Day: November 20, 2024

BAKU, Azerbaijan — Human-caused climate change made Atlantic hurricanes about 29 kilometers per hour (18 miles per hour) stronger in the last six years, a new scientific study found Wednesday. 

For most of the storms — 40 of them — the extra oomph from warmer oceans made the storms jump an entire hurricane category, according to the study published in the journal, Environmental Research: Climate. A Category 5 storm causes more than 400 times the damage of a minimal Category 1 hurricane, more than 140 times the damage of a minimal Category 3 hurricane and more than five times the damage of a minimal Category 4 storm, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 

For three storms, including this month’s Rafael, the climate change factor goosed wind speed so much that the winds increased by two storm categories. 

This isn’t about more storms but increasing power from the worst ones, authors said. 

“We know that the intensity of these storms is causing a lot more catastrophic damage in general,” said lead study author Daniel Gifford, a climate scientist at Climate Central, which does research on global warming. “Damages do scale [up] with the intensity.” 

The effect was especially noticeable in stronger storms, including those that made it to the top of the Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity: Category 5, study authors said. The study looked at 2019 to 2023, but the authors then did a quick addition for the named storms this year, all of which had a bump up due to climate change. 

“We had two Category 5 storms here in 2024,” Gifford said. “Our analysis shows that we would have had zero Category 5 storms without human-caused climate change.” 

This year’s three most devastating storms — Beryl, Helene and Milton — increased by 29 kph (18 mph), 26 kph (16 mph) and 39 kph (24 mph) respectively because of climate change, the authors said. A different study by World Weather Attribution had deadly Helene’s wind speed increase by about 20 kph (13 mph), which is close, said Imperial College London climate scientist Friederike Otto, who coordinates the WWA team and praised the Climate Central work. 

“It absolutely makes sense from a fundamental standpoint that what’s going on is we’ve added more energy to the system,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Rick Spinrad said at United Nations climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan. 

“The change is going to manifest in terms of what we’re already seeing. You look at Hurricane Helene, which was massive, 804 km [500 miles] across. We’re going to see changes in terms of the velocity of these storms. We’re going to see changes in terms of Hurricane Milton spawning so many tornadoes.” 

Since 2019, eight storms — 2019’s Humberto, 2020’s Zeta, 2021’s Sam and Larry, 2022’s Earl, 2023’s Franklin and 2024’s Isaac and Rafael — increased by at least 40 kph (25 mph) in wind speed. Humberto and Zeta gained the most: 50 kph (31 mph). 

In 85% of the storms studied in the last six years, the authors saw a fingerprint of climate change in storm strength, Gifford said. 

Warm water is the main fuel of hurricanes. The warmer the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico get, the more potential energy goes into storms. Other factors — such as high-level crosswinds and dry air — can act to weaken hurricanes. 

The waters in the hurricane area have increased by 1.1 to 1.6 degrees Celsius (2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit) in general and as much as 2.2 degrees C (4 degrees F) due to climate change, Gifford said. They know this because Climate Central has used scientifically accepted techniques to regularly track how much warmer oceans are because of the burning of coal, oil and natural gas. 

That technique basically uses computer simulations to create a fictional world with no human-caused warming and then compares it to current reality, with the difference being caused by greenhouse gases. They account for other factors, such as the lessening amount of sulfate pollution from marine shipping which had been counteracting a bit of the warming before the skies cleared up more. 

To go from warmer waters to stronger storms, the authors looked at a calculation called potential intensity, which is essentially the speed limit for any given storm based on the environmental conditions around it, Gifford said. 

MIT hurricane expert and meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel, who pioneered potential intensity measurements, wasn’t part of the study but said it makes sense. It shows the increase in storm strength that he predicted would happen 37 years ago, he said. 

Past studies have shown that climate change has made hurricanes intensify quicker, and move slower, which causes even more rain to be dumped.
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NEW YORK — Distant, ancient galaxies are giving scientists more hints that a mysterious force called dark energy may not be what they thought.

Astronomers know that the universe is being pushed apart at an accelerating rate and they have puzzled for decades over what could possibly be speeding everything up. They theorize that a powerful, constant force is at play, one that fits nicely with the main mathematical model that describes how the universe behaves. But they can’t see it and they don’t know where it comes from, so they call it dark energy.

It is so vast it is thought to make up nearly 70% of the universe — while ordinary matter like all the stars and planets and people make up just 5%.

But findings published earlier this year by an international research collaboration of more than 900 scientists from around the globe yielded a major surprise. As the scientists analyzed how galaxies move they found that the force pushing or pulling them around did not seem to be constant. And the same group published a new, broader set of analyses Tuesday that yielded a similar answer.

“I did not think that such a result would happen in my lifetime,” said Mustapha Ishak-Boushaki, a cosmologist at the University of Texas at Dallas who is part of the collaboration.

Called the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, it uses a telescope based in Tucson, Arizona to create a three-dimensional map of the universe’s 11-billion-year history to see how galaxies have clustered throughout time and across space. That gives scientists information about how the universe evolved, and where it might be heading.

The map they are building would not make sense if dark energy were a constant force, as it is theorized. Instead, the energy appears to be changing or weakening over time. If that is indeed the case, it would upend astronomers’ standard cosmological model. It could mean that dark energy is very different than what scientists thought — or that there may be something else altogether going on.

“It’s a time of great excitement, and also some head-scratching and confusion,” said Bhuvnesh Jain, a cosmologist at the University of Pennsylvania who is not involved with the research.

The collaboration’s latest finding points to a possible explanation from an older theory: that across billions of years of cosmic history, the universe expanded and galaxies clustered as Einstein’s general relativity predicted.

The new findings aren’t definitive. Astronomers say they need more data to overturn a theory that seemed to fit together so well. They hope observations from other telescopes and new analyses of the new data over the next few years will determine whether the current view of dark energy stands or falls.

“The significance of this result right now is tantalizing,” said Robert Caldwell, a physicist at Dartmouth College who is not involved with the research, “but it’s not like a gold-plated measurement.”

There’s a lot riding on the answer. Because dark energy is the biggest component of the universe, its behavior determines the universe’s fate, explained David Spergel, an astrophysicist and president of the Simons Foundation. If dark energy is constant, the universe will continue to expand, forever getting colder and emptier. If it’s growing in strength, the universe will expand so speedily that it’ll destroy itself in what astronomers call the Big Rip.

“Not to panic. If this is what’s going on, it won’t happen for billions of years,” he said. “But we’d like to know about it.”
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WASHINGTON — Pakistan’s top cleric has declared that virtual private networks, or VPNs, are unlawful, igniting a debate on privacy rights and access to information amid a government crackdown on the internet.

Allama Raghib Naeemi, head of the Council of Islamic Ideology (CII), issued a decree saying it makes no difference whether a VPN is registered or unregistered.

“If attempts are made to access indecent or immoral sites, character assassination is done, statements are being made against national security, or if various incidents of religious blasphemy are being spread through it, then [using] it would completely be un-Islamic,” he said.

A VPN protects online privacy by creating a secure connection and is used to access blocked content, protect data from hackers and support remote work or secure transactions.

Several internet service providers in Pakistan expressed concerns Tuesday over the possible imposition of blanket restrictions on VPNs, warning that the move would anger users and impact online businesses.

Shahzad Arshad, chairman of the Wireless and Internet Service Providers Association of Pakistan, said in a statement, “It is essential to recognize that blanket restrictions or sweeping narratives around tools like VPNs risk alienating segments of society, particularly those who rely on these tools for entirely legitimate purposes, such as IT exports, financial transactions, and academic research.”

Arshad, in reference to CII’s declaration, said technology is neutral and that how it is used determines whether it is aligned with ethics.

Amnesty Tech, part of Amnesty International, said last week on X that imposing restrictions on VPNs would amount to “violating the right to privacy under international law, restricting people’s access to information, and suppressing free expression.”

Qibla Ayaz, former chairman of CII, told VOA Deewa it seems as if a government agency has reached out to the religious body seeking its stance on the VPN issue.

“Similar requests were sent by the government in 2023,” he said. 

The CII is a constitutional body in Pakistan that advises the legislature on whether a certain law is repugnant to Islam, namely to the Quran and Sunna.

According to activists and experts, CII’s declarations on technology use are unwarranted and will only strengthen the government’s digital suppression of social media users.

Haroon Baloch, a Pakistani digital rights activist, believes the proposed restrictions on VPNs are aimed at suppressing political dissent.

“First, the government had compliance challenges with X. And when the platform did not agree with the government’s requests, then it banned X. And when X was available with the help of VPN, the government is planning to ban the VPN now,” Haroon told VOA.

Pakistan banned X in February and installed firewalls to restrict access to certain online content. But consumers are using VPNs to access restricted networks and content and to hide their identities and locations. 

Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir told a gathering at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute on November 16 that technology has played a pivotal role in the dissemination of information, but “the spread of misleading and incorrect information has become a significant challenge.”

In a speech to religious leaders in Islamabad earlier in August, Munir said, “Anarchy is spread through social media.”

A directive in October from the Interior Ministry asked the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority to block “illegal” VPNs that had not registered by the end of November.

The Interior Ministry charged in a letter to the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority, which oversees the internet and mobile industry and has broad powers over online content and the licensing of service providers, that terrorists are increasingly using VPNs to facilitate violent activities and financial transactions in Pakistan.

“Of late, an alarming fact has been identified, wherein VPNs are used by terrorists to obscure and conceal their communications,” the letter said, adding that pornography sites are frequently accessed using VPNs.

“These trends … warrant the prohibition of unauthorized virtual private networks in order to address critical threats,” the letter said.

The 2024 “Freedom on the Net” report published by Freedom House says the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority has historically implemented policies that undermine internet freedom, removed content without a transparent process and instituted wholesale bans on platforms.

This story originated in VOA’s Deewa Service.
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WASHINGTON — Pakistan’s top cleric has declared that virtual private networks, or VPNs, are unlawful, igniting a debate on privacy rights and access to information amid a government crackdown on the internet.

Allama Raghib Naeemi, head of the Council of Islamic Ideology (CII), issued a decree saying it makes no difference whether a VPN is registered or unregistered.

“If attempts are made to access indecent or immoral sites, character assassination is done, statements are being made against national security, or if various incidents of religious blasphemy are being spread through it, then [using] it would completely be un-Islamic,” he said.

A VPN protects online privacy by creating a secure connection and is used to access blocked content, protect data from hackers and support remote work or secure transactions.

Several internet service providers in Pakistan expressed concerns Tuesday over the possible imposition of blanket restrictions on VPNs, warning that the move would anger users and impact online businesses.

Shahzad Arshad, chairman of the Wireless and Internet Service Providers Association of Pakistan, said in a statement, “It is essential to recognize that blanket restrictions or sweeping narratives around tools like VPNs risk alienating segments of society, particularly those who rely on these tools for entirely legitimate purposes, such as IT exports, financial transactions, and academic research.”

Arshad, in reference to CII’s declaration, said technology is neutral and that how it is used determines whether it is aligned with ethics.

Amnesty Tech, part of Amnesty International, said last week on X that imposing restrictions on VPNs would amount to “violating the right to privacy under international law, restricting people’s access to information, and suppressing free expression.”

Qibla Ayaz, former chairman of CII, told VOA Deewa it seems as if a government agency has reached out to the religious body seeking its stance on the VPN issue.

“Similar requests were sent by the government in 2023,” he said. 

The CII is a constitutional body in Pakistan that advises the legislature on whether a certain law is repugnant to Islam, namely to the Quran and Sunna.

According to activists and experts, CII’s declarations on technology use are unwarranted and will only strengthen the government’s digital suppression of social media users.

Haroon Baloch, a Pakistani digital rights activist, believes the proposed restrictions on VPNs are aimed at suppressing political dissent.

“First, the government had compliance challenges with X. And when the platform did not agree with the government’s requests, then it banned X. And when X was available with the help of VPN, the government is planning to ban the VPN now,” Haroon told VOA.

Pakistan banned X in February and installed firewalls to restrict access to certain online content. But consumers are using VPNs to access restricted networks and content and to hide their identities and locations. 

Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir told a gathering at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute on November 16 that technology has played a pivotal role in the dissemination of information, but “the spread of misleading and incorrect information has become a significant challenge.”

In a speech to religious leaders in Islamabad earlier in August, Munir said, “Anarchy is spread through social media.”

A directive in October from the Interior Ministry asked the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority to block “illegal” VPNs that had not registered by the end of November.

The Interior Ministry charged in a letter to the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority, which oversees the internet and mobile industry and has broad powers over online content and the licensing of service providers, that terrorists are increasingly using VPNs to facilitate violent activities and financial transactions in Pakistan.

“Of late, an alarming fact has been identified, wherein VPNs are used by terrorists to obscure and conceal their communications,” the letter said, adding that pornography sites are frequently accessed using VPNs.

“These trends … warrant the prohibition of unauthorized virtual private networks in order to address critical threats,” the letter said.

The 2024 “Freedom on the Net” report published by Freedom House says the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority has historically implemented policies that undermine internet freedom, removed content without a transparent process and instituted wholesale bans on platforms.

This story originated in VOA’s Deewa Service.
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