Day: June 1, 2018

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is scheduled to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Washington on Monday amid souring relations between the NATO allies and trading partners over economic and other issues.

The talks come as Turkish sectors, such as the major steel industry, reel from the higher tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration on Turkey and other nations.

“Huge, huge effect, steel producers are desperate, the psychology is terrible among producers,” said Tayfun Senturk, a Turkey-based international steel trader. “For the last three months, there have been no new U.S. orders, and the U.S. is a major market for Turkish producers, especially in piping. If it continues for a few years, there will be closures.”

In March, President Donald Trump introduced 25 percent tariffs on steel from several primary producers. Turkey didn’t enjoy an exemption given to the European Union, Canada and Mexico that ended Friday.

“This is mainly a dispute with China and secondly the European Union. Why was Turkey targeted? I don’t understand,” Senturk said.

Turkey is the eighth-largest steel producer in the world and second only to Germany in Europe. Last year, Turkey was the sixth-largest exporter to the United States.

There are growing suspicions among Turkish steel producers that politics rather than economics is behind the steel tariffs.

“There have been steps by the steel industry to try to build an understanding with the USA. As far as I know, it is not progressing, because of political reasons,” steel trader Senturk said. “They [steel producers] are saying this would not have happened if the situation [between the U.S. and Turkey] was all right like it was 10 years ago.”

In addition to the manufacturing industry, Turkey’s financial sector could be next to feel the repercussions from strained U.S. relations. U.S. regulatory authorities are considering a significant fine against Turkish state-owned Halkbank after one of its senior officials was convicted in a New York court in January of violating U.S. sanctions against Iran.

“Everybody is expecting a huge fine against Halkbank, but this is a political decision,” political scientist Cengiz Aktar said. Analysts predict the fine could exceed the $9 billion imposed on France-based BNP Paribas bank for breaking U.S. sanctions on Iran.

The fallout of such a fine could be considerable given international investors’ concerns about the Turkish economy.

“If we see major sanctions on Turkey, politically driven ones, the pressure on the currency could be substantial,” said economist Inan Demir of Nomura International, a Japan-based financial holding company.

This year the Turkish lira has already fallen more than 20 percent.

Worse could still be in store for Turkey, analysts say. Washington’s withdrawal from the international-brokered nuclear deal with Tehran could put Ankara and Turkish business in a tight spot. Trump has announced the introduction of trade sanctions against Iran. The U.S. has also warned that companies in violation of the measures could become targets themselves.

Ankara appears unfazed by Washington’s warnings.

“It is an opportunity for Turkey,” said Turkish Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci. “We will continue to have trade with Iran while complying with the U.N. resolutions on nuclear activities. We believe in this: The stronger Iran gets in this region, the stronger Turkey becomes as well.”

Analysts suggest Zeybekci’s combative stance could be just political rhetoric, given Turkey is in the midst of campaigning for general and presidential elections set for June 24. Taking a tough stand against Washington is seen to play well with the ruling AKP nationalist voting base.

Complying with U.S. sanctions on Iran, however, could come at a substantial cost for Ankara.

“Turkey is in a difficult position. We have to remember Iran is one of the main actors, along with Russia, providing oil and gas to Turkey,” said former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, who served in Iraq and Washington.

“It will be difficult for Turkish banks and Turkish companies to do business in Iran, but it will be difficult to find an alternative for natural gas and oil from Iran. So Turkey will have to tread carefully,” he added.

The prosecution in Turkey of U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson on terrorism charges threatens further measures by Washington against Ankara.

“It’s a show trial taking place, and it has already hurt the bilateral relationship,” U.S. Ambassador-at-Large Sam Brownback said Wednesday in a press briefing. “I think there will be more items to follow … from the United States towards Turkey if they continue to hold him.”

Ankara says Brunson’s trial is a matter for the courts, but, analysts warn, as U.S.-Turkish relations continue souring, the economic price Ankara will pay is likely to rise.
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U.S. employers extended a streak of solid hiring in May, adding 223,000 jobs and helping lower the unemployment rate to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent.

The Labor Department says average hourly pay rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier, a slightly faster annual rate than in April. But pay growth remains below levels that are typical when the unemployment rate is this low.

Still, the report shows that the nearly 9-year old economic expansion – the second-longest on record – remains on track. Employers appear to be shrugging off recent concerns about global trade disputes.

The job market is also benefiting a wider range of Americans: The unemployment rate for high school graduates reached 3.9 percent, a 17-year low. For black Americans, it hit a record low of 5.9 percent.

The solid hiring data coincides with other evidence that the economy is on firm footing after a brief slowdown in the first three months of the year. The economy grew at a modest 2.2 percent annual rate in the January-March quarter, after three quarters that had averaged roughly 3 percent annually.

Some economists remain concerned that the Trump administration’s aggressive actions on trade could hamper growth. The administration on Thursday imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from key allies in Europe, Canada and Mexico. Earlier in the week, it threatened to hit China with tariffs on $50 billion of its goods.

Still, while Trump has made such threats since March, most employers so far haven’t suspended hiring.

And consumers have started to spend more freely, after having pulled back in the January-March quarter. That gain could reflect in part the effect of the Trump administration’s tax cuts, which might be encouraging more Americans to step up spending. Consumer spending rose in April at its fastest pace in five months.

Some of the spending reflects more money needed to pay higher gas prices, a potential trouble spot for consumers in the coming months. The average price of a gallon of gas nationwide reached $2.96 on Thursday, up 15 cents from a month ago, according to AAA. Some economists calculate that higher gas costs could offset up to one-third of the benefit of the tax cuts.

Companies are spending more on industrial machinery, computers and software _ signs that they’re optimistic enough about future growth to expand their capacity. A measure of business investment rose in the first quarter by the most in 3{ years. That investment growth has been spurred partly by higher oil prices, which have encouraged the construction of more drilling rigs.

Manufacturers have benefited from the healthier business spending and have increased hiring. In April, factories expanded production of turbines and other heavy machinery by the most in seven months.

Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm, says it now foresees the economy expanding at a robust 4 percent annual pace in the April-June quarter, which would be the fastest in nearly four years. That is up from its forecast last week of less than a 3 percent rate for the current quarter.

Yet even with unemployment at an 18-year low, wage growth has been chronically sluggish in most industries, leaving many Americans still struggling to pay bills, particularly as inflation has ticked up. Still, companies are starting to pay more to lure workers from other companies, a trend that could lead to broader pay gains in coming months.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said higher pay for job-switchers tends to augur more robust raises for everyone else.

At the same time, Martha Gimbel, head of economic research at the job listing site Indeed, notes that wages for people who remain in their jobs have actually declined in recent months. That suggests that many employers have yet to worry about their workers being lured away.

 
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Some U.S. trading partners are vowing to retaliate against U.S interests over President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports from the European Union, Canada and Mexico beginning on Friday.
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U.S. employers are thought to have hired at a solid pace in May and helped extend the economy’s nearly nine-year expansion, the second-longest on record, despite uncertainty caused by trade disputes.

Economists have forecast that employers added 190,000 jobs last month and that the unemployment rate remained at a 17-year low of 3.9 percent, according to data provider FactSet.

The Labor Department’s May jobs report will be released at 8:30 a.m. EDT Friday.

Economy firm footing

Solid hiring data would coincide with other evidence that the economy is on firm footing after a brief slowdown in the first three months of the year. The economy grew at a modest 2.2 percent annual rate in the January-March quarter, after three quarters that had averaged roughly 3 percent annually.

Some economists remain concerned that the Trump administration’s aggressive actions on trade could hamper growth. The administration on Thursday imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from key allies in Europe, Canada and Mexico. Earlier in the week, it threatened to hit China with tariffs on $50 billion of its goods.

Still, while Trump has made such threats since March, most employers so far haven’t suspended hiring.

​Consumer spending up

And consumers have started to spend more freely, after having pulled back in the January-March quarter. That gain could reflect in part the effect of the Trump administration’s tax cuts, which might be encouraging more Americans to step up spending. Consumer spending rose in April at its fastest pace in five months.

Some of the spending reflects more money needed to pay higher gas prices, a potential trouble spot for consumers in the coming months. The average price of a gallon of gas nationwide reached $2.96 on Thursday, up 15 cents from a month ago, according to AAA. Some economists calculate that higher gas costs could offset up to one-third of the benefit of the tax cuts.

More hiring, more growth

Companies are spending more on industrial machinery, computers and software, signs that they’re optimistic enough about future growth to expand their capacity. A measure of business investment rose in the first quarter by the most in 3½ years. That investment growth has been spurred partly by higher oil prices, which have encouraged the construction of more drilling rigs.

Manufacturers have benefited from the healthier business spending and have increased hiring. In April, factories expanded production of turbines and other heavy machinery by the most in seven months.

Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm, said Thursday that it now foresees the economy expanding at a robust 4 percent annual pace in the April-June quarter, which would be the fastest in nearly four years. That is up from its forecast last week of less than a 3 percent rate for the current quarter.

Wage growth lagging

Yet even with unemployment at a 17-year low, wage growth has been chronically sluggish in most industries, leaving many Americans still struggling to pay bills, particularly as inflation has ticked up.

Average hourly pay rose just 2.6 percent in April from a year earlier, before adjusting for inflation. That’s far below historic trends: Paychecks were rising at roughly a 4 percent pace in 2000, the last time unemployment was this low.

Still, companies are starting to pay more to lure workers from other companies, a trend that could lead to broader pay gains in coming months. Workers who switched jobs received annual pay increases averaging 4 percent in April, compared with average gains of 2.9 percent for those who stayed in their jobs, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said higher pay for job-switchers tends to augur more robust raises for everyone else.

“Employers will have no choice but to adjust their pay scales to ensure wage parity across their entire workforce,” Zandi said.

At the same time, Martha Gimbel, head of economic research at the job listing site Indeed, notes that wages for people who remain in their jobs have actually declined in recent months. That suggests that many employers have yet to worry about their workers being lured away.
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The United States’ allies in the G-7 vowed Thursday to push back against Washington’s decision to impose tariffs on their steel and aluminum exports, saying as they gathered for a meeting that the move threatens global growth.

The escalating trade conflict between the United States and many key allies will dominate the three-day meeting in Canada of financial leaders from the Group of Seven industrialized nations that began Thursday, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin the top target for their complaints and lobbying.

The United States said it was moving ahead to impose tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum, starting at midnight (0400 GMT Friday), ending months of uncertainty about potential exemptions and sending a chill through financial markets.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire demanded a “permanent and total exemption” from the tariffs and said that European Union countries would respond with their own measures.

The U.S. tariff decision “is unjustified and unjustifiable and will have dangerous consequences for global growth,” Le Maire said in comments to media on his way to the meeting of policymakers from the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada in the mountain resort of Whistler, British Columbia.

His German counterpart, Olaf Scholz, said EU member states would show their unity and sovereignty by acting in a determined way. “Our response should be clear, strong and smart,” Scholz told Reuters.

Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau said the tariffs would color the G-7 meeting.

“There will be some challenging discussions I’m sure,” Morneau told a news conference as top policymakers gathered. “We are not saying there won’t be frictions,” he added. “We’re not saying we won’t have strong words. We’re not saying we won’t be able to send messages.”

Mnuchin, who was not at the introductory discussion panels focused on development and sharing the benefits of global growth, is scheduled to meet individually with many of his global counterparts during the three-day meeting.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the U.S. decision to target trade in goods, not services, was misplaced.

“This focus on goods trade, bilateral goods, is not the right focus in a hyperconnected world where most of the economic activity, most people work, most small businesses, most women work in the service sector,” Carney told a panel.

“If we were to liberalize services to the same degree as we have liberalized [trade in] goods, these balances would be cut in half for the United States and for the U.K.,” Carney added.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said if trade was “massively disrupted,” the level of public trust in leaders would be severely damaged.

“First of all, those who will suffer most are the poorest, the less privileged people, those who actually rely on imported goods to have their living,” she said, adding that long-standing supply chains also would be disrupted.

The U.S. actions on trade policy, which also include potential tariffs and investment restrictions on China and a national security probe that could lead to tariffs on auto imports, are expected to also dominate the G-7 summit of world leaders in Quebec next week. 
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Outside Facebook’s annual shareholders meeting Thursday, a lone protester paced on the sidewalk, carrying a U.S. flag and a sign that read “Zuckerberg destroys shareholder value.”

Above, a small plane pulled a banner that read “You Broke Democracy.”

Inside, Facebook shareholders offered both praise and criticism of the company’s leadership.

The social media giant has been in a constant spotlight over how foreign actors used its service to try to influence elections worldwide. It suffered a double blow when it was revealed that 87 million users’ information had gone to a political consulting firm without the users’ knowledge. 

The company continues to face inquiries from federal and state regulators about privacy and user data issues. And Mark Zuckerberg, its chief executive, recently testified in front of the European Parliament after appearing in front of Congress on the issues.

Shareholders sound off 

Facebook shareholders provided another sort of oversight. Many expressed their displeasure by selling shares in March after it was disclosed that Cambridge Analytica, a political consulting firm, obtained user data without their knowledge. Facebook shares have more than recovered since then, rising 2 percent Thursday to $191.78, which was up 26 percent from the company’s three-month low of $152 in March. 

“We didn’t do enough to see how people could abuse these tools,” Zuckerberg told the shareholders.

“The main thing we need to do right now is take a broader view of our responsibility to the community we serve,” he said.

Investors applauded Zuckerberg several times during the meeting. And they followed the company’s advice and appeared to vote down shareholder proposals, including one that would change the voting power of company shares. Currently, Zuckerberg, 34, and insiders hold a class of stock that gives them more than 60 percent of the voting power. 

Shareholders also appeared to vote against other proposals such as requiring the company to report on its gender pay gap and a content report that would show how the company enforces its terms of service worldwide. (Official results of the tally will be posted in the next several days.)

Despite the defeats, shareholder proposals are worthwhile, said Natasha Lamb, managing partner at Arjuna Capital, an activist investment firm behind two proposals.

They “send a signal to management, send a signal to the board,” she said.

Diversity of ideas 

Amid the applause, there was also sharp criticism. 

“We contend that Facebook’s poor stewardship of user data is tantamount to a human rights violation,” said Christine Jantz, chief investment officer at Northstar Asset Management.

Another investor asked what Facebook was doing to understand political bias among its employees and how that affects decisions about content on the site.

Zuckerberg said the company was “committed to being a platform for all ideas.” 

The company ended the meeting, but not before a shareholder pleaded, “Engage with us on these issues. We are on the same team.” 

Company leaders said they would.

Deana Mitchell contributed to this report.
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