Month: September 2018

Into the Fold? What’s Next for Instagram as Founders Leave

When Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger sold Instagram to Facebook in 2012, the photo-sharing startup’s fiercely loyal fans worried about what would happen to their beloved app under the social media giant’s wings. 

None of their worst fears materialized. But now that its founders have announced they are leaving in a swirl of well wishes and vague explanations, some of the same worries are bubbling up again — and then some. Will Instagram disappear? Get cluttered with ads and status updates? Suck up personal data for advertising the way its parent does? Lose its cool? 

Worst of all: Will it just become another Facebook?

“It”s probably a bigger challenge (for Facebook) than most people realize,” said Omar Akhtar, an analyst at the technology research firm Altimeter. “Instagram is the only platform that is growing. And a lot of people didn’t necessarily make the connection between Instagram and Facebook.”

Instagram had just 31 million users when Facebook snapped it up for $1 billion; now it has a billion. It had no ads back then; it now features both display and video ads, although they’re still restrained compared to Facebook. But that could quickly change. Facebook’s growth has started to slow, and Wall Street has been pushing the company to find new ways to increase revenue.

Instagram has been a primary focus of those efforts.

Facebook has been elevating Instagram’s profile in its financial discussions. In July, it unveiled a new metric for analysts, touting that 2.5 billion people use at least one of its apps — Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp or Messenger — each month. While not particularly revealing, the measurement underscores the growing importance Facebook places on those secondary apps. 

Facebook doesn’t disclose how much money Instagram pulls in, though Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter estimates it’ll be around $6 billion this year, or just over 10 percent of Facebook’s expected overall revenue of about $55.7 billion. 

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has long seen Instagram’s promise. At the time, it was by far Facebook’s largest acquisition (although it was dwarfed by the $19 billion Zuckerberg paid for WhatsApp two years later). And it was the first startup allowed to operate mostly independently. 

That has paid off big time. Not only did Instagram reach 1 billion users faster than its parent company, it also succeeded in cloning a popular Snapchat feature, dealing a serious blow to that social network upstart and succeeding where Facebook’s own attempts had repeatedly failed. Instagram also pioneered a long-form video feature to challenge YouTube, another big Facebook rival.

Recently, Instagram has been on a roll. In June, Systrom traveled to New York to mark the opening of its new office there, complete with a gelato bar and plans to hire hundreds of engineers. Only a month earlier, Instagram had moved into sparkly new offices in San Francisco. In a July earnings call, Zuckerberg touted Instagram’s success as a function of its integration with Facebook, claiming that it used parent-company infrastructure to grow “more than twice as quickly as it would have on its own.”

But Instagram has also been a case study in how to run a subsidiary independently — especially when its parent is mired in user-privacy problems and concerns about election interference, fake news and misinformation. And especially when its parent has long stopped being cool, what with everyone and their grandma now on it.

Instagram’s simple design — just a collection of photos and videos of sunsets, faraway vacations, intimate breakfasts and baby close-ups — has allowed it to remain a favorite long after it became part of Facebook. If people go to Twitter to bicker over current events and to Facebook to see what old classmates are up to, Instagram is where they go to relax, scroll and feast their eyes.

So, will that change?

“I don’t think Zuckerberg is dumb,” Akhtar said. “He knows that a large part of Instagram’s popularity is that it’s separate from Facebook.”

As such, he thinks Facebook would be wise to reassure users that what they love about Instagram isn’t going to change — that they are not going to be forced to integrate with Facebook. “That’ll go a long way,” he said. 

Internally, the challenge is a bit more complicated. While Systrom and Krieger didn’t say why they’re leaving, their decision echoes the recent departure of WhatsApp’s co-founder and CEO Jan Koum, who resigned in April. Koum had signaled years earlier that he would take a stand if Facebook’s push to increase profits risked compromising core elements of the WhatsApp messaging service, such as its dedication to user privacy. When Facebook started pushing harder for more revenue and more integration with WhatsApp, Koum pulled the ripcord.

One sign that additional integration may be in Instagram’s future: Zuckerberg in May sent longtime Facebook executive Adam Mosseri to run Instagram’s product operation. Mosseri replaced longtime Instagrammer Kevin Weil, who was shuffled back to the Facebook mothership. 

That likely didn’t sit well with Instagram’s founders, Akhtar and other analysts said. Now that they’re gone as well, Mosseri is the most obvious candidate to head Instagram. 

“Kevin Systrom loyalists are probably going to leave,” Akhtar said. 

Which means Facebook may soon have a new challenge on its hands: Figuring out how to keep Instagram growing if it loses the coolness factor that has bolstered it for so long.

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Automakers Seek Flexibility at Hearing on Mileage Standards

Automakers sought flexibility while environmental groups blasted the Trump administration’s proposal to roll back fuel economy standards at a public hearing on the plan in the industry’s backyard.

At the hearing Tuesday in Dearborn, Michigan, home to Ford Motor Co. and just miles from the General Motors and Fiat Chrysler home offices, industry officials repeated two themes: They’ll keep working to make cars and trucks more efficient, but they may not be able to meet existing standards because people are buying more trucks and SUVs.

Environmental groups, though, urged the government to scrap its plan to roll back the standards and instead keep in place the ones that were reaffirmed in the waning days of the Obama administration. They said the technology to meet the standards at low costs is available, and they accused President Donald Trump’s Department of Transportation of twisting numbers to justify the rollback.

Nearly 150 people were scheduled to testify at the hearing, the second on the preferred option of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and Environmental Protection Agency to freeze the standards at 2020 levels.

In 2016, for the first time since the latest standards started, the auto industry couldn’t meet them without using emissions credits earned in prior years, said Steve Bartoli, vice president of fuel economy compliance for Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. The reason is because with relatively low gas prices, people are buying more trucks and SUVs rather than fuel-efficient cars, he said.

Last year, cars made up only 36 percent of the U.S. new-vehicle fleet, something that wasn’t expected when the current requirements were put in place six years ago, he said. “The forecasts referenced by the agencies at that time showed cars increasing from 50 percent to 57 percent of annual vehicle sales by 2025,” Bartoli said.

The Obama EPA proposed raising the standard to 36 miles per gallon (15 kilometers per liter) by 2025, about 10 miles per gallon (4 kilometers per liter) higher than the current requirement. The goal was to reduce car emissions and save money at the pump.

Trump administration officials say waiving the tougher fuel efficiency requirements would make vehicles more affordable, which would get safer cars into consumers’ hands more quickly.

Industry response

Bartoli and other industry representatives said they’ll keep making vehicles more efficient, but need the more flexible standards because of the market shift. Industry officials said they don’t support a full freeze on the standards.

“FCA is willing to work with all parties on a data-driven final rule that results in market-facing fuel economy improvements that also support greater penetration of alternative powertrains” such as electric vehicles, Bartoli said.

Rhett Ricart, a Columbus, Ohio, car dealer who is regulatory chairman for the National Automobile Dealers Association, said trying to force people into efficient cars is like trying to make a 3-year-old eat vegetables. “If he doesn’t like vegetables, you can’t stuff his mouth full of them,” Ricart said.

Environmental response

But environmental groups said the Obama standards should remain in place, arguing that the technology is advancing so fast that automakers can meet the standards without adding huge costs for consumers. They said by the EPA’s own calculations, 60,000 jobs will be lost by 2030 developing and building fuel efficient technologies. They urged NHTSA and the EPA, which are holding the hearings, to scrap their preferred option of a freeze.

John German, senior fellow with the International Council on Clean Transportation, a group that pushes for stronger standards, said outside the hearing that the Trump administration’s cost estimates per car for the Obama standards are inflated to justify the freeze. Consumer savings at the pump are roughly three times the cost, which the ICCT calculates to be $551 per vehicle.

He also said the industry has developed lower-cost improvements to internal combustion powertrains faster than expected, so auto companies can meet standards without selling a lot of electric vehicles.

Environmental groups also said the Obama standards vary with vehicle size and give the industry flexibility to meet them. “The standards are working as designed,” German said.

California response

At Monday’s hearing in Fresno, California, state officials said the proposed rollback would damage people’s health and exacerbate climate change, and they demanded the Trump administration back off.

Looming over the administration’s proposal is the possibility that California, which has become a key leader on climate change as Trump has moved to dismantle Obama-era environmental rules, could set its own fuel standard that could roil the auto industry. That’s a change the federal government is trying to block.

“California will take whatever actions are needed to protect our people and follow the law,” Mary Nichols, chairwoman of the California Air Resources Board, testified at the hearing.

Automakers want one standard for the whole country, so they don’t have to design different vehicles for California and the states that follow its requirements.

Another hearing is planned Wednesday in Pittsburgh.

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GSK Vaccine Success a Milestone in TB, But Room for Improvement

An experimental GlaxoSmithKline vaccine could prevent tuberculosis developing in half of those who receive it, making it potentially the first new shot against the global killer in a century, researchers said on Tuesday.

Given the failure of other candidates in recent years, it marks a milestone in the fight against TB, although the 54 percent efficacy rate achieved in adults in a mid-stage clinical trial is low compared to immunizations for other diseases.

The current vaccine called Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) was developed in 1921 and is given routinely to babies in countries with high rates of TB to prevent severe disease.

However, BCG protection wears off in just a few years and it does nothing to protect against the most common form of TB that invades the lungs of adults and adolescents, and can be transmitted through coughing and sneezing.

A more effective vaccine is viewed by experts as key to controlling TB and fighting the growing scourge of drug-resistant infection. With TB a major focus for global health, the United Nations is holding its first ever high-level meeting on the disease in New York on Wednesday.

GSK’s vaccine is designed to stop latent TB from becoming active and causing sickness. An estimated 1.7 billion people – one quarter of the global population – have latent TB infection, putting them at risk of a disease that killed 1.6 million people last year.

Results of an ongoing Phase IIb trial of the vaccine – known as M72/AS01 and developed by GSK in conjunction with Aeras, a nonprofit TB group backed by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation – were published online by the New England Journal of Medicine.

After a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, 10 of the 1,786 adults vaccinated twice developed active pulmonary TB compared with 22 of the 1,787 given two placebo injections. The study was conducted in Kenya, Zambia and South Africa.

The vaccine did produce more side effects than placebo, with two-thirds of participants reporting at least one adverse event, typically injection-site reactions or flu-like symptoms.

Most of the volunteers had received the BCG vaccine and all were HIV negative. People with HIV are more vulnerable to TB because their immune systems are weakened.

Areas Chief Executive Jacqui Shea said the results were “ground-breaking” and showed that more effective TB vaccines were achievable.

GSK is confident it can do better in future, with larger trials set to refine the vaccine’s dosing schedule and potentially target specific groups of patients who are most likely to benefit.

“It’s the first time we really tested the biological potential of our vaccine and we think that there is a lot of additional improvement now that we can bring,” the company’s head of vaccines research, Emmanuel Hanon, told Reuters.

TB is a particularly tricky disease to vaccinate against because the bacteria that cause it can hide from the body’s immune system and scientists lack protective markers in the blood to predict whether a vaccine will work.

As a result, TB vaccines must be tested in big clinical trials, a large and costly gamble.

Mike Turner, head of infection and immunobiology at the Wellcome Trust medial charity, said the encouraging results represented a “landmark moment” and M72/AS01 now needed to be tested in much larger numbers of people.

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Global $500M Data Drive Aims to Boost Harvests, End Hunger

A $500 million data drive aims to improve the harvests of hundreds of millions of farmers worldwide as rising hunger levels threaten a global goal to end hunger by 2030, organizations involved in the initiative said Tuesday.

Developing countries and donors launched the “50 X 2030” scheme on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, seeking funding to gather farming data through surveys in 50 nations across Africa, Asia and Latin America over the next 12 years.

Basic statistics, such as what farmers are planting, their yields and access to finance, are often lacking, incomplete or unreliable, making it difficult for governments and donors to know where or how to invest their cash, the United Nations said.

“Each year, governments, businesses and the private sector invest hundreds of billions of dollars in agriculture and design policies without this critical information,” said Emily Hogue, a U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization senior adviser. “This could cause losses in agricultural productivity and income and could also lead to continuing hunger and poverty.”

The push for better data was announced weeks after new U.N. figures showed world hunger has risen for three years running, with 821 million people — one in nine — going hungry in 2017.

Eliminating hunger is one of the 17 U.N. sustainable development goals ( agreed upon by world leaders in 2015.

The initiative aims to increase the coverage and frequency of agricultural surveys so that governments have the information needed to plan and implement the right policies, experts said.

In sub-Saharan Africa, where at least one in four people is estimated to have suffered from chronic hunger in 2017, only two out of 44 nations have high-quality agriculture data, according to the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data.

For example, agriculture experts puzzled for years over why milk production was stagnant in an area of East Africa with an abundance of grazing land and rising consumer demand. A detailed survey conducted in 2014 discovered that a lack of basic livestock services, including veterinary care, was hampering production, which rose after the needs were addressed.

“Better data means governments can get the right support to farmers at the right time to increase production and improve their lives,” Claire Melamed, head of the Global Partnership — a network of 300 partners — told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “It’s a long-term investment.”

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Number of Babies Born With Syphilis in US Doubles in Four Years 

The number of babies born infected with syphilis in the United States has more than doubled since 2013, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In a report released Tuesday, the CDC said the number of cases of congenital syphilis, in which the disease is passed from the mother to the baby, increased 153 percent — from 362 in 2013 to 918 in 2017.

“When a baby gets syphilis, it means the system has failed that mother repeatedly, both before and during her pregnancy,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

“If STD prevention programs had anywhere near the support they need, no new mom would ever have to cope with this devastating diagnosis,” he said.

Syphilis is easily treatable with antibiotics. But when untreated in the mother, it increases the risk of miscarriage and newborn death. Children born with the disease can suffer severe health consequences, including deformed bones, blindness or deafness.

About 70 percent of the cases of congenital syphilis in the U.S. over the span studied were found in California, Florida, Louisiana, New Mexico and Texas. 

Harvey said women should be tested before becoming pregnant, soon after becoming pregnant, and throughout the pregnancy. 

One-third of the mothers who gave birth to babies with congenital syphilis had been tested. But the tests were performed too late in their pregnancies to prevent the infection of the fetuses, or the women became infected after being tested. 

“That we have any cases of syphilis among newborns, let alone an increasing number, is a failure of the health care system,” Harvey said. 

Congenital syphilis is only a part of the nation’s growing STD crisis. According to the CDC, the three most easily treatable sexually transmitted diseases — chlamydia, gonorrhea and syphilis — rose nearly 10 percent in 2017 to an all-time high of nearly 2.3 million cases. That eclipsed the previous record total from 2016 by more than 200,000 cases.

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Trade Minister: Updated Peru-China Trade Deal May Be Ready by 2020

An update of Peru’s trade agreement with China could be completed as soon as 2020, and certainly by the time President Martin Vizcarra leaves office, Peruvian Trade Minister Roger Valencia said Tuesday.

Peru and its top trade partner China vowed to update their 2010 bilateral free trade deal shortly after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November 2016.

Trump’s complaints that other countries were taking advantage of the United States on trade, as well as his pledges to pursue an “America First” economic agenda, sparked fears of an upsurge in global protectionism.

Vizcarra’s term ends in July 2021, and the new China accord should be signed by then, Valencia told Reuters in New York as he accompanied Peru’s delegation to the U.N. General Assembly.

“For (20)20, (20)21, we should have an improved agreement, the necessary modifications,” he said.

Peru has said the existing deal with China was negotiated to exclude 11 sectors — including textiles, clothing and shoes.

That took into account Peruvian fears that its local industries could not compete with China if tariffs were lowered.

Peru has also been holding discussions over trade with Britain, whose government wants to boost its trading relations with the rest of the world after it leaves the European Union.

Known as Brexit, that is scheduled to take place in 2019.

Valencia said that Peru and Britain had agreed to ratify their current trading arrangements irrespective of what occurs in the Brexit process. Once Britain had left the EU, the two would work to expand the trade relationship, he added.

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Sudan Reports Outbreak of Mosquito-borne Disease

More than 11,000 people in Sudan’s eastern state of Kassala have been infected over the past month by Chikungunya, a debilitating mosquito-borne viral disease, but no deaths have been reported, a Sudanese official said Tuesday.

Chikungunya is spread by two mosquito species and can cause severe symptoms, which develop three to seven days after a person is bitten by an infected mosquito. They include high fever, headache, muscle pain, back pain and rash. In rare cases, it is fatal. There are no dedicated treatments or vaccines for Chikungunya.

“So far official statistics say that about 11,000 people were infected, and there haven’t been any documented cases of death because of the Chikungunya fever,” said Magzoub Abou Moussa, a spokesman for the Kassala state administration.

Heavy rains

The outbreak began in recent weeks when heavy rains pummeled the area, which led to the flooding of a major river in Kassala.

Abou Moussa said his state had received health and technical aid from Sudan’s health ministry, but expressed concern over the spread of the virus and called for further help.

Eyewitnesses said they had seen planes on Monday sweeping over the state, spraying mosquito pesticides.

Sudanese opposition parties have accused the government of failing to deal with the situation in Kassala and called for international organizations’ help.

“We hold the government fully responsible for the spread of the epidemic,” said a statement from the National Umma Party, the largest opposition party. “We call on civil society organizations and the World Health Organization to help the people of Kassala.”

Activists on social media said the number of people infected by the disease was much higher than the government’s figure and that there had been deaths not documented by the government.

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Antibiotics for Appendicitis? Surgery Often Not Needed

When emergency tests showed the telltale right-sided pain in Heather VanDusen’s abdomen was appendicitis, she figured she’d be quickly wheeled into surgery. But doctors offered her the option of antibiotics instead.

A new study from Finland shows her choice is a reasonable alternative for most patients with appendicitis. Five years after treatment with antibiotics, almost two-thirds of patients hadn’t had another attack.

It’s a substantial change in thinking about how to treat an inflamed appendix. For decades, appendicitis has been considered a medical emergency requiring immediate surgery to remove the appendix because of fears it could burst, which can be life-threatening.

But advances in imaging tests, mainly CT scans, have made it easier to determine if an appendix might burst, or if patients could be safely treated without surgery.

The results suggest that nearly two-thirds of appendicitis patients don’t face that risk and may be good candidates for antibiotics instead.

“It’s a feasible, viable and a safe option,” said Dr. Paulina Salminen, the study’s lead author and a surgeon at Turku University Hospital in Finland.

Her study in adults is the longest follow-up to date of patients treated with drugs instead of surgery for appendicitis, and the results confirm one-year findings reported three years ago.

‘A new era’

Research has also shown antibiotics may work for some children with appendicitis.

The Finnish results were published Tuesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

A journal editorial said “it’s a new era of appendicitis treatment.”

Appendix removal is the most common emergency surgery worldwide, with about 300,000 performed each year in the United States alone, said Salminen. She said the results from her study suggest many of those surgeries could be avoided.

U.S. doctors have started offering antibiotics instead of surgery and Salminen said she occasionally does, too. The journal editorial said appropriate patients should be given that option.

The study involved about 500 Finnish adults who had CT scans to rule out severe cases. Half were treated with antibiotics; the others had surgery.

Among the antibiotics patients, 100 ended up having surgery within five years of treatment — most for a suspected recurrence of appendicitis in the first year. Seven of them did not have appendicitis and likely could have avoided surgery. The results suggest the success rate for antibiotic treatment was almost 64 percent, the authors said.

About 1 in 4 surgery patients had complications, including infections around the incision, abdominal pain and hernias, compared with only 7 percent of antibiotics patients. Antibiotic patients had 11 fewer sick days on average than the surgery group. In the first year, their treatment costs were about 60 percent lower. A cost analysis for the full five years wasn’t included in the published results.

‘Keyhole’ surgery

Surgery patients in the Finnish study all had conventional incisions rather than the less invasive “keyhole” surgeries that are more common for appendix removal in the United States. The nonsurgery patients received three days of IV antibiotics in the hospital, followed by seven days of pills at home.

Dr. Giana Davidson, a University of Washington surgeon, is involved in a similarly designed multicenter U.S. study that may answer whether similar benefits would be seen for antibiotics versus “keyhole” surgery.

Davidson called the Finnish study “a critical piece to the puzzle, but I don’t think it answers all of the questions.”

VanDusen was treated at the University of Washington in 2016. She said she chose antibiotic treatment partly to avoid surgery scars, and now offers advice to patients for Davidson’s study.

“I knew the worst-case scenario was ending up back in the hospital, so why not try antibiotics first?” said VanDusen, who works in university communications.

She said she has done well since her treatment, but that the biggest drawback was “wondering, with every episode of stomach or bad gas, if it could happen again.”

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Loss of Bird Species Hampers Forecasting for Zimbabwe’s Farmers

As the summer planting season approaches in eastern Zimbabwe, small-scale farmers struggle with familiar questions: When will the rains come, and when should I sow my crops?

This year something else is keeping them awake: In late August the government issued a warning about a potential El Niño weather pattern, associated with changes in weather patterns worldwide.

Should El Niño arrive, Zimbabwe might see normal or higher-than-average rains, said Washington Zhakata, director of the country’s Climate Change Department. More likely, though, there would not be enough rain.

“Looking at the past observations … once an El Niño sets in, depending on the strength and nature of the El Niño, the chances of bad rains or below-normal rainfall in Zimbabwe are between 50 and 65 percent,” he said.

In trying to figure out what to plant and when this year, farmers are also missing an old ally: Birds, whose movements traditionally have helped predict coming weather.

Delayed rainfall

In Zimbabwe’s Eastern Highlands the farming season typically starts in late October or early November. But in recent years the weather has become less predictable, and that is a growing problem for farmers.

“At times the rainy season is now starting well into December. The weather is now changing,” said Leonard Madanhire, a farmer in Zimunya, a village close to the Mozambique border.

Once, he said, farmers watched changes in the environment around them – particularly activity by birds – to work out whether or not they could expect a good season.

“We used to learn a lot from the birds about the seasons.

But these birds have long vanished,” he said.

When different species of birds arrived or left told villagers in his subsistence farming community what might be coming: a storm, a change of seasons, even flooding.

Some farmers held off planting until they saw certain species of migratory birds. The appearance of one particular type of stork – known as shuramurove – foretold a good rainy season, for instance.

But most of the birds once relied on – including the stork – have now vanished, he said.

“We last saw them here more than five years ago,” said Madanhire.

Absent friends

Togarasei Fakarayi, a programme manager at BirdLife Zimbabwe, a non-profit, said changing conditions in the country were having an impact on birds – and there was a clear link between climate change and the diversity and abundance of bird species.

“Birds are sensitive to environmental changes, in particular habitat changes. Climate change causes habitat changes over time – for instance, drying up of forests, grasslands and wetlands habitats as a result of global warming,” he said.

As those changes happen, species may shift or disappear from certain areas, Fakarayi said. More regular dry weather also has led to fires, which can destroy bird habitats.

“Climate change affects routes of migratory birds – in particular food abundance which is key, especially in stopover roosting areas,” he said.

Among the birds that have become far less common in Zimbabwe, Fakarayi said, were bateleur eagles and the southern ground hornbill.

Under the country’s Parks and Wildlife Act, storks and bateleur eagles are listed as specially protected animals, while the southern ground hornbill is considered as vulnerable, Fakarayi said.

The hornbill’s absence is something the farmers of Zimunya know well. In this region, characterized by mountains, forest and montane grasslands, the bird, known as the mariti or matendera, was once much easier to see – and to hear.

“If you hear the deep singing of the southern ground hornbill then you know it’s going to rain and you can plan your day. But these birds are now very rare,” said Madanhire.

That is also the case for the bateleur eagle, or chapungu, whose presence is synonymous with reliable rains, a bountiful harvest and good luck, said farmer Nicholas Kwadzanai Mukundidza.

“Chapungu is now rarely seen in the area, but this bird was sacred. And the honey bird (tsoro) which used to direct us to beehives in the forest has vanished too,” Mukundidza said.

The lack of these birds means that farmers – who until recently combined traditional knowledge with forecasts from the meteorological department in deciding when to sow their crops – find it is harder to plan for changing conditions.

These days, Madanhire said, they do listen to the weather forecasts when they can get them. But, he added with a chuckle, “they are not reliable.”

Climate link

Linia Mashawi Gopo, the principal meteorologist at Zimbabwe’s Meteorological Services Department, said the department’s research indicated some – but not all – farmers use indigenous knowledge to forecast the weather.

“The younger generation prefers scientific forecasts while the older generation use both the (indigenous knowledge) and scientific forecasts,” she said.

But older people have found their traditional forecasting methods becoming less predictable over time, she said – in some cases because the indicators they once relied on had disappeared, while in others the behavior of animals and birds had changed.

“This is mostly attributed to climate change,” she said.

She said more work was needed to correlate indigenous knowledge of forecasting with scientific methods, and to set up a way to use both sets of information.

 

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Japan Preschools Use Tablets to Prep Tots for Digital Age

It’s drawing time at this suburban nursery school in Japan, but instead of crayons, tiny fingers are tapping on colors on iPad screens and taking selfies. Digital schooling has arrived in this nation long known for its zealous commitment to “three R’s” education.

Coby Preschool, in a small town northeast of Tokyo, is among nearly 400 kindergartens and nursery schools in Japan that are using smartphone software applications designed especially for preschoolers called KitS.

That’s only about 1 percent of this nation’s kindergartens and nursery schools. But it’s a start. Coby is helping lead a national initiative in “digital play.”

Parents everywhere worry their children might fall behind, and Japan is no exception.

The government has recently made strengthening technology education national policy even as it struggles to meet its goal of supplying one digital device — computer or tablet — for every three children.

Digital play

With KitS, developed by Tokyo-based startup SmartEducation, children color birds and flowers that appear to come alive as three-dimensional computer graphics. Children also draw various creatures that, when captured as computer images, swim or float around in virtual landscapes.

In a recent session, children got a triangle image on their iPads and were asked to draw on it with digital colors, store that image, and draw another one to create a two-screen story.

 

The usually shy children burst into an uproar, brainstorming happily about what the triangle might represent: a sandwich, a rice ball, a dolphin, a roof, a mountain.

The children were then encouraged to come to the front of the class and explain what they had drawn as the images were shown on a large screen.

“There is no right or wrong answer,” said Akihito Minabe, the preschool principal leading the session.

The point is to nurture creativity, focus and leadership skills.

“They think on their own, they learn it’s OK to think freely, and it’s fun to come up with ideas,” said Minabe.

 In the U.S., 98 percent of children age 8 and under have a mobile device in their homes, while 43 percent have their own tablet, according to The Genius of Play, a U.S. program that researches education and play.

That’s similar to Japan, where each adult has an average of more than one smartphone and about half of preschoolers have access to a mobile device, according to Japanese government data.

 In many U.S., Asian and European preschools and elementary schools, teachers use technology to present stories, music and other information. Educators are also studying children’s social development through how they learn to share digital devices.

Getting smarter?

Much of what’s driving the adoption of tablets in U.S. preschools is a belief, founded or not, that an early start will make kids smarter at technology, said Patricia Cantor, a professor of early childhood education at Plymouth State University in New Hampshire.

However, early research into how tablets and apps affect learning for kids ages 2 to 5 is inconclusive.

“Touchscreen stuff is pretty intuitive. They don’t need training,” Cantor said.

Some studies show positive outcomes among young children using mobile devices to improve their literacy, science or math skills, but there’s little research comparing tablet-assisted learning to more conventional teaching approaches, according to a review of 19 studies by Christothea Herodotou, a lecturer at The Open University in the United Kingdom.

Herodotou said it’s unclear which features might help or hinder learning. Devices and apps can also be misused — for instance, to keep children occupied so teachers can do other things.

“Even if it’s designed to encourage learning or exploration or curiosity, it may not be used in that way,” said Cantor. “There’s so much junk out there.”

Still, the target age for “digital play” is getting ever younger.

Experts have known for years that playing is how children learn, says Ken Seiter, Executive Vice President at The Toy Association, a nonprofit, which represents businesses that design, produce, license and deliver youth-entertainment products.

Toys can teach toddlers simple programming or use augmented reality to bring story characters digitally alive, said Seiter, whose organization spearheads The Genius of Play, a U.S.-based program that researches education and play.

Japan’s take

Japan’s classrooms tend to be more structured than in the West, with students often acting in unison as they line up, bow and chant together. Children tend to be passive, and the emphasis is on the group rather than individuals. Youngsters, even some preschoolers, attend extracurricular cram schools.

KitS’ designers have sought to make activities fun. One aim appears to be nurturing outspokenness.

Yuhei Yamauchi, a professor of information studies at the University of Tokyo and KitS adviser, sees practical benefits.

By the time today’s 5-year-olds start work, most jobs will require computer skills. Given Japan’s shrinking population, people may work into their 80s, shifting jobs several times. Digital skills are more critical than ever, he said.

Digital tools deliver the equivalents of libraries and museums at a child’s fingertips, said Ron Shumsky, a child psychologist who works in Japan. That can be addictive, he cautions, and students must be taught safe and responsible “Digital citizenship,” he said.

It’s so compelling it pulls you in,” he said. “It keeps you wanting more.”

Experts warn that staring for too long at screens can damage eyesight and deter creative thinking. It’s a complex problem, since children may see their parents immersed in devices themselves.

KitS limits each session on the iPad to 15 minutes. Classes are held just 30 times a year.

Family dialogue

At the preschool in Yoshikawa, a sleepy Tokyo bed town ringed by lush rice paddies, the children have mastered time-lapse photography using their iPads.

Japanese preschools like Coby are subsidized by local governments. Fees, including meals, are on a sliding scale based on income with the poorest families paying nothing.

Each preschool pays SmartEducation an initial 500,000 yen ($4,400), not including the cost of the iPads, and 30,000 yen ($265) more a month for maintenance. The cost for training teachers is included.

Students use the iPad message function to send their parents photos of themselves in action and share trailers of their upcoming performances.

The kids are keen to talk about it, and parents say the endeavor encourages communication beyond the usual daily stream of commands: Eat dinner, take a bath, go to bed.

“I realized I tend not to wait for what the children have to say,” said hospital worker Masami Uno, whose son, 5-year-old Ayumu, and 2-year-old daughter attend Coby. “It made me stop and think about that.”

The kids AP spoke with favored the usual sorts of career goals, saying they wanted to be ballerinas and soccer players. None said they wanted to be a computer programmer when they grow up.

But they like the KitS.

“It’s fun,” said Yume Miyasaka, 6.

She noted with a little pride that her father uses an iPad for work. But, referring to her iPad creation, she said, “He usually doesn’t draw shaved ice.”

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Cosby Gets Up to 10 Years in Prison for Sex Assault

His Hollywood career and good-guy image in ruins, an 81-year-old Bill Cosby was sentenced Tuesday to three to 10 years behind bars for drugging and sexually assaulting a woman, becoming the first celebrity of the #MeToo era to be sent to prison.

 

The punishment all but completed the dizzying, late-in-life fall from grace for the comedian, former TV star and breaker of racial barriers.

 

“It is time for justice. Mr. Cosby, this has all circled back to you. The time has come,” Montgomery County Judge Steven O’Neill said. He quoted from victim Andrea Constand’s own statement to the court, in which she said Cosby took her “beautiful, young spirit and crushed it.”

 

Cosby declined the opportunity to speak before the sentence came down, and afterward he sat smiling, laughing and chatting with defense team. His wife of 54 years, Camille, was not in court. Constand smiled broadly upon hearing the punishment and was hugged by others in the courtroom.

 

Cosby’s lawyers asked that he be allowed to remain free on bail while he appeals his conviction, but the judge appeared incredulous over the request and turned it down, saying that even considering Cosby’s age and blindness, “he could quite possibly be a danger to the community.”

 

Cosby was also fined $25,000.

 

Former model Janice Dickinson, who was among the 60 or so women who have come forward to accuse Cosby of drugging and violating them over the past five decades, looked at Cosby and said: “Here’s the last laugh pal.”

 

The punishment came at the end of a two-day hearing at which the judge declared Cosby a  “sexually violent predator” — a modern-day scarlet letter that subjects him to monthly counseling for the rest of his life and requires that neighbors and schools be notified of his whereabouts.

 

The comic once known as America’s Dad for his role on the top-rated “Cosby Show” in the 1980s was convicted in April of violating Constand, Temple University women’s basketball administrator, at his suburban Philadelphia estate in 2004. It was the first celebrity trial of the #MeToo era.

 

Cosby faced a sentence of anywhere from probation to 10 years in prison. His lawyers asked for house arrest, saying Cosby — who is legally blind — is too old and vulnerable to do time in prison. Prosecutors asked for five to 10 years behind bars, saying he could still pose a threat to women.

 

Montgomery County District Attorney Kevin Steele rejected the notion that Cosby’s age and infirmity entitle him to mercy. “He was good at hiding this for a long time. Good at suppressing this for a long time. So it’s taken a long time to get there,” Steele said.

 

The sentencing came as another extraordinary #MeToo drama unfolded on Capitol Hill, where Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh stands accused of sexual misconduct more than three decades ago.

 

The Cosby case “really raised awareness of the pervasiveness of … sexual misconduct against subordinates and against women of relatively less power,” said Daniel Filler, dean of Drexel University’s law school. “For jurors, I think it’s inherently changed the credibility of the accusers.”

 

The judge ruled on Cosby’s “sexually violent predator” status after a psychologist for the state testified that the entertainer appears to have a mental disorder that gives him an uncontrollable urge to have sex with women without their consent. When the ruling came down, a woman in the courtroom shot her fist into the air and whispered, “Yessss!”

 

In a statement submitted to the court and released Tuesday, Constand, 45, said that she has had to cope with years of anxiety and self-doubt. She said she now lives alone with her two dogs and has trouble trusting people.

 

“When the sexual assault happened, I was a young woman brimming with confidence and looking forward to a future bright with possibilities,” she wrote in her five-page statement. “Now, almost 15 years later, I’m a middle-aged woman who’s been stuck in a holding pattern for most of her adult life, unable to heal fully or to move forward.”

 

She also wrote of Cosby: “We may never know the full extent of his double life as a sexual predator, but his decades-long reign of terror as a serial rapist is over.”

 

The AP does not typically identify people who say they are victims of sexual assault unless they come forward publicly, which Constand and other accusers have done.

 

Constand went to police a year after waking up in a fog at Cosby’s gated estate, her clothes askew, only to have the district attorney pass on the case.

 

Another district attorney reopened the file a decade later and charged the TV star after stand-up comic Hannibal Buress’ riff about Cosby being a rapist prompted more accusers to come forward and after a federal judge, acting on a request from The Associated Press, unsealed some of Cosby’s startling, decade-old testimony in Constand’s related civil suit.

 

In his testimony, Cosby described sexual encounters with a string of actresses, models and other young women and talked about obtaining quaaludes to give to those he wanted to sleep with.

 

Cosby’s first trial in 2017 ended with a hung jury. He was convicted at a retrial that opened months after the #MeToo movement had taken down such figures as Hollywood studio boss Harvey Weinstein, NBC’s Matt Lauer, actor Kevin Spacey and Sen. Al Franken.

 

Constand said Cosby gave her what she thought were herbal pills to ease stress, then penetrated her with his fingers as she lay immobilized on a couch. Cosby claimed the encounter was consensual, and his lawyers branded her a “con artist” who framed the comedian to get a big payday — a $3.4 million settlement she received over a decade ago.

 

Five other accusers took the stand at the trial as part of an effort by prosecutors to portray him as a predator.

 

Cosby, whose estimated fortune once topped $400 million, broke barriers in the 1960s as the first black actor to star in a network show, “I Spy.” He went on to superstardom as wise and understanding Dr. Cliff Huxtable on “The Cosby Show,” a sitcom that showed America a new kind of black TV family: a warm and loving household led by two professionals, one a lawyer, the other a doctor.

 

He also found success with his Saturday morning cartoon “Fat Albert,” appeared in commercials for Jello-O pudding and became a public moralist, lecturing the black community about young people stealing things and wearing baggy pants. He won a Presidential Medal of Freedom and countless Emmys, Golden Globes and Grammy awards.

 

As the allegations mounted, his career all but collapsed, “Cosby Show” reruns were taken off the air, and one college after another stripped him of his honorary degrees.

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American Expands Inflight Food Options on Domestic Routes

American Airlines is expanding its inflight food options with the addition of a light and healthy Mediterranean menu.

The world’s largest carrier on Monday announced an agreement with the restaurant chain Zoe’s Kitchen.

 

American, which is based in Fort Worth, Texas, says the new Zoe’s Kitchen menu will be sold on most domestic flights longer than three hours beginning Dec. 1. Options will include hummus topped with olives, a turkey sandwich with specialty cheese and crunchy Mediterranean slaw, and a chicken wrap with roasted tomatoes, arugula and artichokes.

 

American currently serves cookies and mini pretzels for free during flights over 250 miles (400 kilometers). Sandwiches, wraps and snack boxes are also available for sale on most domestic flights.

 

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Bill Cosby’s Day of Reckoning Arrives in Court

A defense psychologist testified at Bill Cosby’s sentencing Tuesday that the chances of the comedian committing another sex offense are “extraordinarily low” because he is old, blind and needs help getting around.

Psychologist Timothy Foley took the stand as the 81-year-old TV star waited to learn his punishment for drugging and sexually assaulting a woman at his suburban Philadelphia estate in 2004. The comic once known as America’s Dad faced anywhere from probation to 10 years in prison after being convicted in April in the first celebrity trial of the (hash)MeToo era.

Foley said the recidivism rate is negligible for sex offenders older than 70.

 

“Given that he’s 81, blind, has been convicted of a sex offense and will be supervised,” it’s extremely unlikely Cosby would commit another such crime, Foley testified.

 

Cosby’s lawyers called Foley to the stand as they fought to keep him from being declared a “sexually violent predator,” which would make him subject to mandatory lifetime counseling and community notification.

 

Defense attorney Joseph Green started the second day of Cosby’s sentencing hearing by getting a psychologist for the state to acknowledge it’s possible Cosby is in “full remission” from a psychological disorder she says gives him the uncontrollable urge to assault women.

 

Cosby hasn’t been accused of committing a sexual assault in the 14 years since he violated former Temple University women’s basketball administrator Andrea Constand.

 

Prosecutors on Monday asked a judge to give the comedian five to 10 years behind bars, while his lawyers asked for house arrest, saying Cosby is too old and helpless to do time in prison.

 

Cosby was smiling and joking with his spokesman and sheriff’s deputies as he settled into the courtroom Tuesday. On Day 1 of the sentencing, the comic laughed at times as the psychologist on the stand for the state portrayed him as a sexual predator with signs of a mental disorder.

 

Cosby spokesman Andrew Wyatt said the former TV star planned to remain silent when given the opportunity to address the court Tuesday. Cosby did not testify at either of his two trials.

 

In the years since Constand first went to authorities in 2005, more than 60 women have accused Cosby of sexual misconduct, though none of those claims have led to criminal charges.

 

Tuesday’s sentencing was a reckoning accusers and prosecutors said was decades in the making for the once-beloved entertainer known for his role as wise and understanding Dr. Cliff Huxtable on the top-ranked, 1980s-era “Cosby Show.”

 

“The victims cannot be un-raped. Unfortunately, all we can do is hold the perpetrator accountable,” said Gianna Constand, the victim’s mother, who testified Monday that her daughter’s buoyant personality was forever changed after the attack.

 

On Monday, Green urged Judge Steven O’Neill to ignore the protests and activism surrounding the case and send Cosby home.

 

“The suggestion that Mr. Cosby is dangerous is not supported by anything other than the frenzy,” Green said as demonstrators gathered outside the courthouse.

 

Montgomery County District Attorney Kevin Steele said Cosby would no doubt commit similar crimes if given the chance, warning that the former TV star seemingly gets a sexual thrill out of slipping women drugs and assaulting them.

 

“To say that he’s too old to do that – to say that he should get a pass, because it’s taken this long to catch up to what he’s done?” Steele said, his voice rising. “What they’re asking for is a ‘get out of jail free’ card.”

 

The AP does not typically identify people who say they are victims of sexual assault unless they come forward publicly, which Constand and other accusers have done.

 

Cosby became the first black actor to star in a prime-time TV show, “I Spy,” in 1965. He remained a Hollywood A-lister for much of the next half-century.

 

The proceedings took place as another extraordinary (hash)MeToo drama continued to unfold on Capitol Hill, where Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh faces allegations of sexual misconduct from more than three decades ago.

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Archaeologists Discover ‘Massive’ Ancient Building in Egypt

Egypt says archaeologists have discovered a “massive” ancient building in the town of Mit Rahina, 20 kilometers, or 12 miles, south of Cairo.

The Antiquities Ministry says Tuesday archaeologists also uncovered an attached building that includes a large Roman bath and a chamber likely for religious rituals.

Mostafa Waziri, secretary general of the Supreme Council of Antiquities, says the building is likely part of the residential block of the area, which was the ancient Egyptian capital of Memphis.

Memphis, founded around 3,100 B.C., was home to Menes, the king who united Upper and Lower Egypt.

Egypt hopes such discoveries will spur tourism, partially driven by antiquities sightseeing, which was hit hard by political turmoil following the 2011 uprising.

 

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For Bill Cosby and Chief Accuser, a Day of Reckoning Arrives

Bill Cosby faces a good chance of being sent to prison Tuesday, when a judge is expected to sentence the TV star who was convicted of drugging and sexually assaulting a woman in 2004.

 

Cosby, 81, will have the opportunity to speak in court before he is sentenced.

 

The once-beloved actor and comedian, dubbed “America’s Dad” for his role as Dr. Cliff Huxtable on the top-ranked, 1980s-era “Cosby Show,” faces anything from probation to 10 years in prison for drugging and molesting Andrea Constand, a Temple University basketball administrator, at his estate near Philadelphia. She went to police a year later, only to have a prosecutor turn down the case.

In the years since Constand first went to police in 2005, more than 60 women have accused Cosby of sexual misconduct, though none of those claims have led to criminal charges.

 

Cosby is the first celebrity of the (hash)MeToo era to go on trial, and the first to be convicted.

 

It’s a reckoning that accusers and prosecutors say has been decades in the making.

 

“The victims cannot be un-raped. Unfortunately, all we can do is hold the perpetrator accountable,” said Gianna Constand, the trial victim’s mother, who testified Monday that her daughter’s buoyant personality was forever changed after the attack.

 

The hearing is set to conclude Tuesday after testimony from a defense psychologist who believes Cosby is no longer a danger, given his age, and should not be branded a “sexually violent predator.”

 

Defense lawyer Joseph Green Jr. urged the judge ignore the protests and activism surrounding the case, and send Cosby home on house arrest.

 

“The suggestion that Mr. Cosby is dangerous is not supported by anything other than the frenzy,” Green said, as demonstrators gathered outside the suburban Philadelphia courthouse.

 

Being labeled a sexually violent predator would make him subject to mandatory lifetime counseling and community notification of his whereabouts.

 

On Monday, Kristen Dudley, a psychologist for the state of Pennsylvania, testified that Cosby fits the criteria for a sexually violent predator, showing signs of a mental disorder that involves an uncontrollable urge to have nonconsensual sex with young women.

 

Montgomery County District Attorney Kevin Steele said Cosby would no doubt commit similar crimes if given the chance, warning that the former TV star seemingly gets a sexual thrill out of slipping women drugs and assaulting them.

 

“To say that he’s too old to do that — to say that he should get a pass, because it’s taken this long to catch up to what he’s done?” Steele said, his voice rising. “What they’re asking for is a `get out of jail free’ card.”

 

Cosby, he said, has shown repeatedly that he feels no remorse over his actions. And he said the sentence should send a message to others.

 

“Despite bullying tactics, despite PR teams and other folks trying to change the optics, as one lawyer for the defense put it, the bottom line is that nobody’s above the law. Nobody,” the district attorney said.

 

He urged a five- to 10-year prison sentence .

 

After testifying for several hours at two trials, the first of which ended in a hung jury, Constand spoke in court Monday for just two minutes.

 

“The jury heard me. Mr. Cosby heard me. Now all I am asking for is justice as the court sees fit,” said Andrea Constand, who submitted a much longer victim-impact statement that wasn’t read in court.

 

The AP does not typically identify people who say they are victims of sexual assault unless they come forward publicly, which Constand and other accusers have done.

 

Cosby’s side didn’t call any character witnesses, and his wife of 54 years, Camille, was not in court.

 

Cosby became the first black actor to star in a prime-time TV show, “I Spy,” in 1965. He remained a Hollywood A-lister for much of the next half-century.

 

Monday’s proceedings took place as another extraordinary (hash)MeToo drama continued to unfold on Capitol Hill, where Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh faces allegations of sexual misconduct from more than three decades ago.

 

 

 

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Justice Dept to Discuss Consumer Protection at Social Media Meeting

The U.S. Justice Department said on Monday it will hold a “listening session” with officials from more than a dozen states on Tuesday to discuss consumer protection and the technology industry, an agency official said.

The meeting, first announced on Sept. 5, was called by Attorney General Jeff Sessions to discuss whether social media companies have intentionally stifled “the free exchange of ideas.” It followed criticisms by President Donald Trump of social media outlets, alleging unfair treatment of conservatives.

Sessions will meet with attorneys general or representatives from California, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas, among others, said the official, who declined to be named.

Discussions are expected to focus on companies like Facebook, Twitter and Google owner Alphabet, which have been accused by some conservatives of seeking to exclude their ideas.

The companies have denied any bias.

As of Monday, two people familiar with the planning said that they had not yet seen an agenda for the meeting. Last Friday, a person familiar with the discussions said the Justice Department was considering delaying the meeting.

The Justice Department had previously said it had invited a bipartisan group of 24 state attorneys general to attend the Sept. 25 meeting.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has said that he worries about suppression of conservative ideas on Facebook, Twitter and other social media.

A spokeswoman for Attorney General Xavier Becerra from California, home to much of the tech industry, said that he looked forward to a “thoughtful” meeting.

Representative Greg Walden, chair of the House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee, said in a hearing this month that Twitter had made “mistakes” that, he said, minimized Republicans’ presence on its site, a practice conservatives have labeled “shadow banning.”

Twitter Chief Executive Jack Dorsey responded at the hearing that some platform’s algorithms had been changed to fix the issue.

Some of the state officials attending the meeting or sending representatives have also expressed concern about how Google uses consumer data.

Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood filed a lawsuit against Google in January 2017, accusing the company of misusing data collected from public school students who use the company’s software. That lawsuit is pending.

Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley, meanwhile, opened an investigation in November 2017 into whether Google’s data collection practices violate consumer protection laws. Hawley is also probing whether Google violated antitrust law by manipulating search results to favor its own products.

Google said at the time of the probe being opened that it had “strong privacy protections in place for our users and continue to operate in a highly competitive and dynamic environment.”

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European Union Sets Up Payment System with Iran to Maintain Trade

The five remaining parties to the Iran nuclear deal have agreed to establish a special payment system to allow companies to continue doing business with the regime, bypassing new sanctions imposed by the United States.

Envoys from Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and Iran issued a statement late Monday from the United Nations announcing the creation of a “Special Purpose Vehicle” that will be established in the European Union. The parties said the new mechanism was created to facilitate payments related to Iranian exports, including oil. 

Federica Mogherini, EU’s foreign policy chief, told reporters after the deal was announced that the SPV gives EU member states “a legal entity to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran…and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran in accordance to European Union law and could be open to other partners in the world.”

Mogherini said the financial agreement is also aimed at preserving the agreement reached in 2015 with Iran to scale back its nuclear program in exchange for relief from strict economic sanctions. The deal was reached under then-President Barack Obama, but Obama’s successor, Donald Trump, pulled out of the accord in May of this year, saying it didn’t address Tehran’s ballistic missile program or its influence in the Middle East.

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Instagram Co-founders Resign

The co-founders of Instagram are resigning their positions with the social media company.

 

Chief Executive Kevin Systrom said in a statement late Monday that he and Mike Krieger plan to leave the company in the next few weeks.

 

Krieger is chief technical officer. They founded the photo-sharing app in 2010 and sold it to Facebook in 2012 for about $1 billion.

 

There was no immediate word on why they chose to leave the company but Systrom says they plan to take time off to explore their creativity again.

Representatives for Instagram and Facebook didn’t immediately respond to after-hours messages from The Associated Press.

 

Instagram has seen explosive growth since its founding, with an estimated 1 billion monthly users and 2 million advertisers.

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