Calling preparations for the 2020 Census “conspicuously deficient,” the NAACP is suing the U.S. Census Bureau, demanding that the agency send more workers into the field and spend more money on encouraging people to participate in the once-a-decade head count.
The civil rights group and Prince George’s County, a majority African American county in Maryland, filed the lawsuit last Friday in federal court in Maryland. It claims the Census Bureau wasn’t planning to put enough workers in the field and hadn’t opened up a sufficient number of field offices.
The lawsuit also faulted the bureau for conducting limited testing, particularly when, for the first time, it is encouraging most respondents to answer the questionnaire online.
The 2020 census will help determine the distribution of $1.5 trillion in federal spending and how many congressional seats each state gets. It starts for a few residents next week in a remote part of Alaska, but most people won’t be able to begin answering the questionnaire until mid-March.
“These deficiencies will result in a massive and differential undercount of communities of color,” the lawsuit said. “Such a dramatic undercount will especially dilute the votes of racial and ethnic minorities, deprive their communities of critical federal funds, and undervalue their voices and interests in the political arena.”
The Census Bureau didn’t immediately respond to an email for comment on Monday. The bureau plans to hire as many as 500,000 temporary workers, mostly to help knock on the doors of homes where people haven’t yet responded to the census. Although that is less than in 2010, the agency has said it doesn’t need as many workers this year because of technological advances, such as the ability of workers to collect information on their mobile devices.
An earlier version of the lawsuit was first filed in 2018, but it was dismissed by the district court. An appellate court last month ruled some of the claims could be raised again in the amended complaint filed Friday. In previous court papers, the Census Bureau has called the lawsuit “meritless.”
Month: January 2020
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani pledged Tuesday to punish those responsible for the accidental downing of a Ukrainian passenger jet, calling the incident “unforgivable.”
In a televised speech, Rouhani called for a special court to be set up, and said, “the whole world will be watching.”
Also Tuesday, an Iranian judiciary spokesman said some people had been arrested for their role in shooting down the plane, but did not specify how many or how they were connected.
The developments come as the government faces protests after first insisting mechanical problems caused the plane to go down before admitting Saturday that Iranian military personnel shot down the plane, killing all 176 people on board.
Hundreds of students at a prestigious Iranian university openly denounced their Islamist rulers in a third day of protests Monday.
In several video clips vetted by VOA, the students at Tehran’s Sharif University of Technology, a top engineering school, appeared to be gathered in an outdoor location on campus, chanting slogans and listening to several speakers criticize the government. VOA could not independently verify the authenticity of the clips.
In one video, the students chanted, “They killed our elites and replaced them with mullahs.”
The reference to “elites” was a tribute to the dozens of Iranian students who had been on the Ukraine International Airlines plane that was downed by a missile shortly after taking off from Tehran on a flight to Kyiv last Wednesday.
The pre-dawn crash happened hours after Iran fired missiles at U.S. forces in Iraq and was bracing for a U.S. counterstrike that never came. Iran’s missile attacks, which caused no casualties, were in retaliation for what the United States called a self-defensive strike that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad on Jan. 3.
Iranian leaders’ belated acknowledgment of Western intelligence that Iran was responsible for the crash angered many Iranians, including students at a Tehran university whose Saturday night vigil for the crash victims turned into an anti-government rally. Protests spread from Tehran to at least 18 other cities on Sunday, according to photos and video clips sent to VOA Persian and reports by other Persian-language media.
A video widely shared on social media showed demonstrators in Tehran fleeing tear gas fired by police late Sunday. Other online footage showed a woman on the ground with blood nearby as bystanders said she had been shot and tried to pick her up.
Iranian state media quoted Tehran’s police chief Gen. Hossein Rahimi as saying his officers had not opened fire on protesters and had acted with restraint.
Police maintained a strong presence in Tehran on Monday, according to a video clip vetted by VOA. It appeared to show officers in riot gear, some on horseback, along the city’s Azadi Street.
“You can see the Iranian people are in the streets — in astounding numbers in spite of enormous personal risk to themselves,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a Monday speech at the Hoover Institution.
“They’re burning posters and billboards with Soleimani’s face on them, and chanting ‘Soleimani is a murderer.’ They know he was one of the key architects of their oppression,” Pompeo added, referring to other widely shared video clips of Sunday’s protests.
Pompeo said the Trump administration has called on U.S. allies in the region and around the world to repeat U.S. President Donald Trump’s tweeted demands for Iran not to harm the protesters. The United States has said Iranian security forces killed at least 1,500 people, mostly with gunfire, in a crackdown on nationwide protests last November.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric, told journalists that reports of people being shot during the Iran protests were “clearly worrying.”
“It’s important, as with any demonstration, that reports of the lethal use of force be fully investigated,” Dujarric said.
A second clip from Monday’s protest at Sharif University appeared to show a student shouting an angry message to the gathered crowd: “Our elites have left the country for good, and they (Iran’s leaders) blew them up. If it was not an international flight, we would never have been informed of the truth.”
In a third clip, another protester can be heard telling the students through a megaphone: “We want clarity. This country has been suffering from a lack of transparency for years. They lied to us through all these years. Excuse my language; they treat us like donkeys.”
There were no reports of arrests or clashes at Sharif University.
Confirmed: Drop in internet connectivity registered at #Sharif University, Tehran from 11:50 UTC where students are protesting for colleagues and alumni killed on flight #PS752; national connectivity remains stable despite sporadic disruptions on third day of #Iran protests? pic.twitter.com/LjaNNd4Ut2
— NetBlocks.org (@netblocks) January 13, 2020
But London-based Internet monitoring group Netblocks tweeted that it recorded a drop in connectivity at the university on Monday as the students staged their protest. It said Iran’s national connectivity rate was stable, despite what it said were sporadic disruptions on the third day of protests.
Iranian authorities imposed a near-total Internet shutdown on the country within days of the outbreak of the November protests and only lifted it after a week.
Wow! The wonderful Iranian protesters refused to step on, or in any way denigrate, our Great American Flag. It was put on the street in order for them to trample it, and they walked around it instead. Big progress!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 13, 2020
In his latest tweet in support of the protests, Trump on Monday praised Iranians who were seen in other online footage walking around a giant U.S. flag painted on the ground. Iranian authorities have placed such images around the country to encourage people to walk over the U.S. flag as a sign of disrespect.
Trump had tweeted several other supportive messages in Farsi on Saturday and Sunday, marking the first time he had tweeted in the Persian language. In an interview with VOA Persian on Monday, State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said there had been an “explosion” of re-tweets and likes of the president’s Farsi posts.
“By the president tweeting in Farsi over this weekend, not just in English, and by Secretary Pompeo tweeting as well, we want to make sure that we are using our platform here in the U.S. government to shine a light on these protests,” Ortagus said.
“If (Iran’s rulers) decide to try to kill innocent protesters again, to imprison thousands of people peacefully protesting, to cut off the Internet — we want them to know that they’re not going to get a free pass, that we are watching, the world is watching, and we will bring it to light when that happens,” she said.
In a briefing with reporters Monday, a senior State Department official also talked about the message the Trump administration was sending with the Soleimani strike and ongoing concerns about Iranian proxy groups in the Middle East.
“We would hope based on the president’s demonstration, the administration’s demonstration of how it is going to respond — that is, that the United States has made clear that we plan on being disproportional in our response to Iranian aggression — that hopefully this will result in the deterrence that we’re looking for,” the official said. “The ball is in Iran’s court.”
VOA Persian’s Guita Aryan contributed to this report from the State Department and Margaret Besheer contributed from the United Nations.
This week the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to transmit the articles of impeachment to the Senate, setting up a trial to determine whether U.S President Donald Trump should be removed from office. So far Trump has borrowed from the playbooks of two of his predecessors who faced threats of being removed from office. White House Correspondent Patsy Widakuswara has more.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday dismissed as irrelevant questions about how imminent a threat Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani posed to American interests in the Middle East when Trump ordered a drone strike that killed him.
Trump offered no evidence supporting his claim that Soleimani was about to blow up four U.S. embassies, after key U.S. officials declined Sunday to say they had seen such a specific threat.
On Twitter, Trump said the mainstream U.S. news media and “their Democrat Partners are working hard to determine whether or not the future attack by terrorist Soleimani was ‘imminent’ or not, & was my team in agreement. The answer to both is a strong YES., but it doesn’t really matter because of his horrible past!”
The Fake News Media and their Democrat Partners are working hard to determine whether or not the future attack by terrorist Soleimani was “imminent” or not, & was my team in agreement. The answer to both is a strong YES., but it doesn’t really matter because of his horrible past!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 13, 2020
He contended that opposition Democrats and the news media “are trying to make terrorist Soleimani into a wonderful guy, only because I did what should have been done for 20 years. Anything I do, whether it’s the economy, military, or anything else, will be scorned by the Radical Left, Do Nothing Democrats!”
The Democrats and the Fake News are trying to make terrorist Soleimani into a wonderful guy, only because I did what should have been done for 20 years. Anything I do, whether it’s the economy, military, or anything else, will be scorned by the Rafical Left, Do Nothing Democrats!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 13, 2020
On Sunday, Defense Secretary Mark Esper told CBS News’ Face the Nation show, “I didn’t see the intelligence about Iran posing an imminent threat to four U.S. embassies, but I believe President Trump when he says there was one.”
The Pentagon chief added, “What I’m saying is I share the president’s view that probably- my expectation was they were going to go after our embassies.”
Esper, in another interview, told CNN’s State of the Union show, that he believed Soleimani was “days away” from launching an attack on U.S. facilities when the drone attack killed him Jan. 3.
Iran, in response, fired 16 ballistic missiles at bases in Iraq where U.S. troops are stationed, although the U.S. says it knew of the attacks hours ahead of time, allowing forces to bunker in safety. There were no reports of U.S. casualties.
In extensive Capitol Hill briefings on the Soleimani killing, lawmakers, including House Intelligence Committee chairman Adam Schiff, said Trump administration officials never mentioned the potential for attacks on the four embassies.
But U.S. national security adviser Robert O’Brien told the Fox News Sunday show, “They can trust us on this intelligence” about the threat posed by Soleimani.
But he said it was “always difficult to know the specifics” of threats, saying they came from Soleimani and the Quds Force. He said there were “very significant threats to American facilities in the region,” without acknowledging any specific threat to four embassies.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi, leader of the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives, told ABC’s This Week, “I don’t think the administration has been straight with the Congress of the United States.”
After Tehran fired the missiles at the U.S. forces in Iraq, Trump backed off earlier threats of further military attacks against Iran, instead imposing more economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.
O’Brien said the U.S.’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran is working. “Iran is being choked off,” he said, making it difficult for Tehran to “get the money” for continued funding for its Quds Force military operations in the Mideast.
The U.S. has expressed the view that its economic sanctions against Tehran will eventually force it to renegotiate the 2015 international treaty restraining Iran’s nuclear program, the deal Trump withdrew the U.S. from.
But Trump, in a tweet late Sunday, seemed indifferent whether there are new negotiations with Tehran, saying, “Actually, I couldn’t care less if they negotiate. Will be totally up to them but, no nuclear weapons and ‘don’t kill your protesters.'”
O’Brien said student protests in Tehran that started Saturday, after Iran admitted that it mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 aboard, in the hours after its attacks on the Iraqi bases, will also pressure Iranian leaders to renegotiate the nuclear treaty.
Queen Elizabeth II said Monday that she has agreed to grant Prince Harry and Meghan their wish for a more independent life that will see them move part-time to Canada.
The British monarch said in a statement that “today my family had very constructive discussions on the future of my grandson and his family.”
She said it had been “agreed that there will be a period of transition in which the Sussexes will spend time in Canada and the UK.” Harry and Meghan are also known as the Duke and Duchess of Sussex.
“These are complex matters for my family to resolve, and there is some more work to be done, but I have asked for final decisions to be reached in the coming days,” the queen said.
In a six-sentence statement that mentioned the word “family” six times, the queen said that “though we would have preferred them to remain full-time working Members of the Royal Family, we respect and understand their wish to live a more independent life as a family while remaining a valued part of my family.”
Monday’s meeting involved the queen, her heir Prince Charles and his sons William and Harry, with Meghan expected to join by phone from Canada.
Talks between leaders of Libya’s two warring sides wrapped up Monday in Moscow, with Russia’s foreign minister noting some progress, a day after a fragile cease-fire brokered by Russia and Turkey came into force.
Russia and Turkey are emerging as key arbiters in the war-torn country, trying to push Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), and his rival, renegade General Khalifa Haftar, to start agreeing to the outlines of a longer-term political settlement, one suiting both Ankara and Moscow.
On Monday, before talks started, al-Sarraj urged Libyans to “turn the page” on the turmoil of the past,” saying all Libyans should “reject discord and close ranks to move toward stability and peace.” He said the GNA had entered the cease-fire to end the bloodshed and that his beleaguered government is in “a position of strength to maintain national and social cohesion.”
The latest phase of the long-running violent turmoil that followed the 2011 ouster of then-dictator Moammar Gadhafi has been bogged down in stalemate for months.
The warring factions failed to sign the truce as scheduled Monday, and adjourned for further discussions Tuesday. But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters in the Russian capital he was confident they would ink the document, saying they viewed the document “positively.”
More than 280 civilians and about 2,000 fighters have been killed and 146,000 Libyans displaced since Haftar launched an assault last year on Tripoli, according to monitoring groups. Formerly one of Col. Gadhafi’s most trusted lieutenants, Haftar, since 2014, has been waging a campaign against the GNA, which is recognized by the U.S. and most Western states as the legitimate Libyan government.
Last week, his forces seized the coastal town of Sirte, Gadhafi’s birthplace and the scene of the ousted autocrat’s brutal death.
Both Russia and Turkey have much invested in Libya — Russia in terms of reputation, clout and potential oil deals, and Turkey with even more wide-ranging commercial interests, say analysts. They have been backing opposing sides in Libya, posing a risk to their fledgling, albeit competitive, partnership in northern Syria, where Moscow has accepted, at least temporarily, a Turkish military intervention against the Kurds. Moscow has also been working with Ankara to try to forge a post-war future for Syria that works for both the Turks and Russians and balances out their interests and influence.
The Libya cease-fire followed a joint call by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — who backs al-Sarraj and has deployed troops to help the GNA — and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, who has been supporting Haftar. Hundreds of military contractors from Russia’s Wagner Group have been fighting alongside Haftar. The Wagner Group is a Kremlin-tied private military contractor whose mercenaries have been identified fighting in Syria and other hotspots on the side of Moscow’s allies.
Last week, President Putin said he was aware of the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya, but denied they were they on his command. “
If there are Russian citizens there, then they are not representing the interests of the Russian state and they are not receiving money from the Russian state,” he said.
Pro-Haftar forces are supported also by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. French officials have denied a charge by Sarraj that it has been tacitly supporting Haftar’s siege of the Libyan capital, Tripoli.
In December, Russian energy companies signed contracts with Libya’s National Oil Corporation for exploration. Turkey also is determined to establish a long-term partnership with Libya, formerly part of Turkey’s Ottoman empire. Turkish companies, which moved into Libya aggressively after the ouster of Gadhafi, are owed millions of dollars in unpaid business they conducted prior to 2014.
And in November, Erdogan signed signed memorandums with the GNA on security cooperation and maritime boundaries. The latter agreement, which Brussels says violates international law, secured in principle oil shale deposits in the Mediterranean Sea for Turkey. The memorandums between the GNA and Ankara prompted alarm in Moscow. Kremlin officials warned the deals — along with Erdogan’s announcement he would send troops to Libya to buttress the GNA — could derail peace negotiations scheduled for later this year in Berlin.
The increasing involvement of foreign forces and rival outside powers in Libya prompted German Chancellor Angela Merkel last week to warn that the country risked sliding into a Syria-like civil war.
The German leader has been supportive of the arbitration of Moscow and Ankara. And during a joint press conference Saturday with Putin in Moscow, she said, “We hope that the joint efforts by Russia and Turkey will lead to success, and we will soon send out invitations for a conference in Berlin.”
Analysts say the Europeans, the largest donors of humanitarian aid to Libya, have increasingly become bystanders as events unfold in the north African country — and are eager for someone, or anyone, to secure a resolution to a conflict that’s helped facilitate the movement of sub-Saharan migrants to Europe.
The European Union has been anything but united on which side to support in Libya, say Karim Mezran and Emily Burchfield, analysts with the U.S.-based research group the Atlantic Council. “
The main rift is between France, which claims to support the GNA, but has been linked to military and financial support to Haftar; and Italy, which aligns with the United Nations in backing Sarraj. The clash between Italy and France over Libya has contributed to the failure of international efforts to develop a political solution for the conflict, they say.
Without European leadership on Libya, Russia and Turkey have found it easier to insert themselves into the conflict,” they added.
Iranian protesters took to the streets in the third day of demonstrations against the government after it acknowledged mistakenly shooting down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 aboard.
Video posted online showed students outside universities in Tehran and Isfahan Monday chanting at the country’s rulers, “Clerics get lost!”
Earlier videos from the night before appear to show security forces firing live ammunition and tear gas at the protesters in Tehran. Authorities denied they opened fire but the semi-official Fars news agency reported police had “shot tear gas in some areas” in an attempt to disperse the demonstrators.
The videos showed protesters coughing and sputtering as they tried to escape the tear gas fumes. VOA could not independently verify the authenticity of the videos.
Tehran’s police chief, Gen. Hossein Rahimi, insisted authorities treated protesters with “patience and tolerance.”
“Police did not shoot in the gatherings since broad-mindedness and restraint has been the agenda of the police forces of the capital,” Iranian media quoted him as saying.
The protests erupted after Iran on Saturday acknowledged that “human error” led a missile operator to fire on the Boeing 737 jet last Wednesday. The accident occurred hours after Iran fired 16 ballistic missiles at Iraqi bases housing U.S. forces in retaliation for U.S. President Donald Trump ordering the Jan. 3 drone strike at the Baghdad airport that killed Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force.
As protests started against Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,Trump voiced support for the demonstrators and warned Iranian officials, “Don’t kill your protesters.”
After Iran fired the missiles at the Iraqi bases, Trump retreated from threats of further armed conflict with Tehran. He instead imposed more economic sanctions against Iran in an effort to force it to renegotiate terms of the 2015 international treaty aimed at restraining its nuclear program, the deal that Trump withdrew the U.S. from.
Watch related video report by Henry Ridgwell:
U.S. national security adviser Robert O’Brien told CBS’ Face the Nation show on Sunday that Iran is “being choked off” economically and that U.S. officials see an opportunity to further intensify pressure on the country’s leaders and leave them with no choice but to negotiate. But late Sunday, Trump seemed indifferent to the possibility of more negotiations.
“Actually, I couldn’t care less if they negotiate,” Trump said on Twitter. “Will be totally up to them but, no nuclear weapons and ‘don’t kill your protesters.'”
To the leaders of Iran – DO NOT KILL YOUR PROTESTERS. Thousands have already been killed or imprisoned by you, and the World is watching. More importantly, the USA is watching. Turn your internet back on and let reporters roam free! Stop the killing of your great Iranian people!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 12, 2020
On Sunday, in an emotional speech before parliament, the head of the Revolutionary Guard apologized for the missile attack on the jetliner and insisted it was a tragic mistake.
“I swear to almighty God that I wished I was on that plane and had crashed with them and burned, but had not witnessed this tragic incident,” said Gen. Hossein Salami. “I have never been this embarrassed in my entire life. Never.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, on Twitter, expressed “profound regrets” and apologized for the shoot-down of the Ukraine International Airlines jet. But he contended that ‘Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster.”
O’Brien rejected Zarif’s claim in a Fox News Sunday interview, saying Iran first covered up its actions then claimed the civilian aircraft veered toward a military base. He said Iran needs to investigate the accident, apologize for it, pay compensation to the victims’ families and “make sure it never happens again.”
A team of Canadian officials is due to travel Monday to Iran to work with the families of victims, including identifying those killed and repatriating their remains. They will also assist in the investigation.
Off the 176 dead, at least 57 were Canadians.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau participated in a memorial service Sunday in Edmonton where he expressed sorrow for those who died and said, “This tragedy should never have occurred.”
“We will continue to work with our partners to ensure that a full, transparent investigation is conducted,” Trudeau said. “I want to assure all families and all Canadians we will not rest until there are answers. We will not rest until there is justice and accountability.”
A flurry of diplomatic visits and meetings crisscrossing the Persian Gulf have driven urgent efforts in recent days to defuse the possibility of all-out war after the U.S. killed Iran’s top military commander.
Global leaders and top diplomats are repeating the mantra of “de-escalation” and “dialogue,” yet none have publicly laid out a path to achieving either.
The United States and Iran have said they do not want war, but fears have grown that the crisis could spin out of Tehran’s or Washington’s control. Tensions have careened from one crisis to another since President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers.
The U.S. drone strike that killed Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani and a senior Iraqi militia leader in Baghdad on Jan. 3 was seen as a major provocation.
The killing alarmed even Washington’s allies in the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia dispatching Deputy Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman to Washington right after with a message to de-escalate.
Iran retaliated days later, firing a barrage of missiles at two military bases in Iraq where U.S. troops are stationed. No casualties were reported in that attack and Iranian commanders say their intention was not to kill. Amid the confusion and fears of U.S. retaliation, Iran acknowledged it had unintentionally shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet after takeoff from the Iranian capital, Tehran, killing all 176 people on board.
In Iran on Sunday, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani said that it was “a very sensitive time for the region.”
“The only solution to these crises is first de-escalation from all, and dialogue is the only solution to these crises,” he said during a joint press appearance with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.
Rouhani said “the escalation of tensions in the region are not beneficial to the region and the world.”
The emir’s visit to Iran was one of many diplomatic forays aimed at calming regional tensions and keeping back channels open.
Iran sent its foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, to Oman on Sunday to be among the first to offer condolences in person to the new ruler of Oman. The sultanate, like Qatar, is a close U.S. ally, but also maintains good relations with Iran. Oman helped facilitate talks between the U.S. and Iran under President Barack Obama.
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was in Saudi Arabia on Sunday as part of a tour of oil-producing Gulf Arab states. Stability in the Persian Gulf is a national security priority for Japan, which imports nearly 90% of its oil from the Middle East. Much of that is shipped from Arab Gulf states through the narrow Straight of Hormuz, which Iran partly controls.
Abe next visited the United Arab Emirates on Monday for a meeting with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, before traveling to Oman Tuesday to meet Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said.
Japanese energy supplies were a target of rising tensions in June when two cargo ships were hit off the Gulf of Oman. The attacks took place when Abe was in Iran seeking to backstep American tensions.
Japanese media reported that Abe was told by Saudi leaders there on Sunday that they fully support Tokyo’s plans to deploy naval forces, a destroyer and two patrol airplanes off the coasts of Yemen and Oman to help protect Japanese energy supplies.
“A military conflict in the Middle East would have a huge impact on global peace and stability,” Abe was quoted in Japan’s The Mainichi daily as saying to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. “I’d like to ask all countries concerned to respond [to the situation] in a restrained manner.”
Meanwhile, Iran hosted Syrian Prime Minster Imad Khamis on Monday. A day earlier Pakistani Foreign Minister Makhdoom Qureshi was in Iran where he emphasized the importance of “maximum restraint and immediate steps for de-escalation by all sides,” according to a statement by his office. War is in nobody’s interest and issues must be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy, the statement added.
He is headed next to Saudi Arabia for meetings Monday. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan has before attempted the difficult task of mediating between Iran and the U.S., as well as between archrivals Iran and Saudi Arabia.
In Washington, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper told CBS “Face the Nation” that the U.S. is willing to meet with Iran’s leadership without preconditions. Iranian officials, however, say no meetings can take place without U.S. economic sanctions being lifted first.
There are rumblings that renewed domestic pressured on Iran could force it to negotiate with Washington. Thousands of Iranians are taking part in angry streets protests over the downing of the jetliner whose majority of passengers were Iranian nationals. Iranian officials admitted responsibility for shooting down the jet after initial denials by leaders.
The demonstrations are demanding accountability and change in Iran. Deadly protests in November already shook the country, triggered by price hikes and economic woes from U.S. sanctions.
n a tweet about the protests and whether they might pressure Iran’s leadership to change its tone, Trump wrote: “Actually, I couldn’t care less if they negotiate. Will be totally up to them but, no nuclear weapons and ‘don’t kill your protesters.'”
In Tehran, government spokesman Ali Rabiei gave a glimpse into how Iran’s leadership views any possible dialogue with Trump. Speaking to reporters on Monday, he said if Iran opens dialogue with the United States, it would signal that pressure on Iran works and could lead to more pressure.
“They give us messages, such as they have nothing to do with others and want to talk to us directly. We have no trust in them,” he said, describing Trump as “untrustworthy.”
“He thinks that by putting ordinary people under pressure, he can achieve what he wants and can force us to retreat,” Rabiei said.
It looked more like April than January across parts of the eastern U.S. after powerful spring-like storms pummeled several states over the weekend.
Tornadoes, floods, and hurricane-strength winds killed at least 11 people in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Alabama.
About 200,000 people were without electricity Sunday as the strong storms blew down power lines, overturned cars, and tore up trees.
Gusty winds also knocked out power along the East Coast while flood warnings were out Sunday in several other southern states.
Meanwhile, millions in the Northeast let their winter coats hang in the closet Sunday as record-breaking warmth gave a treat to runners, golfers, and just about anyone who loves the outdoors.
Thermometers reached highs of 22 Celsius in Boston and 20 in New York City and Washington, D.C.
Meteorologists say an intense polar vortex — frigid air in high altitudes surrounded by powerful winds — has been keeping the cold in the Arctic.
But forecasters say the East can expect more January-like temperatures the rest of the week.
Vietnam will enjoy the fastest economic growth in Southeast Asia in 2020, according to a new forecast from British multinational investment bank HSBC.
Vietnam has been a beneficiary of the China-U.S. trade war, enjoying a boost in services and exports that should drive economic growth to 7% this year, HSBC economist Yun Liu said last week. But she said the country remains vulnerable to economic risks including trade protection and inflation.
Inflation is increasing as swine flu forces up the price of pork, showing how a single product can weigh on the economic indicators of an entire nation of nearly 100 million people. Vietnam also fears rising inflation if simmering Middle East tensions continue to push up oil prices.
Nevertheless, Liu predicted the communist nation’s “impressive” economic performance will give it another “year in the 7% club,” outshining fast-growing Myanmar, the Philippines, and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Nintendo, Apple
Liu noted that some of the biggest names in technology, ranging from Nintendo to Google, are relocating to Vietnam, probably because the trade war is making production in China more expensive.
“Likely due to the trade tensions that have accelerated multinational corporations’ relocation decisions, many tech giants, including Apple, Google, Nintendo and Kyocera, have now followed in Samsung’s footsteps and plan to move parts of their production to Vietnam,” Liu forecast
Samsung, the Korean smartphone giant, already accounts for close to one quarter of Vietnam’s exports, but others are following the same path. Total electronics exports to the United States rose 76% in the first 11 months of 2019, as U.S. tariffs made Chinese-made phones more expensive for Americans.
“Contrary to many Asian countries which have seen a contraction in industrial activity, Vietnam’s manufacturing sector remained resilient [in 2019], contributing 30% to headline GDP growth,” Liu said.
Also contributing to GDP growth are increases in tourism and private consumption among Vietnamese citizens themselves.
Risks
The solid growth has brought renewed risk of inflation, a problem Hanoi had mostly brought under control in recent years. Prices last month rose by 5.2% on an annualized basis — the highest monthly figure since January 2014. Economists attribute the unexpected jump in part to higher pork prices.
“The economy faces two key risks over the coming year,” said Gareth Leather, a senior Asia economist, in an analysis for research company Capital Economics. Citing trade protectionism as one risk, he said the other “is the outbreak of African swine fever, which has led to a sharp rise in pork prices.”
Liu agrees. She said Vietnam faces “a confluence of factors including higher pork demand in the run-up to the Tet holidays [Lunar New Year] and likely competition with mainland China on pork imports as the latter has recently lowered pork tariffs.”
The regional minimum wage in Vietnam has also increased, while oil prices around the world spiked after a U.S. airstrike killed Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force. Leather said the most vulnerable Asian nations are Vietnam, India and China.
He also voiced a widely held sentiment regarding Vietnam’s trade imbalance with the United States. “Vietnam’s growing bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. could lead to retaliatory action,” Leather said.
A violent mob assault on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. The targeted killing of an Iranian general ordered by President Donald Trump. An accidental missile strike of a Ukrainian commercial airliner. A tightening of U.S. economic sanctions on Iran. The detention of the British ambassador in Tehran.
We are barely beyond the first week of a new year and a new decade, but already the alarming and chaotic news coming out of the Middle East makes it difficult not to feel a sense of foreboding for what’s to come. Historical forces seem to be moving on paths impossible to identify precisely, but lead in the general direction of danger, political analysts and historians say.
And all this takes place at a time when the world already had plenty to worry about.
Trump has been impeached and awaits a trial seeking his removal from office that could begin in the Senate later this week. North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un continues to threaten the U.S. and has declared that he will no longer observe a ban on nuclear tests. Overseas, Australia is on fire. Britain is edging ever closer to Brexit.
A Middle East on the edge
With the crisis in the Middle East one miscalculation away from spiraling out of control, and a suite of other international fires to put out, many key posts in the Trump administration’s national security apparatus are filled by unconfirmed officials or sit empty altogether.
It’s little wonder that newspapers across the country are running stories on the rise in the number of people seeking mental health care for anxiety.
At times like these, a little historical perspective can be helpful.
Parallels to 1968
Robert Dallek, noted historian and author, points out that this is not the first time the United States has been beset by seemingly overwhelming problems.
“You know, we’ve been through many difficult moments,” Dallek said in an interview with VOA. “Like 1968, when the country was locked into the war in Vietnam and you had inner-city riots, and [Lyndon] Johnson announced he wasn’t going to run for president again.”
At the time, a travel agency in France was pitching vacations in the United States with the tagline, “See America while it lasts,” Dallek said.
“It was a time when people also thought that America was slowly coming to an end and might be heading into a new Civil War, and so there are echoes of that here,” he said. However, he stressed that there are reasons to be hopeful. The United States did not descend into war, the war in Vietnam eventually came to an end, and civil unrest abated.
None of this, however, is to suggest that the real anxiety Americans feel is misplaced or imagined. Perhaps the most stressful issue facing Americans right now is the crisis unfolding in the Middle East.
Attack on US Embassy in Baghdad
On New Year’s Eve, Americans woke up to the news that the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone was under siege by a mob that had broken into a reception area and set part of the structure on fire. The protests followed a December 29 U.S strike against Iranian-backed Kataeb Hezbollah sites in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for the killing of a U.S. civilian contractor near the Iraqi city of Kirkuk two days earlier. The Pentagon announced that it was dispatching troops to the region, a number that quickly grew into the thousands.
Later on Twitter, Trump promised retribution if the attackers, reported to have connections to an Iran-backed militia group, harmed embassy personnel or damaged U.S. property. “This is not a Warning, it is a Threat. Happy New Year!” he wrote.
US drone strike on Soleimani
Two days later, shortly after landing at Baghdad International Airport, General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s notorious Quds Force, was killed in a drone strike that had been personally ordered by Trump.
Soleimani, who directed operations that have led to the killing of hundreds of American soldiers in Iraq and untold thousands of civilian deaths across the Middle East, was generally considered the second-most-powerful figure in the Iranian government.
Iran, promising revenge, observed three days of mourning for Soleimani before launching missiles at two installations in Iraq housing American military personnel. There was reason to believe that the missile strikes were more symbolic than dangerous.
But any hope that the limited Iranian response might reduce the tension in the region was dashed just hours later, when a Ukrainian jetliner with 176 travelers on board crashed outside Tehran. By the weekend, it had become clear that nervous Iranian air defense forces, on alert for U.S. retaliation after the strikes in Iraq, shot down the plane by accident, a fact that Iran eventually admitted.
More sanctions for Iran
The United States announced Friday morning that it would impose new economic sanctions on Iran. These would come on top of existing penalties that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has described as the most punishing the U.S. has ever levied on another country. Many Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans complained that Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other senior administration officials have misled Congress and the public in arguing that Suleimani had posed an “imminent” threat.
In Tehran on Saturday, the ambassador of Britain was arrested and held for several hours after attending a vigil for the 176 people killed in the attack on the Ukrainian airliner. The highly unusual step by Iran was accompanied by accusations that the diplomat incited street protests against the Iranian regime, a charge the British government hotly denied.
Within the U.S., the collective response to the unfolding crisis in the Middle East has been unease about where all this will end. Social media has been rife with references — some joking, some not — to an imminent World War III. But experts point out the likelihood of all-out war between the United States and Iran is low.
At the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, professor of political science Michael Horowitz and senior fellow Elizabeth Saunders wrote Friday, “Blowback may be coming, and the U.S. strike against Soleimani may increase the risk of bad outcomes short of an all-out war. Those are reasons for concern. But it’s critical to distinguish such consequences from a general war.”
They added, “There will no doubt be consequences — but general war remains unlikely.”
A desire for ‘normalcy’
Dallek, the presidential historian, said that in his view, the most likely outcome of a lengthy period of civic stress is an electorate primed for a return to perceived normalcy. This is something the Democrats are counting on as the 2020 presidential campaign heats up.
“I think the outcome of all this is going to be like in 1968, when the country wanted to get back to some kind of continuity,” Dallek said.
It was that election in 1968, of course, that gave the United States the Nixon presidency.
The White House is voicing strong support for Iranian protesters who took to the streets to decry the shoot down of a Ukrainian commercial jetliner outside Tehran last week. VOA’s Michael Bowman reports, the Trump administration faces continued bipartisan pressure from Congress to provide more details on the intelligence that prompted the U.S.’s targeted killing of an Iranian general, as Democrats seek to rein in the president’s ability to unilaterally order military action against Iran.
Hong Kong denied entry to the executive director of Human Rights Watch, the international watchdog said Sunday.
Kenneth Roth, who traveled to Hong Kong with plans to launch the organization’s “World Report 2020,” was told he could not enter when he landed at Hong Kong International Airport on Sunday. Human Rights Watch said that immigration agents gave no reason as to why the U.S. citizen was denied entry.
“I had hoped to spotlight Beijing’s deepening assault on international efforts to uphold human rights,” Roth said. “The refusal to let me enter Hong Kong vividly illustrates the problem.”
I flew to Hong Kong to release @HRW’s new World Report. This year it describes how the Chinese government is undermining the international human rights system. But the authorities just blocked my entrance to Hong Kong, illustrating the worsening problem. https://t.co/GRUaGh8QUbpic.twitter.com/iTHVEXdbwO
— Kenneth Roth (@KenRoth) January 12, 2020
Human Rights Watch was scheduled to release the report on January 15th at a news conference. Roth’s introductory essay to the 652-page report warns that China’s government is “carrying out an intensive attack on the global system for enforcing human rights.”
The watchdog said Roth will now present the report Jan. 14 from New York City.
The Dec. 22 parliamentary elections in Uzbekistan highlighted the complex mix of change and inertia that characterizes this Central Asian country today.
In Almalyk, an industrial town in the Tashkent region, leading journalist Dilfuza Ruziyeva said corruption is still deeply rooted, even so close to the country’s capital.
“There is very little accountability and transparency despite reform efforts and bold statements from Tashkent,” said Ruziyeva, the chief editor of the local newspaper.
Yet modest changes abound. Uzbekistan’s politicians, however befuddled they sometimes seem by the new need to respond to voters, were compelled to acknowledge and then commit to address citizens’ growing demands.
Indeed, Uzbekistan’s political class, which has long had a sense of insulation and impunity, now seems to recognize, sometimes quite explicitly, that it owes the public real answers to real problems.
Take Senator Rahmatulla Nazarov, who is shifting jobs to manage a think tank. In an impromptu interview with VOA at his suburban Tashkent polling station, he acknowledged that “distrust in the system is the biggest problem.”
Such an acknowledgement — an admission that the system has simply not been responsive to citizen concerns — has become common here, and it is changing the political discourse.
Alisher Qodirov, who leads Milliy Tiklanish (National Revival Party), told VOA that “for the longest time, we punished those who wanted change and pushed for progress. We tortured them, we killed them … we kicked them out. We must learn to honor the human being, ideas and human rights. Only then can Uzbekistan move forward as a society and state.”
His party claims to be the most critical of the government among the five parties that were permitted to contest the election. In fact, none of the state-sanctioned parties really opposes the policies of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev; what has changed is that the lack of real opposition can now be openly discussed.
At a pre-election debate Dec. 19, VOA asked party leaders whether they should place a higher value on security or freedom. All five leaders replied that both were important and made sure to claim to be against torture and the abuse of human rights.
Yet they offered few, if any, specific policy proposals for achieving a more balanced system. Indeed, all five struggled to explain more specific policy positions, much less differences, perhaps because so little sets them apart, and because the president, not the parties or the legislature, sets the agenda for the country. Reforms happen when Mirziyoyev wants them.
Adolat (Justice Party) leader and former presidential candidate Narimon Umarov bluntly says the political elite “did what we had to do” during the rule of the late dictator Islam Karimov, and urges citizens to “focus on the present and future now.” He says Uzbek politicians should feel “challenged in every way” by public expectations, while adding that he is personally “hopeful and energized.”
Aktam Haitov, leader of Mirziyoyev’s own Liberal Democratic Party (O’zLiDep), argues that the party deserves credit for the progress so far. O’zLiDep says it is pushing for deeper reforms in agriculture and to empower the private sector, precisely reflecting Mirziyoyev’s stated policy goals.
Ulugbek Inoyatov is a teacher who became education minister and has been widely criticized for not being effective in that role. Now, he leads Uzbekistan’s People’s Democratic Party and acknowledges that “the election campaign was a learning process for me.”
Inoyatov’s party did not have prescriptions for every problem, and its program still lacks substance. But he stresses the benefits of the improved process: “This campaign and our engagement with the people around the country is helping us to strengthen our focus,” he said.
It is easy to dismiss the electoral process, as many international observers have. Uzbekistan is neither a constitutional democracy nor on the way to becoming one. But by creating an opening for social mobilization, for citizens to question authorities, and by forcing the politicians to respond to public expectations and demands, the process marked a step toward more diverse politics.
More questions on more issues were openly aired than at any time in recent memory, including by the media. At live debates, the press corps was aggressive. And not surprisingly, the party representatives on stage seemed nervous, confused and at times forgot why they were even there.
It was long forbidden to discuss the government’s refusal to allow visits to Uzbekistan by thousands of overseas Uzbek natives, citizens and non-citizens alike. Some fear they are on blacklists, while others are simply denied entry. But during the election debate, the leaders of all five parties felt compelled to say that the country is — or should be — open to these compatriots.
The next challenge will be to see whether the newly elected parliament can exercise more meaningful oversight of the administration.
Akmal Burhanov, a reelected MP, is calling for an end to the practice whereby legislators also operate businesses or even serve simultaneously as regional governors. Those who are elected today should work as lawmakers only if they are to provide an effective check on the government, he said.
That is why the biggest tests are yet to come. The parliament is more representative than ever before for instance, nearly one-third of its members are women, the most in its history. But as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe noted the day after the contest, “The elections showed that the ongoing reforms need to continue and be accompanied by more opportunities for grassroot civic initiatives.”
The morning of Dec. 22, dawned cold but bright in Tashkent, the Uzbek capital, as a morning snowfall gave way to afternoon light. For the first time since the death in 2016 of the country’s longtime strongman, Islam Karimov, voters went to the polls to choose a parliament and local councils.
For the first time also, they projected the heightened expectations of a much more mobilized and aware citizenry, despite their low opinion of the current crop of candidates for the so-far toothless legislature.
“Members of parliament have no trust or respect [from] the citizens because citizens don’t feel their impact,” said Kamil Fakhrutdinov, a blogger in the region of Kashkadarya. His Yakkabog24 focuses on once-forbidden socio-political issues.
Meaningful change
Three weeks after the election, it is apparent that something meaningful has changed in this Central Asian republic, even though the electoral process itself was flawed and the country remains an authoritarian regime.
Even this highly circumscribed election gave citizens and the media space to ask questions that would have been unthinkable just three years ago.
“We are not the same passive society we were three years ago,” Fakhrutdinov told VOA. “So those who want to represent us must know that they will have been gifted [with] a trust and charged with working for the people.”
Since coming to power three years ago, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has announced a spate of reforms and changed some elements of this once brutal dictatorship. He has openly acknowledged the country’s legacy of torture and human rights abuses, removed from power the feared leader of the Uzbek security services, and dismissed dozens of national and local officials, including from the country’s coercive apparatus, such as the prosecutor’s office.
But Mirziyoyev’s hopeful words and modest actions have raised expectations sky-high, not just among international observers but, more important, among Uzbek citizens themselves. Uzbekistan is no democracy, but its citizens approached their first post-Karimov opportunity to cast votes with very real expectations for change.
Across the country, from Tashkent to regional cities like Namangan in the Fergana Valley, the process raised hopes that in the future Mirziyoyev might undertake bolder reforms and adopt enduring systemic changes. But the management of the Dec. 22 election also served to demonstrate the limits to the president’s reform agenda.
Five parties, little difference
The central problem for Mirziyoyev is that he aims to preserve the core elements of Uzbekistan’s political and economic system, and his own power, even as he opens greater space for rulers and ruled to interact. His government permitted five parties to contest seats, but all five were pro-presidential parties, chartered by the state and with proposed policies that varied not at all from Mirziyoyev’s and very little from one another’s.
No opposition parties, or opposition politicians in exile, were permitted to participate.
The Uzbek parliament itself has been historically weak. In interviews with members of the Mirziyoyev administration, as well as with the private sector, the most common criticism of parliamentarians was their lack of professionalism. Many fail to grasp even the basics of lawmaking and oversight.
That has been much on the minds of those who showed up at polling stations on voting day.
Namangan-based human rights defender Zohidjon Zakirov told VOA that voters in his region knew very little about parliamentary or local council elections, much less who was running or for what office. That sentiment was echoed in comments to VOA at polling stations.
To be sure, the voters were interested in the election. But few had illusions that meaningful changes could be expected from the candidates, who often seemed confused about why they were running, or what policies they would espouse should they win a seat.
Even so, the cynicism among the voters found expression in ways that, in themselves, suggested just how much has changed in Uzbekistan. For decades, the Uzbek media have been tightly controlled and a reliable mouthpiece of the state. But private journalists and bloggers found their voices in this contest. They asked tough questions of the candidates at state-organized debates.
In recent weeks, a humorous fake television advertisement, “As Much As We Can,” lampooned the electoral process, making fun of all five of the officially sanctioned parties by noting that they had simply promised to do “as much as we can.” The video and other commentary directly addressed the lack of substance and relevance in the political parties’ agendas.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR), which monitored the election, issued an official statement emphasizing that while the vote “took place under improved legislation and with greater tolerance of independent voices,” it “did not yet demonstrate genuine competition and full respect of election day procedures.”
Still, it added, “The contesting parties presented their political platforms and the media hosted debates, many aired live.” For a country that was among the world’s worst dictatorships just three years ago, that is notable progress that will raise citizen expectations all the more.
Hundreds of Iranians protested in several cities around the country Saturday after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps admitted to mistakenly shooting down a civilian Ukrainian plane, killing all 176 on board.
The protests were not limited to Tehran. People in the northern city of Rasht called Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his allies “shameless.”
Anti-riot police watch protesters near Amirkabir University in Tehran.
Protest videos show some demonstrators shouting, “Down with the dictator!” and calling Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a “traitor,” near Tehran’s Polytechnic (Amirkabir) University.
In a video posted to filmmaker Jafar Panahi’s Instagram account, police fire tear gas at demonstrators near near Amirkabir University in Tehran.
Protesters near Sharif University in Tehran chant, “Our leader is ignorant and a source of shame.”
* VOA could not independently verify the authenticity of these videos.
In the face of mounting evidence, Iran acknowledged Saturday that it had shot down a Ukrainian jetliner by accident this week after it took off in Tehran, killing all 176 people aboard.
Once Iran made the admission, after three days of denying it was responsible, the reaction came swiftly, from Iran and around the world.
From Iran:
General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ aerospace division, said his unit accepted full responsibility for the shootdown. In an address broadcast by state TV, he said that when he learned about the downing of the plane, “I wished I was dead.”
Hajizadeh said the missile operator mistook the 737 for a cruise missile and didn’t obtain approval from his superiors because of disruptions in communications.
“He had 10 seconds to decide. He could have decided to strike or not to strike and under such circumstances, he took the wrong decision,” Hajizadeh said.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, expressed his “deep sympathy” to the families of the victims and called on the armed forces to “pursue probable shortcomings and guilt in the painful incident.”
President Hassan Rouhani acknowledged his country’s responsibility.
“Iran is very much saddened by this catastrophic mistake and I, on behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, express my deep condolences to the families of victims of this painful catastrophe,” the president said.
Rouhani added he had ordered “all relevant bodies to take all necessary actions [to ensure] compensation” to the families of those killed.
A leader of Iran’s opposition Green Movement, Mehdi Karroubi, called on Khamenei to step down over the handling of the downed airliner.
From Ukraine:
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy thanked the U.S, Britain, Canada and others for information about the crash. He said it “undoubtedly helped” push Iran to acknowledge its responsibility. Zelenskiy said the crash investigation should continue and the “perpetrators” should be brought to justice.
“It’s absolutely irresponsible,” Ukraine International Airlines Vice President Ihor Sosnovskiy told reporters. “There must be protection around ordinary people. If they are shooting somewhere from somewhere, they are obliged to close the airport.”
From Canada:
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded Iran provide “full clarity” on the downing of the plane, which Ottawa said had 57 Canadian citizens aboard.
“What Iran has admitted to is very serious. Shooting down a civilian aircraft is horrific. Iran must take full responsibility,” Trudeau told a news conference in Ottawa. “Canada will not rest until we get the accountability, justice and closure that the families deserve.”
Foreign governments condemned the downing of the plane, with Ukraine demanding compensation. Canada, Ukraine and Britain, however, called Tehran’s admission an important first step.
The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse, and Reuters contributed to this report.
In a defining week for President Donald Trump on the world stage, national security adviser Robert O’Brien was a constant presence at the president’s side as the U.S. edged to the brink of war with Iran and back again.
The contrasts with O’Brien’s predecessor along the way — in secret consultations at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, in the Oval Office and in basement deliberations in the White House Situation Room — could not have been more stark.
While former national security adviser John Bolton spent decades as a conservative iconoclast in the public arena, O’Brien is far from a household name. While Bolton had strong opinions he shared loudly in the Oval Office, O’Brien has worked to establish an amiable relationship with Trump.
And while Bolton’s trademark mustache was a target of Trump’s mockery, the president is drawn to O’Brien’s low-key California vibe and style.
“Right out of central casting,” Trump says of O’Brien.
Rapport with Trump
For all the differences between the two men, though, O’Brien ended up signing off on the same course of action that Bolton had long endorsed: a strike to take out Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani. The decision drew retaliatory missile strikes from Tehran.
The way that O’Brien steered the Trump White House through the process endeared himself to the president and widened his rapidly growing influence in the West Wing.
“He’s a deal guy and the president’s a deal guy,” said Jared Kushner, a senior White House adviser. “A lot of people inside the foreign policy establishment are good at explaining why things are wrong but are petrified to put things in play and take calculated risks.”
The Iran drama was set in motion when Trump summoned O’Brien from Los Angeles to the president’s Palm Beach spread, where Trump was spending a two-week winter holiday. While other top aides, including Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, consulted with the president from afar, Trump wanted O’Brien at his side.
“Robert was calm, cool and collected, constantly keeping the president updated,” Kushner said.
More than a half-dozen current and former administration officials and Republicans close to the White House contributed to this account. Many spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
Rise of a new voice
Trump has long been known for tuning out old voices in favor of new ones, but O’Brien’s rise in the president’s inner circle has been rapid. The 53-year-old O’Brien, who has handled scores of complex international litigation, has a corner office on the first floor of the White House, a few steps from the Oval Office.
A sharp-dressing Republican lawyer who worked in the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, O’Brien was appointed by Trump in May 2018 to be the nation’s top hostage negotiator. He successfully worked for the release of several Americans, including pastor Andrew Brunson, who spent two years in a Turkish prison. O’Brien also traveled to Sweden to lobby for the release of rapper A$AP Rocky, imprisoned on an assault charge.
Bolton, Trump’s third national security adviser, fell out of favor with the president after a series of sharp disagreements, including over North Korea and Iran policies. He was forced out in September. Trump’s previous national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, never developed a personal rapport with the president, who tuned out on McMaster’s long-winded briefing style.
Bolton had frequently tussled with Pompeo and Defense Department officials and, at times, frustrated the president with his sharp clashes and bureaucratic knife-fighting.
Honest, collaborative
O’Brien, in contrast, makes it a point to collaborate with the State Department and the Pentagon. People familiar with his work style describe an honest broker who is diplomatic but direct. He is known to present the views of Pompeo and top defense and intelligence officials to the president as he would brief a legal client.
Colleagues say he doesn’t try to push his own foreign policy ideas on the president and is more deferential to the views from other agencies than was Bolton. He has a plaque on his desk that says, “There is no limit to what a man can do or where he can go if he doesn’t mind who gets the credit.” It’s a replica of the one President Ronald Reagan kept on his desk in the Oval Office.
Administration officials, at least for now, point to a new camaraderie in the latest incarnation of Trump’s national security team: Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper were West Point classmates; Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has grown close to Trump; and O’Brien, unlike Bolton, has not tried to pull an end run around others in the decision-making process.
“I think he’s very comfortable with the idea of the job as a staff job, which I think is the model,” said former Sen. Jim Talent, a Missouri Republican who met O’Brien more than a decade ago when they were advising Mitt Romney’s 2008 presidential campaign. “Obviously when the president asks for his advice, he gives his personal opinion.”
Critics see ‘yes’ men without gravitas
Where Republicans see as collegial team, some Democratic critics worry that Trump is surrounding himself with advisers too eager to accede to his views.
New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the administration’s national security team seems to lack “discerning voices.”
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., lamented this past week that Trump’s current team lacked the gravitas of earlier advisers, including former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and McMaster, both retired generals.
“People like Mattis and McMaster, who disagree with the president because he’s so erratic, leave — leaving a bunch of ‘yes’ people, who seem to want to do whatever the president wants,” Schumer said recently on the Senate floor.
After the drone strike on Soleimani, there was a deliberate effort to give the Iranians some space to react without committing the U.S. to a military response. Even as Trump delivered fire and brimstone warnings, the rest of his national security team gave indications that not every Iranian response would send American missiles flying. When Tehran’s rockets left no casualties in attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, the crisis abated, at least for the moment.
While former advisers such as Mattis and McMaster, attempted to check some of the president’s impulses, O’Brien has been regarded as enabling some of Trump’s high-risk inclinations.
O’Brien’s style has been to offer pros and cons before ultimately agreeing with Trump’s decisions, including the moves to abruptly withdraw U.S. troops from Kurdish-held territory in Syria and the military raid that killed Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
O’Brien has established good relationships at the White House and on Capitol Hill, said Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah.
“Every time I talk to the president about him — and his name comes up a fair amount when the president and I are talking — the president just always speaks glowingly about him,” said the Utah senator. He added that O’Brien “has a client. He doesn’t have his own agenda that he’s pursuing.”