Day: May 3, 2018

A federal grand jury in Detroit has indicted former Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn with conspiracy and wire fraud in the car builder’s scheme to rig diesel emissions tests.

“If you try to deceive the United States, then you will pay a heavy price,” Attorney General Jeff Sessions said Thursday. “The indictment unsealed today alleges that Volkswagen’s scheme to cheat its legal requirements went all the way to the top of the company.”

Winterkorn is alleged to have conspired with other top Volkswagen bosses to defraud the U.S. government and consumers with false claims that the company was complying with the Clean Air Act.

Volkswagen already admitted it installed devices on diesel models designed to turn on pollution control devices during emissions tests and turn them off when the car is driven on actual highways.

Volkswagen was fined $2.5 billion and ordered to recall the affected cars.

Winkerton is the ninth Volkswagen executive or employee to be charged. However, he currently lives in Germany, which has no extradition treaty with the United States, and is unlikely ever to see the inside of the U.S. courtroom.
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The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in March as exports increased to a record high amid a surge in deliveries of commercial aircraft and soybeans, bolstering the economy’s outlook heading into the second quarter.

While other data on Thursday showed a modest increase in new applications for jobless benefits last week, the number of Americans receiving unemployment aid fell to its lowest level since 1973, pointing to tightening labor market conditions.

Wage growth is also rising, with hourly compensation accelerating in the first quarter, more evidence that inflation pressures are building.

“The good news is that we are exporting more, but with the labor markets incredibly tight, labor costs are accelerating as well,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. “The rise in labor costs will undoubtedly factor into policymakers’ thinking when they meet again in June.”

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged. The Fed said policymakers expected “economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong.”

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit tumbled 15.2 percent to $49.0 billion in March, the lowest level since September. The trade gap widened to $57.7 billion in February, which was the highest level since October 2008.

March’s decline ended six straight monthly increases in the trade deficit. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade gap narrowing to $50.0 billion in March.

The politically sensitive goods trade deficit with China dropped 11.6 percent to $25.9 billion, which will probably do little to ease tensions between the United States and China.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs on up to $150 billion worth of Chinese goods to punish Beijing over its joint-venture requirements and other policies Washington says force American companies to surrender their intellectual property to state-backed Chinese competitors.

China, which denies it coerces such technology transfers, has threatened retaliation in equal measure, including tariffs on U.S. soybeans and aircraft. A U.S. trade delegation arrived in China on Thursday for trade talks.

Trump, who claims the United States is being taken advantage of by its trading partners, has already imposed broad tariffs on imported solar panels and large washing machines. He recently slapped 25 percent import duties on steel and 10 percent on aluminum.

The Trump administration argues that the perennial trade deficit is holding back economic growth. The government reported last week that trade contributed 0.20 percentage point to the first quarter’s 2.3 percent annualized growth pace. The economy grew at a 2.9 percent rate in the fourth quarter.

Brightening prospects

Prospects for the economy are brightening. In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended April 28.

Claims remained near a more than 48-year low of 209,000 touched during the week ended April 21. The labor market is considered to be near or at full employment. The unemployment rate is at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent, close to the Fed’s forecast of 3.8 percent by the end of this year.

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 77,000 to 1.76 million in the week ended April 21, the lowest level since December 1973. With labor conditions tightening, wage growth is picking up.

A second report from the Labor Department showed hourly worker compensation accelerated at a 3.4 percent rate in the first quarter after rising at a 2.4 percent pace in the October-December period. It increased at a 2.5 percent rate compared to the first quarter of 2017.

Prices for U.S. Treasuries were trading higher, while the dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies. U.S. stocks were lower.

In March, exports of goods and services increased 2.0 percent to an all-time high of $208.5 billion, lifted by a $1.9 billion increase in shipments of commercial aircraft. There were also increases in exports of soybeans, corn and crude oil. Real goods exports were the highest on record.

Exports to China jumped 26.3 percent in March.

Imports of goods and services fell 1.8 percent to $257.5 billion, in part as the boost from royalties and broadcast license fees related to the Winter Olympics faded. Imports of capital goods fell by $1.5 billion, weighed down by declines in imports of computer accessories, telecommunications equipment and semiconductors.

Imports of consumer goods decreased by $0.9 billion. Crude oil imports dropped by $0.5 billion in March. Imports from China fell 2.1 percent.

Another report from the Commerce Department showed factory goods orders rose 1.6 percent in March after a similar increase in February. The department, however, revised March orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business spending plans, to show them falling 0.4 percent instead of dipping 0.1 percent as reported last month.

Orders for these so-called core capital goods rose 1.0 percent in February. Shipments of core capital goods, which are used to calculate business equipment spending in the gross domestic product report, declined 0.8 percent in March instead of the 0.7 percent drop reported last month.

March’s drop in core capital goods orders and shipments suggest business spending on equipment is slowing.
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South Korea is looking into developing and financing economic projects with North Korea that could take effect if a nuclear deal is reached with the United States.

South Korean Finance Minister Kim Dong-yeon said on Wednesday the government was “internally carrying out preparations” to organize, finance and implement possible inter-Korea projects. But he also emphasized that Seoul would first seek support from the international community for any North Korean development projects, and would only proceed if the U.S. -North Korea summit, expected to be held in late May or June, produces a joint denuclearization agreement.

North Korea is under tough sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council for its nuclear weapons and missiles tests, including accelerated efforts in the last two years to develop a long-range nuclear missile that could potentially target the U.S. mainland. The international sanctions ban an estimated 90 percent of the country’s external trade.

Seeking sanctions relief is considered a key motivating factor in North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s diplomatic pivot this year to suspend further provocative missile and nuclear tests, and to engage in talks to dismantle his nuclear arsenal.

But easing sanctions would make it more difficult to enforce the North’s denuclearization promises.

“Once the sanctions are lifted, North Korea will gain autonomy over its trade, and considering its low labor costs and skilled workforce, I think the North Korean economy would gain power again,” said Shin Beom-chul, the director of Center for Security and Unification at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.

U.S. President Donald Trump has insisted he will keep sanctions in place until North Korea completely dismantles its nuclear program.

Infrastructure projects

South Korea, however, is considering a range of economic incentives to encourage Kim to follow through on a nuclear deal with Trump. But these investments are prohibited by the U.N. sanctions and would require a Security Council exemption to proceed.

At the recent inter-Korean summit, Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in agreed to increase economic cooperation, in addition to supporting the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Developing modern railways that would connect South and North Korea to Russia and China were specifically mentioned in their joint statement. Other possible projects include improving seaports, as well as building roads and electrical power plants in the impoverished and underdeveloped North.

The cost of these infrastructure projects could cost more than $65 billion, and would require extensive financing, as South Korea currently has only $1 billion in its Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund that was established for this purpose.

If North Korea does give up its nuclear weapons, there will likely be economic aid provided by strategic regional powers, including the U.S., China, Japan and Russia. But South Korea is taking a proactive role to be a major investor in developing the North’s mineral trade and other markets.

“It is expected that South Korea will carry most of the costs. In fact there are many economic resources that are strategically valuable in developing North Korea,” said Joung Eun-lee, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

Peacetime economy

Funding infrastructure projects could also help transition the North to a peacetime economy, even while the trade sanctions remain in place.

The two Koreas have agreed to pursue a peace treaty to replace the armistice put in place at the end of the Korean War in 1953. If implemented, North Korea would likely be expected to significantly reduce its conventional forces that currently include over one million soldiers.

International funding could also be used to provide jobs for former soldiers to work on building roads, bridges and other needed development projects.

“It is not so much the relaxation of the trade sanctions as it is subsidized infrastructure development. That is what North Korea needs upfront,” said Bruce Bennett, a North Korea analyst at the Rand Corporation research organization.

South Korea had invested billions of dollars into North Korean development projects in the past, like the Kaesong Industrial Complex that employed over 5,000 North Korean workers before it was shut down in 2016 following a nuclear test, and the Kumgang Mountain tourism program that ended when a South Korean visitor was shot by a North Korean soldier in 2008.
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A high-level U.S. trade delegation has begun talks with Chinese officials in Beijing as Washington tries to address deep concerns about China’s economic policies. The meeting is seen by some as a positive step, as the two sides attempt to avoid the possible outbreak of a trade war. Analysts say it is unlikely their differences will be resolved during the meetings but a decision to keep talking would be welcome progress.

President Donald Trump said on Twitter U.S. officials are “trying to negotiate a level playing field on trade.”

Raymond Yeung, a senior economist for Greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, says if the two sides can at least agree to keep talking with each other that would be big progress.

“I think it is too demanding to expect that both sides can come up with an agreement or an announcement or sign a deal,” Yeung said. “But if they are able to promise that they are willing to sit down and continue the dialogue and try and resolve their differences, at least that would signal that the relationship between the two governments is warming up.”

Differences over trade policy and market access have been a persistent concern for the United States and other foreign investors in China. In recent weeks, the debate has become even more heated with President Trump threatening to slap a long $50 billion list of tariffs on Chinese goods to punish Beijing for what his administration calls its unfair trade practices: forced technology transfer, intellectual property rights and state subsidies for technology development.

Beijing has denied Washington’s accusations and insists its market is opening. It recently pledged to do away with a 25 percent tariff on imported foreign cars, albeit by 2022. The Chinese government has also responded with threats of its own, saying that if the U.S. presses ahead with tariffs it will respond in kind.

The seven-member U.S. delegation is led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and is meeting with a group of Chinese officials led by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, a close aide to China’s president, Xi Jinping.

Although it is difficult to predict how the meetings will turn out, Liao Qun, chief economist at China CITIC Bank International, says it is a positive sign that both sides have a desire to sit down and negotiate. How much can be accomplished, depends on Washington, he says.

“It depends on how big Washington’s expectations are and how big its demands for reform and opening up of the Chinese market,” Liao says. “China will make some concessions, but if Washington’s appetite is too big, that will be tough for Beijing to accept.”

Since Xi Jinping rose to power in 2012, China has taken big steps to increase the central government and the communist party’s control over the economy and business, even as Beijing pledges to continue to further open its markets.

In 2015, the government unveiled a key policy plan called Made in China 2025, a plan that aims to make China dominant in 10 major next generation industries from robotics to electric cars, artificial intelligence, bio-tech and aerospace, among others. An investigation by the Trump administration into China’s unfair trade practices mentions the policy more than 100 times.

The policy clearly sets goals for domestic industries to dominate over foreign players in the Chinese market and globally. Beijing has characterized President Trump’s threats to tax exports and attack the government’s policies as an attempt to contain China and force the Chinese market to become more open, something that officials and state media have repeatedly stressed will never happen.

Bridging such a huge gap during two days of talks will be difficult, says Christopher Balding, a professor at Peking University’s HSBC Business School.

“I would be somewhat surprised if there was any real change in the negotiating stance of either party. Specifically China, they don’t want to open their markets, that’s the fundamental point,” Balding says.

He says the best that could be hoped for is that the two can find enough room to compromise to not go forward with the trade war. But these disputes are unlike any other in recent history, he adds.

“This is about how disputes are settled: About how one country views the international system as compared to the other. This is about how one country views how a country should be run and how they have conflicting views of those two things,” Balding says.

 
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President Trump plans to meet next week with leaders from U.S. and foreign carmakers on trade and changes to emission standards.

“When the White House wants to meet with us about our sector and policy, we welcome the opportunity,” Alliance of American Automobile Manufacturers spokeswoman Gloria Bergquist said Wednesday.

The time and agenda of the talks are still to be announced. But the car builders want to make their concerns about possible changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement known to the president.

They are also expected to talk about Trump administration plans to revise strict Obama-era emission standards for U.S. cars and light trucks.

Seventeen states and Washington, D.C., are suing the administration over the plans, accusing the Environmental Protection Agency of breaking the law.

“This is about health. This is about life and death,” California Governor Jerry Brown said Tuesday. “Pollutants coming out of tailpipes does permanent damage to children. The only way we’re going to overcome this is by reducing emissions.”

Brown accused Trump of wanting people to buy more gasoline and create more pollution.

The lawsuit argues the EPA acted arbitrarily and violated the Clean Air Act when it decided emission standards were too high.

In 2012, former president Barack Obama ordered emission standards to be raised to about 21 kilometers per liter of gasoline by 2025. The goal was to cut pollution and make cars and small trucks more energy efficient.

The EPA is seeking to freeze fuel efficiency requirements at 2020 levels until 2026.

EPA chief Scott Pruitt said last month that Obama’s decision was politically based and the emission standards Obama set were too high and did not “comport with reality.”

Pruitt said his EPA will set fresh standards so new cars that use less gas and are safer than older models will be affordable.

But environmental groups said the American public overwhelmingly supports the stricter standards.
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The International Monetary Fund censured Venezuela on Wednesday for failing to hand over essential economic data to the fund.

“The [Executive] Board noted that adequate data provision was an essential first step to understanding Venezuela’s economic crisis and identifying possible solutions,” an IMF statement said.

The board is giving Venezuela another six months to comply or face possible expulsion from the IMF.

“The Fund stands ready to work constructively with Venezuela toward resolving its economic crisis when it is prepared to re-engage with the Fund,” the IMF said.

Venezuela has not responded to the IMF’s action. But President Nicolas Maduro’s socialist government has long declined to provide data to the IMF. It regards the IMF as a U.S. tool and part of a Washington-inspired economic war against Venezuela.

Corruption and the collapse of world energy prices has led to an economic calamity in oil-rich Venezuela, including hyperinflation and severe shortages of many basic goods.
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