Earth is not in danger of being hit by an asteroid in the near future, NASA and the European Space Agency said Tuesday.
The proclamations from the two agencies came after an asteroid dubbed 2024 YR4, discovered in December, had scientists speculating that it could strike Earth in December 2032.
Scientists now project the asteroid will simply fly past our planet. That’s a good thing, because an asteroid that big, measuring 40 to 90 meters across, could cause a lot of damage.
After two months of observation, scientists have significantly reduced the odds of the asteroid hitting Earth. At one point the likelihood of a strike was as high as 3%. ESA has reduced the odds to 0.001%, while NASA has reduced its odds to 0.0027%.
“That’s the outcome we expected all along, although we couldn’t be 100% sure that it would happen,” said Paul Chodas, who heads up NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.
The odds changed because the world’s telescopes were able to track the asteroid, narrowing where a strike could occur and increasingly ruling out the odds of a direct hit. The asteroid is moving away from Earth and is expected to disappear from view in one or two months.
“While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity” for study, NASA said in a statement.
NASA cautioned, however, that there is a small chance the asteroid could hit the moon in 2032. The probability, according to NASA, of that happening currently stands at 1.7%. NASA’s Chodas thinks those odds will likely dwindle, too.
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