Day: March 7, 2018

Some countries are now likely to be spared from planned tariffs on metals advocated by U.S. President Donald Trump. 

“We expect that the president will sign something by the end of the week, and there are potential carve-outs for Mexico and Canada, based on national security, and possibly other countries as well, based on that process,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters Tuesday. 

Sources at the White House also said Trump’s controversial tariff plan could be put into action at a signing ceremony at 3:30 p.m. EDT (2030 UTC) Thursday.

Reuters quoted a senior U.S. official as saying the measures would take effect about two weeks after Trump signed the proclamation. 

Meanwhile Wednesday, U.S. Representative Kevin Brady, a Texas Republican, and other House members wrote a letter to Trump urging him to minimize negative consequences if he goes through with the tariff plan.

Brady, chair of the Ways and Means Committee, joined with Representative Dave Reichert, a Washington state Republican who chairs the Ways and Means subcommittee on trade, led the lawmakers who warned the president about the drawbacks to his tariff plan.

The letter said “tariffs are taxes that make U.S. businesses less competitive and U.S. consumers poorer,” and “any tariffs that are imposed should be designed to address specific distortions caused by unfair trade practices in a targeted way while minimizing negative consequences in American businesses and consumers.”

The lawmakers recommended that Trump exclude fairly traded products and products that do not pose a national security threat; announce a process for U.S. companies to petition for duty-free access to imports unavailable from U.S. sources; and allow exemptions for existing contracts for steel and aluminum purchases. They also recommended doing a short-term review of the effects of the tariffs on the economy to decide whether the approach is working.

The tariffs are expected to impose a duty of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum imports that Trump says undermine U.S. industry with their low prices.

The comment that some Canada and Mexico may be spared in the tariffs plan resulted in key stock indexes and the U.S. dollar paring losses in afternoon trading.

The Dow Jones industrial average, after falling more than 300 points during the session, closed off 83 points, a drop of one-third of a percent. 

Market players said the sell-off was sparked by the previous day’s announcement that the president’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, was resigning. The former Goldman Sachs investment bank president had opposed the sweeping tariffs for foreign steel and aluminum.

‘Easy to win’

Trump boasted last week that trade wars “are good and easy to win” after his surprise announcement he planned to impose the tariffs on imports of the two metals. That prompted widespread criticism from his normal Republican colleagues in Congress and America’s allies. 

The president, according to staffers, acted on recommendations made by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, formerly a billionaire investor, and Peter Navarro, an economist who is director of the White House National Trade Council. 

​’Easy to win’

Trump boasted last week that trade wars “are good and easy to win” after his surprise announcement he planned to impose a 25 percent U.S. tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent levy on aluminum imports. That prompted widespread criticism from his normal Republican colleagues in Congress and America’s allies. 

The president, according to staffers, acted on recommendations made by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, formerly a billionaire investor, and Peter Navarro, an economist who is director of the White House National Trade Council. 

Ross said the planned steel and aluminum tariffs were “thought through. We’re not looking for a trade war.”

The tariffs proposal also won support from economic nationalists in the United States and some Democratic lawmakers in manufacturing states whose fortunes could be boosted by the tariffs protecting their metal industries.

The chief of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, on Wednesday in a European radio interview, warned of a global trade war, predicting the U.S. tariffs could lead to “a drop in growth, a drop in trade, and it will be fearsome.”

Warning that there would be no victors in such a trade war, Lagarde urged “the sides to reach agreements, hold negotiations, consultations.”

‘Easy to lose’

European Council President Donald Tusk echoed Lagarde’s stance, saying, “The truth is quite the opposite: Trade wars are bad and easy to lose. For this reason, I strongly believe that now is the time for politicians on both sides of the Atlantic to act responsibly.”

The European Commission, the executive arm of the 28-nation European Union, detailed retaliatory tariffs it plans to impose on prominent U.S. products if Trump carries out his plan to impose the metal tariffs, taxing Harley-Davidson motorcycles, bourbon, blue jeans, cranberries, orange juice and peanut butter.

Moody’s Investors Service said the planned tariffs “raise the risk of a deterioration in global trade relations.”

Trump said on Twitter that since former President George H.W. Bush was in the White House 30 years ago, “our Country has lost more than 55,000 factories, 6,000,000 manufacturing jobs and accumulated Trade Deficits of more than 12 Trillion Dollars.”

“Bad Policies & Leadership. Must WIN again!” Trump also said on Twitter. 

Trump claimed the United States last year had a trade deficit of “almost 800 Billion Dollars,” significantly overstating the actual figure of $566 billion, which still was the biggest U.S. trade deficit in nine years. 

A new report Wednesday said the U.S. trade deficit in January — the amount its imports exceeded its exports — reached $56.6 billion, the highest monthly total since October 2008.
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U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to impose tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum has met criticism from his Republican allies in Congress, many of whom worry the measures could trigger a trade war that damages U.S. businesses. But the president does have supporters among some Senate Democrats from states where voters are concerned about the long-term loss of American manufacturing jobs.

“This welcome action is long overdue for shuttered steel plants across Ohio and steelworkers who live in fear that their jobs will be the next victims of Chinese cheating,” Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat from Ohio, said in a statement released after the plan was announced. “If we fail to stand up for steel jobs today, China will come after other jobs up and down the supply chain tomorrow.”

American labor unions have also broadly favored Trump’s proposed tariffs, saying they have been complaining for years that foreign countries frequently subsidize their own steel industries, putting American competitors at a disadvantage. 

Economists have been mostly critical of the plan, saying that overall it will hurt American manufacturers, some of whom may be targeted by trading partners for retaliatory sanction. They argue that the benefits to steel and aluminum workers are outweighed by job losses among Americans in other industries. 

Tariffs in focus in special election 

A test of how much the issue is resonating with American voters comes next week, when voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district, vote in a special election to fill a vacated seat. 

Many voters are looking to the president to fulfill his campaign promise of protecting manufacturing jobs in America’s heartland.

The race for the seat left vacant by Rep. Tim Murphy’s sex scandal is coming down to the wire between Republican candidate Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor Lamb.

Saccone’s campaign endorsed Trump’s tariff plan in a statement, saying “If other countries aren’t playing by the rules and tariffs are needed to protect steel and aluminum jobs in Southwestern Pennsylvania, Rick would support those measures.”Pennsylvania’s Democratic Senator Bob Casey also voiced his support for the president’s plan in a Facebook statement Thursday.

“I commend the President for announcing his intent to take action to protect our steelworkers from countries, like China, that cheat on trade. I have repeatedly called on this and previous Administrations to aggressively enforce our trade laws. For years, foreign countries have been dumping steel into our markets and costing our workers their jobs and suppressing their wages,” he wrote.

But Trump’s plan to impose the new tariffs prompted White House Chief Economic Advisor Gary Cohn to resign Tuesday.

McConnell, Ryan concerned

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan also expressed their concerns to the president, urging him to target the tariffs against specific countries to avoid a potential trade war.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told cable news network CNBC Wednesday the administration is not seeking a trade war. 

“We’re going to have very sensible relations with our allies,” said Ross. “We hope and we believe that at the end of the day, there will be a process of working with the other countries that are our friends.”

Trump dismissed concerns about a trade war during a joint press conference with the Swedish prime minister Tuesday.

“When we’re behind on every single country, trade wars aren’t so bad,” he told reporters. “In some cases we lose on trade plus we give them military where we’re subsidizing them tremendously. So, not only do we lose on trade, we lose on military.”

The administration is considering the new tariffs under a so-called “232 report.” It allows the president to impose trade quotes or tariffs if a probe finds imports threaten national security.

‘National security’

“It’s about our economy,” Vice President Mike Pence said of the need to enact tariffs, during a February meeting with lawmakers. “It’s about our national security.”

A March 7 Politico/Morning Consult poll of 2,000 registered voters, found that 65 percent of Republicans support the president’s plan.

White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters Wednesday the administration was still on pace to fully roll-out the tariffs at the end of this week.
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President Donald Trump is selling Hispanic business owners on his new tax cuts.

Trump is delivering the keynote address Wednesday at the annual legislative summit of the Latino Coalition. It’s his first time addressing Hispanic business owners.

The president says the $1.5 trillion package of tax cuts he signed late last year have finally given American business a “level playing field.” He tells the Latino business owners that they’ll “see more of this in the coming weeks.”

Trump highlighted administration efforts to eliminate regulations that many businesses find burdensome.

Trump also touched on immigration. He blamed Democrats for failing to reach agreement with the White House on a plan to protect immigrants who were brought to the country illegally as children.
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The International Monetary Fund and European leaders pushed back Wednesday against U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, saying it would provoke a calamitous global trade war.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde told a European radio interviewer, “If international trade is called into question by these types of measures, it will be a transmission channel for a drop in growth, a drop in trade and it will be fearsome. In a trade war that will be fed by reciprocal increases of customs tariffs, no one wins.”

Lagarde said the IMF is “anxious” that U.S. tariff increases not be imposed, saying, “We are urging the sides to reach agreements, hold negotiations, consultations.”

Trump boasted last week that trade wars “are good and easy to win” after he announced plans for a 25 percent U.S. tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent levy on aluminum exported to the United States.

The proposal has drawn widespread criticism from his normal Republican colleagues in Congress and U.S. foreign allies, but support from economic nationalists in the United States and a handful of Democratic lawmakers in manufacturing states whose fortunes could be boosted by the tariffs protecting their metal industries.

EU retaliation

European Council President Donald Tusk rebutted Trump’s contention about trade conflicts, saying, “The truth is quite the opposite: Trade wars are bad and easy to lose. For this reason I strongly believe that now is the time for politicians on both sides of the Atlantic to act responsibly.”

The European Commission, the executive arm of the 28-nation European Union, detailed retaliatory tariffs it plans to impose on prominent U.S. products if Trump carries out his plan to impose the metal tariffs, taxing Harley-Davidson motorcycles, bourbon, blue jeans, cranberries, orange juice and peanut butter.

Trump has claimed the United States needs to impose the steel and aluminum tariffs to protect its national security, but European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstroem dismissed his rationale.

“We cannot see how the European Union, friends and allies in NATO, can be a threat to international security in the U.S.,” Malmstroem said. “From what we understand, the motivation of the U.S. is an economic safeguard measure in disguise, not a national security measure.”

Denmark Foreign Minister Anders Samuelsen said if a trade war starts between the United States and the European Union, “at the end of the day, European and American consumers will pay for it. That is the signal we have to send to Trump that it is not a path we should follow.”

Moody’s Investors Service said the planned tariffs “raise the risk of a deterioration in global trade relations.”

Despite the criticism, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Trump is “on track” to make the formal announcement on the tariffs by the end of the week.

Cutting the trade deficit

Trump said on Twitter that since former President George H.W. Bush was in the White House 30 years ago, “our Country has lost more than 55,000 factories, 6,000,000 manufacturing jobs and accumulated Trade Deficits of more than $12 trillion.”

Trump claimed the United States last year had a trade deficit of “almost $800 billion,” significantly overstating the actual figure of $566 billion, which still was the biggest U.S. trade deficit in nine years. A new report Wednesday said the U.S. trade deficit in January – the amount its imports exceeded its exports – reached $56.6 billion, the highest monthly total since October 2008.

“Bad Policies & Leadership. Must WIN again!” Trump said.

In another tweet, Trump said the United States has asked China “to develop a plan for the year of a One Billion Dollar reduction in their massive Trade Deficit with the United States. Our relationship with China has been a very good one, and we look forward to seeing what ideas they come back with. We must act soon!”

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the planned steel and aluminum tariffs were “thought through. We’re not looking for a trade war.”

He said the Trump administration could take a “surgical approach” to new tariffs, exempting some countries, specifically Canada and Mexico, if revisions are reached in the ongoing negotiations over changes in the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement.

Ross added that it is “not inconceivable that others could be exempted on a similar basis.”

Stocks prices fell in the U.S. markets with the turmoil over the tariffs and the resignation Tuesday of Gary Cohn, Trump’s chief economic adviser, an economic globalist who had opposed the steel and aluminum tariffs, but lost the internal White House debate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 key stocks dropped a half percentage point in early Wednesday trading and other markets dropped too.

Trump promised to quickly replace Cohn, saying, “Many people wanting the job — will choose wisely!”
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Kenyan coffee has an international reputation for good quality.

But Kenya’s coffee industry is struggling as production levels have dropped and a younger generation shows little interest in farming. Since the 1980s, coffee production has dropped by two-thirds.

“The German school in Nairobi, when I was there in 1980, ’82, when I went to school there, we were surrounded by coffee fields,” said Stefan Canz with Nestle’s Nescafe Plan in Kenya. “We were doing sports competitions around there in the coffee field. And, now there’s a shopping mall, there’s houses, there’s everything. So, you have to go really up country to find now the next coffee trees.”

Volatile coffee prices, corrupt brokers, and disease discouraged investment.

Coffee yields fell to two kilos per tree, a fifth of what they once were, and fewer of Kenya’s younger generation stayed on the farm.

“After independence, what happened is people were looking for more white collar jobs rather than the farm,” said Peter Kimata, deputy general manager for Coffee Management Services. “The farm was seen to be like a peasant kind of affair. It was seen to be a poor man’s business.”

Coffee farmer Martin Mureithi Alexander wants his children to continue working the family farm. But, he admits their education could take them elsewhere.

“The government may employ them with the time,” he said. “But at this time, they are working on my coffee farm.”

Since 2014, Kenya’s coffee production has been rising-but slowly.

Improving productivity is key to showing Kenyan youth that coffee farming can be profitable, says Kimata.

“Moving the trees from producing two kilos, from producing one and a half kilos, moving them to five kilos, moving them to seven kilos, moving them to fifteen kilos,” he said. “Moving them to that kilos whereby now, with high productivity, there is better return on investment.”

Disease-resistant coffee trees and farmer training are helping. But better implementation is needed or else Kenyan coffee risks losing its significance to bigger producers, warns Nestle’s Stefan Canz.

“Countries like China or Vietnam can serve as inspiration, that people see that it’s possible,” he said. “And then you have to find the African way, the Kenyan way, or the Côte d’Ivoire way, to move towards that.”

The question is whether the investment of time and money on the farm is a cost that Kenya’s younger generation is willing to pay.
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At Sweet Waters, a village in central Kenya, Veronicah Nyambura stands under the hot sun between two fields. One is full of lush plants – but the other has crops so wilted that their leaves have curled up.

The green land is planted with tea tree, an Australian native that thrives in this semi-arid part of Kenya. Opposite is a field of maize, which suffers in years of poor rains and high temperatures.

“Maize is very disappointing. You plant but you’re never sure whether you’ll harvest anything,” said Nyambura, who has planted a quarter-acre of tea trees.

The 65-year-old said she harvests 900 kg of tea tree branches every six months from that bit of land. When it was planted to maize, she got about 270 kg of grain every nine months, she said.

Many farmers in this part of Laikipia County – like farmers in many parts of the world – cannot afford to buy seeds for alternative crops better suited to drought, so keep planting maize.

But Nyambura and about 800 other small-scale farmers were sold tea tree seedlings on credit by a company called Earthoil that also guaranteed to buy their harvest. Each seedling cost 3.5 Kenyan shillings, or about 3 cents.

Earthoil, which buys the branches for between 17 Kenyan shillings ($0.17) and 19 Kenyan shillings ($0.19) a kilogram, extracts the tea tree oil at its local distillery and exports it to British skin-care company, The Body Shop.

Dairy cows and a TV

To meet the demands of buyers, Martin Thogoto Mwambia, 68, uses mulch – not chemical fertilizers or pesticides – on his 1.75-acre tea tree farm in Ngarariga village, in neighboring Nyeri county.

“I am mulching them with cow-dung and dried leftovers of tea tree,” he said with a smile while rubbing the dirt off his hands.

The farmer said he has reaped a fortune from the crop, which means he does not have to spend his old age working in menial jobs.

“Handling 50,000 Kenyan shillings ($490) and sometimes 100,000 Kenyan shillings ($990) is a miracle to me. Tea tree has given me that privilege,” said Mwambia, who worked as a guard in a local firm before he began growing tea trees.

Prior to tea tree he grew maize – but even in good years he earned far less, he said.

“Sometimes when the drought is at its worst I would harvest a tin (a kilogram) or two,” said Mwambia who is now harvesting an average of 10,000 kgs of tea tree branches annually from his farm.

The proceeds have enabled him to buy two dairy cows, get connected to electricity and buy a television set.

“Life is better for us now. I am happy,” said his wife, Jane Gathigia.

The drought-tolerant tea trees come with the advantage of a ready market, the farmers said.

“Marketing maize is a headache. The prices fluctuate from time to time and farmers end up making losses,” said Alice Wanja, 42, at her quarter-acre tea tree farm at Sweet Waters, about 1.5 km from Nyambura’s home.

“There is nothing like that with tea tree. The buyer is already at the waiting end and the buying price is good,” she said.

Long-term risks

The Laikipia County project came about through a grant from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), administered by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and implemented by a local charity, Kenya Organic Agriculture Network (KOAN), which partnered with Earthoil.

Although projects of this kind guarantee farmers a reliable buyer, they do not necessarily offer security in the longterm since the buyer may go out of business or move elsewhere, warned Tom Nyamache, professor of economics at Turkana University College.

On the flip side, the buyer is also at risk of closing shop if the farmers’ productivity falls or fails completely, he said.

It is important that farmers plant an alternative crop that also can thrive in the changed climate conditions to serve as a fallback should their tea tree ventures fail, he said.

Earthoil’s project manager, Martin Wainaina, said there is such a big demand for tea tree oil that they are making aggressive plans to expand production.

The Body Shop wants 30 tons of oil from the firm each year, but Earthoil can currently only supply 8 tons, he said.

Expanding the pool of farmers is a challenge. The plants have to be grown near the distillery, as tea tree branches are bulky and difficult to transport, he said.

The tea tree thrives in the volcanic soil and high altitudes in this region near Mount Kenya, Wainaina said.

Expanding production to other parts of Kenya with similar arid and semi-arid climates will only be possible through research and investment in more tea tree processing, analysts say.

Nancy Chege, country program manager at GEF-UNDP, Kenya, said scaling up tea tree farming also would depend on continuing to look for new markets, both locally and internationally.

But “most (such) community projects … are usually sustainable because trade goes on even after the project (ends),” she said.

($1 = 101.1700 Kenyan shillings)
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