Month: June 2017

China and Vietnam face a stiff new test in avoiding a showdown over undersea oil drilling after Beijing cut short a high-level meeting last week, but experts say the two sides will eventually patch things over.  

Fan Changlong, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission left early from a “defense border meeting” in Vietnam Thursday due to “working arrangements,” the official Xinhua News Agency in Beijing reported. Fan had met earlier in the week with Vietnam’s Communist Party general secretary, president and prime minister.

Talks cancelled 

Neither side is saying officially whether something else led to the cancellation. Analysts who track Vietnam believe it comes down to a disputed South China Sea oil exploration tract in Vietnam’s hands as well as Hanoi’s recent contact with Chinese rivals Japan and the United States.  

“Most analysts believe China was either sending Vietnam a signal about its deepening ties with the U.S. and Japan or pressing it to stop exploring for oil near China’s nine-dash line or maybe both,” said Murray Hiebert, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.

China claims most of South China Sea

China claims more than 90 percent of the sea, citing a so-called “nine-dash” demarcation line, though a world arbitration court rejected the legal basis for that claim in 2016.

“Unless Hanoi reads the signal correctly and makes the changes China demands, we can expect Beijing to send more warning shots across Vietnam’s bow in the months to come,” Hiebert said.

Beijing claims to the 3.5 million-square-kilometer sea overlap Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone 370 kilometers off its east and south coasts.

Vietnam explores for oil

China probably pulled its general out of the talks to warn Vietnam about oil exploration at block 136, said Le Hong Hiep, research fellow with ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. The block lies southeast of mainland Vietnam and near a nine-dash line that China uses to mark its maritime claims stretching from Brunei and Malaysia past the Philippines to Taiwan.

Before cutting short his visit, the Chinese general told Vietnamese leaders the South China Sea islands had belonged to China “since ancient times,” Xinhua said. China uses historic usage as a basis for its maritime claims. 

“From the Vietnamese perspective, it’s on the continental shelf of Vietnam and Vietnam has sovereign rights over that area, and furthermore after the ruling last year by the arbitral tribunal, China does not have any legitimate claim over that area,” Le said.

Other reasons for the general to leave 

China probably bristled further when the Vietnamese prime minister met U.S. President Donald Trump in May and a group of Japanese politicians the following week. China resents Japan and the United States for offering military aid for Southeast Asian claimants to the disputed sea.  

Oil exploration disputes have caused previous confrontations in the volatile China-Vietnam maritime rivalry, giving the latest disagreement a risky edge.

Past incidents 

In 2011, Chinese vessels, in the same region in question today, cut a cable being placed underwater by a Vietnamese survey crew, the government in Hanoi said then. In 2014, vessels rammed one another as China’s chief offshore driller positioned an oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam.

Disputes over maritime sovereignty led to deadly clashes between Vietnam and China in 1974 and 1988, as well.

Hanoi’s state-owned oil firm Petrovietnam says on its website that in 2013 it had signed a contract to explore for oil again at block 136. 

“But China insists it’s still a disputed area and they believe that Vietnam is violating a common understanding between the leaderships of the two countries,” Le said. “In the background there is some resentment against Vietnam’s recent rapprochement with the U.S. and Japan as well, so I think there are a few things at work here.”

Reconciliation expected 

Vietnam will probably try to put aside the Chinese general’s sudden departure to get along with China, experts say.

“Vietnam cannot afford to have permanent antagonistic relations with China or to go out of their way to antagonize China because they have to sleep with their eyes open every night,” said Carl Thayer, Southeast Asia-specialized emeritus professor of politics at The University of New South Wales in Australia. China has the world’s third strongest armed forces after the United States and Russia.

Calculated exchange 

Exchanges over border issues work for both sides, he added. “One, it’s a positive step, but two it also served propaganda functions for both sides to beam back into their country, to netizens who hate each other, cooperation of a positive nature.” 

Vietnam and China stepped up dialogue after the world arbitration ruling. Border defense talks had been in place since 2013. Senior leaders also met in January to discuss maritime cooperation that could include a joint search for undersea oil or gas. Both countries also value the sea’s fisheries. 

China, for its part “has attached high importance to the development of military relations with Vietnam and is willing to join hands with the Vietnam side to further push forward the ties,” Xinhua quotes the Chinese general saying last week. 

“Both countries know that they will have to continue to work towards finding a balance where they can both benefit economically and co-exist politically,” said Jonathan Spangler, director of the South China Sea Think Tank in Taipei.
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Japanese air bag maker Takata Corp. has filed for bankruptcy protection in Tokyo and the U.S., overwhelmed by lawsuits and recall costs related to its production of faulty air bag inflators that are linked to the death of at least 16 people.

The company announced the expected action Monday morning Tokyo time. Takata confirmed that most of its assets will be bought by rival Key Safety Systems, based in suburban Detroit. Key will pay about $1.6 billion (175 billion yen), according to an announcement by the two companies.

Takata’s defective inflators can explode with too much force when they fill up an air bag, spewing out shrapnel. Besides the fatalities, they’re also responsible for at least 180 injuries, and touched off the largest automotive recall in U.S. history. So far 100 million inflators have been recalled worldwide including 69 million in the U.S., affecting 42 million vehicles.

Under the agreement with Key, Takata’s manufacturing of inflators will be kept separate in order to keep manufacturing inflators used as replacement parts in recalls. The recalls, which are being handled by 19 affected automakers, will continue.

Key also said it won’t cut any Takata jobs or close any of Takata’s facilities.

At the end of April, only 22 percent of the 69 million recalled inflators in the U.S. had been replaced under the recalls, leaving almost 54 million on the roads, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration website. This means more inflators will likely explode and more people will be hurt in the future, lawyers say.

Takata’s troubles stem from use of the explosive chemical ammonium nitrate in the inflators to deploy air bags in a crash. The chemical can deteriorate when exposed to hot and humid air and burn too fast, blowing apart a metal canister.

Key, a Chinese company with international operations, makes inflators, seat belts and crash sensors for the auto industry. It is owned by China’s Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp. Its global headquarters and U.S. technical center is in Sterling Heights, Michigan.

At least $1 billion from the sale to Key is expected to be used to satisfy Takata’s settlement of criminal charges in the U.S. for concealing problems with the inflators. Of that amount, $850 million goes to automakers to cover their costs of the recalls. Takata already has paid $125 million into a fund for victims and a $25 million fine to the U.S. Justice Department. 

Attorneys for those injured by the inflators worry that $125 million won’t be enough to fairly compensate victims, many of whom have serious facial injuries from metal shrapnel. One 26-year-old plaintiff will never be able to smile due to nerve damage, his attorney says.

The Takata corporate name may not live on after the bankruptcy. The company, founded in 1933, says on its website that its products have kept people safe, and it apologizes for problems caused by the faulty inflators. “We hope the day will come when the word `Takata’ becomes synonymous with `safety,”‘  the website says.
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The global economy has picked up and prospects for the next few months are the best in a long time.

But the recovery is maturing and faces risks from populist rejection of free trade and from high debt that could burden consumers and companies as interest rates rise.

Those were key takeaways from a review of the global economy released Sunday by the Bank for International Settlements, an international organization for central banks based in Basel, Switzerland.

The report said that “the global economy’s performance has improved considerably and that its near-term prospects appear the best in a long time.” Global growth should reach 3.5 percent this year, according to a summary of forecasts, not quite what it was before the Great Recession but in line with long-term averages. Meanwhile, financial markets for stocks and bonds have been unusually buoyant and steady.

On top of that, forecasts by governments and international organizations as well as by private analysts point to “further gradual improvement” in coming months.

Key risks include a possible weakening of consumer spending across different economies. So far, the recovery has been largely fueled by people being willing and able to spend more. But that trend could fall victim to higher levels of debt as interest rates rise in some countries and as the amount people need to spend to service their debts takes a bigger chunk of income.

Countries that were slammed by collapsing real estate markets during the Great Recession seem less vulnerable now, such as the United States, the U.K., and Spain. But debt burdens are more worrisome in a range of other countries mentioned in the report, including China, Australia and Norway.

Another risk comes from weak business investment, typically the second stage of recovery after consumers start spending more; yet that kind of spending has lagged its pre-recession levels for reasons that aren’t always clear to economists.

The BIS urged governments around the world to take advantage of the economic recovery as an opportunity to make growth more resistant to trouble by implementing pro-business and pro-growth measures.

In particular, the report warned against a backlash against globalization, saying that trade and interconnected financial markets had led to higher standards of living and lifted large parts of the world’s population out of poverty. It called for domestic policies to address inequality and lost jobs, saying that changing technology was often to blame, not free trade. “Attempts to roll back globalization would be the wrong response to these challenges,” it said.

 
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A second U-turn this year by Ford Motor Co. in Mexico has raised the specter of Chinese competition for local carmaking, adding to pressure on the industry after repeated threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to saddle it with punitive tariffs.

Ford announced on Tuesday it would move some production of its Focus small car to China instead of Mexico, a step that follows the U.S. automaker’s January cancellation of a planned $1.8 billion plant in the central state of San Luis Potosi.

The scrapping of the Ford plant was a bitter blow, coming after U.S. President Donald Trump had blamed the country for hollowing out U.S manufacturing on the campaign trail, and threatened to impose hefty tariffs on cars made in Mexico.

Since then, rhetoric from the Trump administration has become more conciliatory, and Mexico and the United States have expressed confidence that the renegotiation of the NAFTA trade deal, expected to begin in August, could benefit both nations.

But the loss of the Focus business is an unwelcome reminder of competition Mexico faces from Asia at a time China’s auto exports and the quality of its cars are rising.

“For a long time, the quality of vehicles coming out of China was not to global standards. There was a gap in quality that [favored] Mexico – but that is closing,” said Philippe Houchois, an analyst covering the auto industry at investment bank Jefferies. “That is probably a threat to Mexico.”

In the past decade, global automakers have invested heavily in Chinese factories to make them capable of building cars at quality levels that make the grade in developed markets.

Ford’s decision to shift Focus production for the United States market to China from Mexico shows automakers have increasing flexibility to choose between the two countries to supply niche vehicles to American consumers or other markets.

‘Very Troubling’

Demand for small cars in the United States is waning and General Motors Co. faces a similar situation to Ford’s with its Chevrolet Cruze compact.

Were GM to go down the same path with the Cruze and shift its production out of U.S. factories, it could give more work to its Mexican plants – but might also bring its Chinese operations in Shenyang or Yantai into play.

GM did not immediately reply to a request for comment on its plans for the Cruze.

Studies show Mexican manufacturing is competitive, and business leaders believe that NAFTA talks between Mexico, the United States and Canada could ultimately yield tougher regional content rules for the region that benefit local investment.

Ford said its decision balanced cheaper Chinese labor rates against pricier shipping, but that in the end an already-planned refit of its Chinese factory saved it some $500 million over retooling both that facility and its Hermosillo plant in Mexico.

The volatile state of U.S.-Mexican trade relations also carries big risks if Trump renews his threats to impose 35-percent tariffs on cars made in Mexico.

To be sure, Trump has also threatened to levy 45-percent tariffs on Chinese goods and his Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said he found Ford’s China move “very troubling.”

Trump’s threats have battered the peso, ironically making Mexico’s goods cheaper. Uncertainty over the future of NAFTA pushed the currency to a record low in January, although it has since rebounded.

That same month, the Boston Consulting Group published an assessment of manufacturing competitiveness that gave Mexico an 11-percent lead over China.

That advantage has prompted global firms to plow billions of dollars into the Mexican auto industry, pushing output to record highs. Some officials in the automotive sector painted Ford’s move as a one-off decision.

“There’s still very dynamic investment and growth in plants,” said Alfredo Arzola, director of the automotive cluster in Guanajuato state, one of Mexico’s top carmaking hubs.

Still, there have been “significant quality improvements” in Chinese cars, consultancy J.D. Power said in a 2016 study.

Chinese car manufacturing could catch up with international standards in China by 2018 or 2019, said Jacob George, general manager of J.D. Power’s Asia Pacific Operations, citing the consultancy’s gauge of “hard quality”, or failures.

However, when measured in terms of “perceptual” quality, China was probably still some 4 to 6 years behind, he added.
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After starting work in a hotel kitchen, Zhai Meiqin began selling furniture and built a billion-dollar conglomerate, but she took great pride in being recognized this week for driving a new phenomenon in China: philanthropy.

Zhai, one of China’s richest women and president of the privately owned HeungKong Group Ltd., said she never forgot her humble upbringing in Guangzhou in southern China, where her father was an architect and her mother worked in a store.

This made her determined to help others, and she started donating to charity shortly after setting up the business with her husband in 1990.

As their business grew, taking in real estate, financial investment and health care, Zhai broke new ground in 2005 by establishing China’s first nonprofit charitable foundation.

Since then, the HeungKong Charitable Foundation has helped an estimated 2 million people, by funding 1,500 libraries, providing loans for women to start businesses, and funding orphans, single mothers, handicapped children and the elderly.

“I realized there were a lot of poor people in China and this drove me to earn more money so I could help them,” said Zhai, 53, who was one of nine philanthropists named Thursday as winners of the 2017 Carnegie Medal of Philanthropy.

Zhai and her husband, Liu Zhiqiang, whose HeungKong Group with 20,000 staffers has made them worth about $1.4 billion, according to Forbes magazine, are known for being leaders of the culture of philanthropy in China.

Their foundation was listed as number 001 by the Ministry of Civil Affairs. Zhai said at the end of 2015 there were 3,300 registered nonprofit charitable foundations in China.

Next generation

“By setting up the foundation, I wanted to encourage other people, other entrepreneurs, to also donate to charity,” she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation in a phone interview from Guangzhou translated by her daughter.

“Now I want to make sure that the next generation continues this culture of philanthropy in China,” she added, with two of her four children taking an active role in her foundation.

The other philanthropists to win the Carnegie Medal — which was established in 2001 and is awarded every two years — came from around  the globe.

The list included India’s education-focused Azim Premji, Canadian-born social enterprise pioneer Jeff Skoll and American-Australian lawyer and former World Bank Group President James Wolfensohn.

The winners were chosen by a committee made up of seven people representing some of the 22 Carnegie institutions in the United States and Europe.
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