Day: October 16, 2024

LONDON — Some of the most prominent artificial intelligence models are falling short of European regulations in key areas such as cybersecurity resilience and discriminatory output, according to data seen by Reuters.

The EU had long debated new AI regulations before OpenAI released ChatGPT to the public in late 2022. The record-breaking popularity and ensuing public debate over the supposed existential risks of such models spurred lawmakers to draw up specific rules around “general-purpose” AIs.

Now a new tool designed by Swiss startup LatticeFlow and partners, and supported by European Union officials, has tested generative AI models developed by big tech companies like Meta and OpenAI across dozens of categories in line with the bloc’s wide-sweeping AI Act, which is coming into effect in stages over the next two years.

Awarding each model a score between 0 and 1, a leaderboard published by LatticeFlow on Wednesday showed models developed by Alibaba, Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta and Mistral all received average scores of 0.75 or above.

However, the company’s “Large Language Model (LLM) Checker” uncovered some models’ shortcomings in key areas, spotlighting where companies may need to divert resources in order to ensure compliance.

Companies failing to comply with the AI Act will face fines of $38 million or 7% of global annual turnover.

Mixed results

At present, the EU is still trying to establish how the AI Act’s rules around generative AI tools like ChatGPT will be enforced, convening experts to craft a code of practice governing the technology by spring 2025.

But LatticeFlow’s test, developed in collaboration with researchers at Swiss university ETH Zurich and Bulgarian research institute INSAIT, offers an early indicator of specific areas where tech companies risk falling short of the law.

For example, discriminatory output has been a persistent issue in the development of generative AI models, reflecting human biases around gender, race and other areas when prompted.

When testing for discriminatory output, LatticeFlow’s LLM Checker gave OpenAI’s “GPT-3.5 Turbo” a relatively low score of 0.46. For the same category, Alibaba Cloud’s 9988.HK “Qwen1.5 72B Chat” model received only a 0.37.

Testing for “prompt hijacking,” a type of cyberattack in which hackers disguise a malicious prompt as legitimate to extract sensitive information, the LLM Checker awarded Meta’s “Llama 2 13B Chat” model a score of 0.42. In the same category, French startup Mistral’s “8x7B Instruct” model received 0.38.

“Claude 3 Opus,” a model developed by Google-backed Anthropic, received the highest average score, 0.89.

The test was designed in line with the text of the AI Act, and will be extended to encompass further enforcement measures as they are introduced. LatticeFlow said the LLM Checker would be freely available for developers to test their models’ compliance online.

Petar Tsankov, the firm’s CEO and cofounder, told Reuters the test results were positive overall and offered companies a roadmap for them to fine-tune their models in line with the AI Act.

“The EU is still working out all the compliance benchmarks, but we can already see some gaps in the models,” he said. “With a greater focus on optimizing for compliance, we believe model providers can be well-prepared to meet regulatory requirements.”

Meta declined to comment. Alibaba, Anthropic, Mistral, and OpenAI did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

While the European Commission cannot verify external tools, the body has been informed throughout the LLM Checker’s development and described it as a “first step” in putting the new laws into action.

A spokesperson for the European Commission said: “The Commission welcomes this study and AI model evaluation platform as a first step in translating the EU AI Act into technical requirements.”
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LONDON — The world is on the brink of a new age of electricity with fossil fuel demand set to peak by the end of the decade, meaning surplus oil and gas supplies could drive investment into green energy, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.

But it also flagged a high level of uncertainty as conflicts embroil the oil and gas-producing Middle East and Russia and as countries representing half of global energy demand have elections in 2024.

“In the second half of this decade, the prospect of more ample – or even surplus – supplies of oil and natural gas, depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve, would move us into a very different energy world,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a release alongside its annual report.

Surplus fossil fuel supplies would likely lead to lower prices and could enable countries to dedicate more resources to clean energy, moving the world into an “age of electricity,” Birol said.

In the nearer term, there is also the possibility of reduced supplies should the Middle East conflict disrupt oil flows.

The IEA said such conflicts highlighted the strain on the energy system and the need for investment to speed up the transition to “cleaner and more secure technologies.”

A record-high level of clean energy came online globally last year, the IEA said, including more than 560 gigawatts (GW) of renewable power capacity. Around $2 trillion is expected to be invested in clean energy in 2024, almost double the amount invested in fossil fuels.

In its scenario based on current government policies, global oil demand peaks before 2030 at just less than 102 million barrels/day (mb/d), and then falls back to 2023 levels of 99 mb/d by 2035, largely because of lower demand from the transport sector as electric vehicle use increases.

The report also lays out the likely impact on future oil prices if stricter environmental policies are implemented globally to combat climate change.

In the IEA’s current policies scenario, oil prices decline to $75 per barrel in 2050 from $82 per barrel in 2023.

That compares to $25 per barrel in 2050 should government actions fall in line with the goal of cutting energy sector emissions to net zero by then.

Although the report forecasts an increase in demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) of 145 billion cubic meters (bcm) between 2023 and 2030, it said this would be outpaced by an increase in export capacity of around 270 bcm over the same period.

“The overhang in LNG capacity looks set to create a very competitive market at least until this is worked off, with prices in key importing regions averaging $6.5-8 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) to 2035,” the report said.

Asian LNG prices, regarded as an international benchmark are currently around $13 mmBtu.
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As energy-hungry computer data centers and artificial intelligence programs place ever greater demands on the U.S. power grid, tech companies are looking to a technology that just a few years ago appeared ready to be phased out: nuclear energy. 

After several decades in which investment in new nuclear facilities in the U.S. had slowed to a crawl, tech giants Microsoft and Google have recently announced investments in the technology, aimed at securing a reliable source of emissions-free power for years into the future.  

Earlier this year, online retailer Amazon, which has an expansive cloud computing business, announced it had reached an agreement to purchase a nuclear energy-fueled data center in Pennsylvania and that it had plans to buy more in the future. 

However, the three companies’ strategies rely on somewhat different approaches to the problem of harnessing nuclear energy, and it remains unclear which, if any, will be successful. 

Energy demand 

Data centers, which concentrate thousands of powerful computers in one location, consume prodigious amounts of power, both to run the computers themselves and to operate the elaborate systems put in place to dissipate the large amount of heat they generate.  

A recent study by Goldman Sachs estimated that data centers currently consume between 1% and 2% of all available power generation. That percentage is expected to at least double by the end of the decade, even accounting for new power sources coming online. The study projected a 160% increase in data center power consumption by 2030. 

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that the largest data centers can consume more than 100 megawatts of electricity, or enough to power about 80,000 homes. 

Small, modular reactors 

Google’s plan is, in some ways, the most radical departure — both from the current structure of the energy grid and from traditional means of generating nuclear power. The internet search giant announced on Monday that it has partnered with Kairos Power to fund the construction of up to seven small-scale nuclear reactors that, across several locations, would combine to generate 500 megawatts of power. 

The small modular reactors (SMRs) are a new, and largely untested, technology. Unlike sprawling nuclear plants, SMRs are compact, requiring much less infrastructure to keep them operational and safe. 

“The smaller size and modular design can reduce construction timelines, allow deployment in more places, and make the final project delivery more predictable,” Google and Kairos said in a press release.  

The companies said they intend to have the first of the SMRs online by 2030, with the rest to follow by 2035. 

Great promise 

Sola Talabi, president of Pittsburgh Technical, a nuclear consulting firm, told VOA that SMR technology holds great promise for the future. He said that the plants’ small size will eliminate many of the safety concerns that larger reactors present. 

For example, some smaller reactors generate so much less heat than larger reactors that they can utilize “passive” cooling systems that are not susceptible to the kind of mechanical failures that caused disaster at Japan’s Fukushima plant in 2011 and the Soviet Union’s Chernobyl plant in 1986.  

Talabi, who is also an adjunct faculty member in nuclear engineering at the University of Pittsburgh and University of Michigan, said that SMRs’ modular nature will allow for rapid deployment and substantial cost savings as time goes on. 

“Pretty much every reactor that has been built [so far] has been built like it’s the first one,” he said. “But with these reactors, because we will be able to use the same processes, the same facilities, to produce them, we actually expect that we will be able to … achieve deployment scale relatively quickly.” 

Raising doubts 

Not all experts are convinced that SMRs are going to live up to expectations. 

Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear power safety for the Union of Concerned Scientists, told VOA that the Kairos reactors Google is hoping to install use a new technology that has never been tested under real-world conditions.

“At this point, it’s just hope without any real basis in experimental fact to believe that this is going to be a productive and reliable solution for the need to power data centers over the medium term,” he said. 

He pointed out that the large-scale deployment of new nuclear reactors will also result in the creation of a new source of nuclear waste, which the U.S. is still struggling to find a way to dispose of at scale.  

“I think what we’re seeing is really a bubble — a nuclear bubble — which I suspect is going to be deflated once these optimistic, hopeful agreements turn out to be much harder to execute,” Lyman said. 

Three Mile Island 

Microsoft and Amazon have plotted a more conventional path toward powering their data centers with nuclear energy. 

In its announcement last month, Microsoft revealed that it has reached an agreement with Constellation Energy to restart a mothballed nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania and to use the power it produces for its data operations. 

Three Mile Island is best known as the site of the worst nuclear disaster in U.S. history. In 1979, the site’s Unit 2 reactor suffered a malfunction that resulted in radioactive gases and iodine being released into the local environment.  

However, the facility’s Unit 1 reactor did not fail, and it operated safely for several decades. It was shut down in 2019, after cheap shale gas drove the price of energy down so far that it made further operations economically unfeasible. 

It is expected to cost $1.6 billion to bring the reactor back online, and Microsoft has agreed to fund that investment. It has also signed an agreement to purchase power from the facility for 20 years. The companies say they believe that they can bring the facility back online by 2028. 

Amazon’s plan, by contrast, does not require either new technology or the resurrection of an older nuclear facility. 

The data center that the company purchased from Talen Energy is located on the same site as the fully operational Susquehanna nuclear plant in Salem, Pennsylvania, and draws power directly from it. 

Amazon characterized the $650 million investment as part of a larger effort to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2040. 
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