Day: August 10, 2018

The White House issued a proclamation Friday evening officially announcing the doubling of steel tariffs on Turkey, slated to go into effect Monday.

Earlier Friday, the Turkish lira suffered its worst one-day loss in a decade after President Donald Trump announced the United States would hike metals tariffs, prompting investor confidence to slump.

Trump announced the doubling of aluminum and steel tariffs in a tweet Friday morning, citing bilateral strains.

Ties between the countries have been strained, as Washington is urging Ankara to release Andrew Brunson. The American pastor is currently held under house arrest on terrorism charges. The White House dismisses the charges as baseless and accused Ankara of hostage taking. Turkey wants Brunson to stand trial.

The Brunson dispute triggered the collapse in the Turkish currency as investors feared U.S. financial sanctions. All week the lira has been under pressure, which accelerated with the failure of diplomatic talks in Washington this week.

‘Just the stick’​

U.S. patience with Turkey is seen to have ended, experts say.

“Most of the actors in the Washington scene think that carrots just don’t work with Turkey, just the stick,” said political analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners.

Friday saw the lira falling more than 15 percent, bringing the decline to more than 40 percent since the beginning of the year. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressed supporters in the provincial city of Bayburt.

“We will not lose the economic war,” Erdogan said Friday. “Turkey will fight economic hitmen just as it fought the coup plotters.”

The Turkish president alleged Western powers are seeking to oust him from power through the creation of a financial crisis, after failing to so during a 2016 coup attempt.

“Some countries have engaged in behavior that protects coup plotters and knows no laws or justice,” he said. “Relations with countries who behave like this have reached a point beyond salvaging.”

Analysts suggest Erdogan could have Washington in mind, given Ankara is demanding the extradition of U.S.-based Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, who is blamed for masterminding the botched 2016 military take over.

Erdogan’s claim of a Western political plot against him sparked alarm in investors and prompted an acceleration in the currency sell-off.

Ankara is under pressure to adopt orthodox steps to protect the lira by aggressively increasing interest rates to rein in double-digit inflation, a move Erdogan has publicly opposed.

Adding to investors’ concerns, Erdogan pledged a continuation of his debt-fueled construction policy to boost the economy, which is blamed for Turkey’s rampant inflation and has added to currency weakness.

‘A national struggle’

The Turkish president Friday dismissed such concerns and called for people to defend the currency.

“Those who have dollars, euros or gold under their pillows should go and exchange them into (Turkish) lira. This is a national struggle. This will be my nation’s response to those who have declared an economic war,” Erdogan said during a rally of supporters.

The drop in the lira has put increasing pressure on Turkish banks, given that many companies have borrowed heavily in foreign currency. Corporate foreign currency loans are around $250 billion, much of which is due to be repaid in a year.

“I don’t think foreign banks will be willing to lend to Turkish banks. There are so many rumors percolating that large companies are going bankrupt,” said analyst Yesilada. “I am afraid there will be a bank run in Turkey, people rushing to withdraw their deposits.”

The Turkish president his indicated possible support from Beijing and Moscow, but analysts are skeptical given the scale of support the Turkish economy needs.

But the souring in U.S.-Turkey relations could give new strength to Russia-Turkey ties, already a source of concern among Turkey’s Western allies.

“There are historical and geopolitical reasons for limits with relations with Moscow, limits I think we’ve reached,” said international relations expert Soli Ozel of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University. “But if the United States can’t handle relations with Turkey … then a further deepening of relations with Moscow is an option. It may be not the best, but it is an option.”
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A threat of more U.S. sanctions has sent the ruble tumbling to its weakest since mid-2016 but authorities are not expected to leap to the currency’s defense after weathering a similar storm in April, analysts said.

The ruble crashed to 67.67 versus the dollar on Friday, losing more than 6 percent of its value in just one week, as the United States said it would impose fresh sanctions against Moscow.

The ruble’s slide was akin to its drop in April when, also battered by sanctions from Washington, it lost 12 percent in just a few days.

Lack of action

The lack of action by authorities back then is convincing market players now that they will not intervene this time either.

“When we think about what has happened in April, when sanctions were introduced and we saw a similar reaction in the ruble … this is not a move in the ruble that would make policy makers extremely worried,” said Tilmann Kolb, an emerging market analyst at UBS Global Wealth Management in Zurich.

Liza Ermolenko, an economist at Barclays in London, said that given the central bank refrained from intervening in the market in April, it is clear that a more sudden and deeper drop in the ruble would be required to make it step in now.

The authorities have made few public comments on the latest falls, which started on Wednesday, when the U.S. State Department announced a new round of sanctions that pushed the ruble to two-year lows and sparked a wider sell-off over fears Russia was locked in a spiral of never-ending sanctions.

Last intervention in 2014

On Friday the central bank said it had tools to prevent risks to financial stability, without specifying what they were.

The central bank, which last intervened in the market and raised rates to save the ruble from tanking in 2014, described the ruble’s drop on news about more U.S. sanctions as natural reaction.

As in April, the central bank has reduced its daily buying of foreign currency for state reserves this week to lift extra pressure from the ruble, which has fallen by around 15 percent versus the dollar so far this year.

“Authorities do not set a goal of avoiding a ruble drop at the moment. That’s why they won’t do anything,” said Pyotr Milovanov, currency trader at Metallinvestbank in Moscow.

Analysts say the other possible option to support the ruble would be a hike to the key interest rate, now at 7.25 percent, but this also seems to be off the table for now.

Rate hikes?

“At this stage we don’t expect policymakers to resort to rate hikes,” Ermolenko from Barclays said.

Kolb from UBS said he would “expect a bigger reaction if we got perhaps towards 70 (rubles per dollar) but this also depends on how we get there, if at all.”

“I wouldn’t expect Russian policymakers to use their available tools to support the ruble at current levels,” he said.
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Consumer prices in the U.S. rose a modest 2.9 percent in July from a year ago, as inflation rose gradually but slowly.

Friday’s Labor Department report showed the Consumer Price Index, a broad measure of Americans’ living expenses, increased two-tenths of a percentage point from the previous month. Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, rose at the same pace.

WATCH: Economy Doing Well, But Not All Americans See It That Way

The main driver of inflation in July was higher housing costs. Food expenses increased slightly, while energy, medical care and clothing prices fell modestly.

The data showed that prices were rising a little faster than wages, leaving the buying power of paychecks one-tenth of a percentage point lower today than a year ago, despite an otherwise healthy economy.

Inflation increases and wage declines in the past 12 months can be blamed on higher oil, gasoline and transportation costs, which had remained at relatively low levels for the previous six years.

Keeping inflation in check is the job of the Federal Reserve, the central bank system of the U.S. It tries to do that by raising interest rates, which makes it more expensive to borrow money and tends to cool economic activity. Lower levels of commerce tend to reduce the pressure to raise prices and wages that fuel inflation.

The Fed already has raised interest rates twice this year, and many economists expect two more interest rate hikes this year. Higher borrowing costs, however, would make it more difficult for the economy to sustain the 3 percent growth rate President Donald Trump promised to voters.
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U.S. President Donald Trump further escalated tensions with Turkey Friday by announcing a sharp increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an early morning post on Twitter.

In announcing 20 percent tariffs on aluminum and 50 percent tariffs on steel, Trump said “the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar!”

Trump’s announcement came two days after a Turkish diplomatic delegation visited Washington in a bid to to ease tensions between the two countries.

Analysts have warned that rising U.S.-Turkish tensions are threatening a financial crisis in Turkey.

On Monday, the Turkish lira suffered its most significant drop in a decade following reports the Trump administration was considering ending Turkey’s duty-free access to the U.S. market. Trump’s Friday tweet caused a further drop in the Turkish currency.

U.S.-Turkish tensions began to escalate last week, with Trump targeting two Turkish ministers with sanctions over the detention of U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson. Brunson is currently under house arrest in Turkey while standing trial on terrorism charges.

The White House dismisses the charges as baseless and accused Ankara of hostage taking.

Saying Friday Turkey faced “an economic war,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged citizens to support the lira by exchanging foreign money for the local currency.

“If you have dollars, euros or gold under your pillow, go to banks to exchange them for Turkish lira,” he said on national television. “It is a national fight.”

Erdogan called on Turks to not be concerned about exchange rate movements, mockingly declaring “the dollar, the mollar will not cut our path.”

Erdogan added that Turkey was not afraid of “threats” and said it had many alternative sources of economic cooperation “from Iran, to Russia, to China, and some European countries.”
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