Day: February 1, 2024

ST. PETERSBURG, Florida — The “cone of uncertainty” produced by the National Hurricane Center to forecast the location and ferocity of a tropical storm is getting an update this year to include predictions for inland areas, where wind and flooding are sometimes more treacherous than damage to the coasts. 

The Miami-based hurricane center said Thursday on the X social media platform that the new, experimental forecast tool will be ready around August 15, just before the traditional peak of the hurricane season that begins June 1. 

“This experimental graphic will help better convey wind hazard risk inland in addition to coastal wind hazards,” the center said in the post. 

The traditional cone in use for years generally shows the forecast track of a hurricane or tropical storm but is focused on wind and storm surge along the coasts — and forecasters always warn not to focus on the center line alone. Heavy rains and strong winds can be deadly and cause significant damage inland, which happened in 2022 with Hurricane Ian, when 149 people died in Florida. 

The goal of the expanded forecast cone is to make sure people who don’t live along a coast are aware of the dangers they could still face, said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the hurricane center. The new cone features colors to show which places face threats in a much broader way than before. If someone lives in one of those areas, “you are under risk,” Rhome said. 

There’s growing evidence that the impacts of climate change — such as rising sea levels — are making the most severe hurricanes even more intense and increasing the likelihood that a developing hurricane will rapidly intensify and lead to more flooding and more powerful storm surges battering coastlines, experts say. 

After Ian blasted across the Fort Myers, Florida, area — where the most people died and the worst damage was caused — the storm kept dumping rain and toppling trees across a wide swath of the state of Florida. Floods were reported around Orlando and its theme parks, south to Kissimmee, east to Daytona Beach, and in central Florida’s cattle and citrus country. 

Ian produced between 10 and 20 inches (51 centimeters) of rain across much of central Florida, the hurricane center reported. 

People near rivers were deeply and possibly unexpectedly affected. After Ian slogged through inland DeSoto County and the Peace River flooded the community, Fire Chief Chad Jorgensen urged residents to flee, saying the river was unpredictable and dangerous. 

The first named storm of 2024 will be Alberto. The 2023 season saw 20 named storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including seven hurricanes. Only Hurricane Idalia struck the U.S., coming ashore in the lightly populated Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf Coast but also causing significant inland flooding. 
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Geneva — New cancer cases are projected to rise by 77% to more than 35 million in 2050 from an estimated 20 million new cases and 9.7 million deaths in 2022, according to new data released Thursday by the World Health Organization’s cancer agency, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).

The report, which is being issued ahead of World Cancer Day February 4, projects the greatest relative increases in cancer cases will occur in lower human development index (HDI) settings. That is a reference to a tool developed by the United Nations to measure a country’s level of social and economic development.

“We expect the global population of the world to rise from eight billion currently in 2022 to almost 10 billion, 9.7 billion, by 2050 and this will have a large impact on the number of new cancer cases,” said Freddie Bray, head of the cancer surveillance branch at IARC.

“You will see a 142% increase in cancer cases predicted by 2050 in low HDI countries. These are the countries that have fewer resources to manage the cancer burden,” he said, noting that cancer deaths likewise are projected to almost double in 2050.

The report cites tobacco, alcohol, and obesity as key factors behind the increasing global incidence of cancer, with air pollution a major environmental risk factor.

New estimates show lung cancer to be the most commonly occurring cancer worldwide with 2.5 million new cases in 2022. Female breast cancer ranked a close second, followed by colorectal, prostate, and stomach cancers.

The report said breast cancer was the most diagnosed and leading cause of death for women. For men it was lung cancer.

Bray observed that, “One in five men and one in five women will develop cancer in a lifetime and around one in nine men and one in 12 women will develop and die from the disease.”

The global estimates reveal striking inequities in the cancer burden, with people in poorer, less developed countries most at risk. Isabelle Soerjomataram, deputy head of the cancer surveillance branch at IARC, says that is particularly true for breast cancer.

“Women in lower HDI countries are 50% less likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer than women in high HDI countries, yet they are at a much higher risk of dying of the disease due to late diagnosis and inadequate access to quality treatment,” she said.

A World Health Organization survey of 115 countries shows most countries do not adequately finance cancer and palliative care services, as part of universal health coverage, a situation that disproportionately affects underserved, poorer populations.

“Health care expenditure, particularly in cancer is increasing,” said Andre Ilbawi, WHO technical lead on cancer. “New technologies, population aging, and more people accessing more complex services are straining health budgets. Out of pocket payment in cancer is high and often push families into poverty,”

When people diagnosed with cancer are told they must pay out of pocket, Ilbawi said they are less likely to seek help, receive treatment and complete their care.

“That makes cancer more deadly and more expensive for economies, particularly as the burden of cancer increases,” he said, noting that governments can break this cycle by investing in cancer services.

“Cancer does not need to be expensive and should not be a death sentence,” he said.

“This is not the time to turn away. This is the time to double down and make those investments in cancer prevention and control or else we will be dealing with inequities that are even worse than what we see today.”

Soerjomataram also stressed the urgency of investing in prevention to address the growing global cancer burden and global inequities in cancer outcomes.

“Investing in prevention is becoming very key because we cannot treat our way out of cancer,” she said. “Treatment and providing access to care is important in preventing cancer so that no one is suffering from it.”
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TOKYO — After a brief awakening, Japan’s Moon lander is out of action again but will resume its mission if it survives the two-week lunar night, the space agency said Thursday.

The unmanned Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) touched down last month at a wonky angle that left its solar panels facing the wrong way.

As the sun’s angle shifted, it came back to life for two days this week and carried out scientific observations of a crater with its high-spec camera.

“After completing operation from 1/30 (to) 1/31, #SLIM entered a two-week dormancy period during the long lunar night,” space agency JAXA said on X, formerly Twitter.

“Although SLIM was not designed for the harsh lunar nights, we plan to try to operate again from mid-February, when the Sun will shine again on SLIM’s solar cells.”

JAXA said SLIM was able to “successfully complete observations… as originally planned” with its multiband spectroscopic camera and could study more target areas than initially expected.

The space agency also on Thursday posted a black-and-white photo of the rocky surface taken by the spacecraft.

It followed other grainy images sent back from the mission to investigate an exposed area of the moon’s mantle, the inner layer usually deep beneath its crust.

SLIM, dubbed the “Moon Sniper” for its precision landing technology, touched down within its target landing zone on Jan. 20.

The feat was a boon for Japan’s space program after a string of recent failures, making the nation only the fifth to achieve a “soft landing” on the moon, after the United States, the Soviet Union, China and India.

But during its descent, the craft suffered engine problems and ended up on its side, meaning the solar panels were facing west instead of up.

Russia, China and other countries from South Korea to the United Arab Emirates are also trying their luck to reach the moon.

U.S. firm Astrobotic’s Peregrine lunar lander began leaking fuel after takeoff in January, dooming its mission. It likely burned up in the Earth’s atmosphere on its return.

NASA has also postponed plans for crewed lunar missions under its Artemis program.
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