Month: April 2017

On April 6, Ivanka Trump’s company won provisional approval from the Chinese government for three new trademarks, giving it monopoly rights to sell Ivanka brand jewelry, bags and spa services in the world’s second-largest economy. That night, the first daughter and her husband, Jared Kushner, sat next to the president of China and his wife for a steak and Dover sole dinner at Mar-a-Lago.

The scenario underscores how difficult it is for Trump, who has tried to distance herself from the brand that bears her name, to separate business from politics in her new position at the White House.

As the first daughter crafts a political career from her West Wing office, her brand is flourishing, despite boycotts and several stores limiting her merchandise. U.S. imports, almost all of them from China, shot up an estimated 166 percent last year, while sales hit record levels in 2017. The brand, which Trump still owns, says distribution is growing. It has launched new activewear and affordable jewelry lines and is working to expand its global intellectual property footprint. In addition to winning the approvals from China, Ivanka Trump Marks LLC applied for at least nine new trademarks in the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Canada and the U.S. after the election.

‘Put business on hold,’ some say

The commercial currents of the Trump White House are unprecedented in modern American politics, ethics lawyers say. They have created an unfamiliar landscape riven with ethical pitfalls, and forced consumers and retailers to wrestle with the unlikely passions now inspired by Ivanka Trump’s mid-market collection of ruffled blouses, shifts and wedges.

Using the prestige of government service to build a brand is not illegal. But criminal conflict of interest law prohibits federal officials, like Trump and her husband, from participating in government matters that could impact their own financial interest or that of their spouse. Some argue that the more her business broadens its scope, the more it threatens to encroach on the ability of two trusted advisers to deliver credible counsel to the president on core issues like trade, intellectual property, and the value of the Chinese currency.

“Put the business on hold and stop trying to get trademarks while you’re in government,” advised Richard Painter, who served as chief White House ethics lawyer under George W. Bush.

To address ethical concerns, Trump has shifted the brand’s assets to a family-run trust valued at more than $50 million and pledged to recuse herself from issues that present conflicts.

“Ivanka will not weigh in on business strategy, marketing issues, or the commercial terms of agreements,” her attorney, Jamie Gorelick, said in a statement. “She has retained authority to direct the trustees to terminate agreements that she determines create a conflict of interest or the appearance of one.”

In a recent interview with CBS News, Trump argued that her business would be doing even better if she hadn’t moved to Washington and placed restrictions on her team to ensure that “any growth is done with extreme caution.”

China ties

China, however, remains a nagging concern. “Ivanka has so many China ties and conflicts, yet she and Jared appear deeply involved in China contacts and policy. I would never have allowed it,” said Norman Eisen, who served as chief White House ethics lawyer under Barack Obama. “For their own sake, and the country’s, Ivanka and Jared should consider stepping away from China matters.”

Instead, the first daughter and her husband have emerged as prominent interlocutors with China, where they have both had significant business ties. Last year, Kushner pursued hundreds of millions of dollars in real estate investments from Anbang Insurance Group, a financial conglomerate with close ties to the Chinese state. After media reports about the deal, talks were called off.

Publicly, Ivanka Trump has taken a gracious, charming approach toward Beijing. During the Mar-a-Lago meetings, her daughter, 5-year-old Arabella, stood in a gilded room and sang a traditional Chinese song, in Mandarin, for China’s president, Xi Jinping. The video, which was lavishly praised by Chinese state media, played over 2.2 million times on China’s popular news portal qq.com.

The week of the summit, 3.4 tons of Ivanka Trump handbags, wallets and blouses arrived in the U.S. from Hong Kong and Shanghai. U.S. imports of her merchandise grew an estimated 40 percent in the first quarter of this year, according to Panjiva Inc., which maintains and analyzes global shipping records.

Painter, the former Bush administration lawyer, recommended full recusal from issues related to trade with China. That is likely to be difficult because trade is so deeply embedded in the U.S.-China relationship and has been linked with other matters, like North Korea.

“The danger is that with any discussion with the Chinese, one party or the other may try to bring up trade,” he said. “That’s a slippery slope that may require her or Jared to step out of the room.”

Gorelick, Ivanka Trump’s attorney, said that Trump and her husband would steer clear of specific areas that could impact her business, or be seen as conflicts of interest, but are under no legal obligation to step back from huge swaths of policy, like trade with China.

Under the rules, Trump would recuse herself from conversations about duties on clothing imported from China, Gorelick said, but not broad foreign policy.

“In between, you have to assess it case-by-case,” she said.

Trademark questions

Trademarks can be signs of corporate ambition, though many countries — such as China, where trademark squatting is rampant — also allow for defensive filings to prevent copycats from using a brand.

Trademarks pose ethical, and possibly legal, implications for government employees because they are granted by foreign states and confer the monopoly right to sell branded product in a particular country — an entitlement that can be enormously valuable. Intellectual property lawyers say trademarks are also a crucial prerequisite for cutting licensing deals, which form the basis of both Ivanka Trump’s and Donald Trump’s global business strategy.

Today, Ivanka Trump Marks LLC has 16 registered trademarks in China and 32 pending applications, along with a total of four marks granted preliminary approval since the inauguration, according to China’s Trademark Office. Altogether, they cover a wide range of goods and services, including cosmetics, jewelry, leather handbags, luggage, clothes, shoes, retail, spa and beauty services. There is no sign the recent approvals were particularly swift. China’s Trademark Office did not respond to a request for comment.

Globally, the company has more than 180 pending and registered trademarks in countries including Canada, India, Japan, Israel, Mexico, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, as well as the U.S. and Europe, public records show. In December, the company applied for five trademarks, covering handbags and wallets in Puerto Rico, and lingerie and other clothes in the U.S. After the inauguration, the company filed four more applications, for branded clothing and shoes in the Philippines, and perfume and other items in Canada.

Trump did not sign off on the new trademark applications, her brand said in a statement, adding that they are “not necessarily an indication that the brand is planning to launch a category or a store in a specific territory.”

Growing sales

Whatever the future plans, right now sales are growing — helped, some argue, by the glow of Ivanka Trump’s political rise.

The G-III Apparel Group Ltd., which makes Ivanka Trump clothes, said net sales for the collection increased by $17.9 million during the year that ended Jan. 31.

The brand itself claims revenues rose 21 percent last year, with early February seeing some of the “best performance ever,” according to a statement by Abigail Klem, president of the Ivanka Trump brand.  Because it is privately held, the brand does not have to declare its earnings or where revenues come from. The actual corporate structure of Trump’s retail business remains opaque. Kushner’s financial disclosure form lists two dozen corporate entities that appear directly related to his wife’s brand. Trump herself has yet to file a disclosure.

Data from Lyst, a massive fashion e-commerce platform, indicates some of this growth coincided with specific political events.

The number of Ivanka Trump items sold through Lyst was 46 percent higher the month her father was elected president than in November 2015. Sales spiked 771 percent in February over the same month last year, after White House counselor Kellyanne Conway exhorted Fox viewers to “Go buy Ivanka’s stuff.” Conway was later reprimanded. The bounce appears somewhat sustained. March sales on Lyst were up 262 percent over the same period last year.

“You can’t separate Ivanka from her role in life and from her business,” said Allen Adamson, founder of Brand Simple Consulting. “Her celebrity status is now not only being fueled by her wealth and her family connection, but by her huge role in the White House. All that buzz is hardwired to her products.” That, he added, is a competitive advantage other brands just can’t match — though it does come with risk.

Things could easily cut the other way for the first daughter. Ashley King, 28 of Calabasas, California, bought Ivanka Trump black flats and a cardigan several years ago. But King, who voted for Hillary Clinton, said she believes Trump’s role in the White House represents a conflict of interest.

“This is bothering me more and more,” she said. As for the Ivanka Trump items in her closet, she said, “I will be donating them.”
…

The International Monetary Fund says the global economic outlook is “brightening,” but warns that “protectionism” and geopolitical tensions could hurt economic growth.

The IMF published the report Tuesday, ahead of this week’s gathering of top economic officials from around the world for meetings of the World Bank and the IMF.

The IMF’s Maurice Obstfeld told journalists that global growth will probably accelerate from a 3.1 percent annual rate in 2016 to 3.6 percent in 2018. He says commodity prices have “firmed” since early last year, but at a relatively low level. That leaves commodity exporters in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America with challenges. He also says bad weather and civil unrest mean several low-income nations face mass starvation. 

In the report, economists say there are many “downside risks” including political pressure to restrict trade, which they argue will hurt rather than help growth. The report’s authors say slow and unequal income growth, meager growth in productivity, the financial crisis, and other problems have generated political support for “zero-sum” approaches to trade. Obstfeld says nations that pull out of the multilateral trading system could suffer a “self-inflicted wound.”

The IMF says in many cases, wages have not kept up with rising productivity, and labor’s share of national incomes has dropped. These experts urge policymakers to do more to ensure that the gains from growth and trade are shared more widely. What will help, they suggest, are tax changes, investments in skills, and efforts to make it easier for workers to move to find new opportunities.
…

The Trump administration says it is time for tougher enforcement of rules governing the hiring of certain foreign workers in the United States, and to review laws requiring U.S. government agencies to use American-made products.

President Donald Trump is scheduled to sign an executive order regarding “Buy American/Hire American” rules on Tuesday as he visits a tool-making manufacturer in the midwestern state of Wisconsin.

In a briefing for journalists, senior administration officials said lax enforcement and numerous legal loopholes mean American workers and companies lose jobs and business to foreign competition, which hurts the U.S. economy.

Trump is signing the order even though he built a global business empire before running for the White House in which he regularly outsourced the manufacture of dozens of consumer products to overseas locations. Trump-branded products, including ties, suits, dress shirts, furniture, bedding, vodka, home goods and accessories for his luxury hotels, have all been manufactured outside the United States, although some of his goods are made in the U.S.

In all, the Trump products have been made in 12 countries, including China, Mexico, India, Germany and other nations around the globe.

As president, Trump has held onto ownership of his vast real estate and business holdings, despite complaints from ethics experts who say he should divest himself of any financial interests to avoid potential conflicts of interest. Trump has turned over management of his business empire to his two adult sons, Donald Trump, Jr. and Eric Trump, and says he will have no contact with them about their business decisions.

Under the order Trump is signing, government agencies are being directed to review their procurement practices and require that exceptions to the “buy American” rules be approved by the heads of those agencies.

Officials also said government procurement portions of existing trade agreements will be reviewed to see if U.S. companies get the same chance to sell products to the governments of U.S. trading partners that foreign firms get in Washington.

Another review is aimed at rules governing visas issued to foreigners with certain skills, called the “H-1B.” The visa program is supposed to bring workers with skills that are scarce in the United States into the country; but, Trump administration officials say they are concerned that companies are hiring foreigners who do the same work as Americans at lower wages.

Government agencies are being directed to conduct “top to bottom” reviews of these rules and laws, and report problems and recommendations that may bring about changes.

 
…

Retail sales were weaker than expected in both March and February, after government data showed the worst two-month performance for the retail sector in two years. US Census data suggest the weakness was the result of lower fuel prices and reduced auto profits. But retail experts say the industry itself is changing, driven by technological and demographic change.
…

A state-backed newspaper in the United Arab Emirates that was bought by an Emirati who oversees the English soccer club Manchester City is undergoing layoffs, those with knowledge of the firings said Monday.

They told The Associated Press that staffers at The National were informed Sunday they had been let go. They spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity for fear of repercussions.

It wasn’t clear how wide the layoffs were or what specific plans The National’s new owner had for the daily newspaper. Repeated calls to the newspaper rang unanswered Monday.

The layoffs come after months of turmoil at The National, which was founded in 2008 and staffed with top writers and editors from Western newspapers. Its owner, the state-backed firm Abu Dhabi Media, hoped it would become the Mideast’s standard for independent, hard-nosed newspapering.

But while the paper broke local stories on skyscraper fire safety and other issues, it largely stayed away from controversial topics in a country with strict laws governing speech.

International Media Investments, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi Media Investment Corp. owned by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan of Manchester City, bought The National in November from Abu Dhabi Media. Sheikh Mansour’s media firm has a joint venture with Britain-based Sky to run the Arab satellite news channel Sky News Arabia.

In a statement, International Media Investments said: “The National is putting together its team, made of existing and new talent,” and will undergo “a digital transformation while retaining its print product.” It answered no questions from the AP about the layoffs.

Although the newspaper sale has yet to finalize, staffers had to reapply for jobs at the paper. All this comes as low global oil prices have pinched the economy of the United Arab Emirates, a federation of seven sheikhdoms on the Arabian Peninsula.

Sheikh Mansour is a member of the ruling family of Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s oil-rich capital. He also serves as a deputy prime minister and minister of presidential affairs.
…

Mini motorcycle and go-kart maker Monster Moto made a big bet on U.S. manufacturing by moving assembly to this Louisiana town in 2016 from China.

But it will be a long ride before it can stamp its products “Made in USA.”

The loss of nearly one out four U.S. factories in the last two decades means parts for its bike frames and engines must be purchased in China, where the manufacturing supply chain moved years ago.

“There’s just no way to source parts in America right now,” said Monster Moto Chief Executive Alex Keechle during a tour of the company’s assembly plant. “But by planting the flag here, we believe suppliers will follow.”

Monster Moto’s experience is an example of the obstacles American companies face as they, along with President Donald Trump, try to rebuild American manufacturing. U.S. automakers and their suppliers, for example, have already invested billions in plants abroad and would face an expensive and time-consuming transition to buy thousands of American-made parts if President Trump’s proposed “border tax” on imported goods were to become law.

When companies reshore assembly to U.S. soil – in Monster Moto’s case that took two years to find a location and negotiate support from local and state officials – they are betting their demand will create a local supply chain that currently does not exist.

For now, finding U.S.-based suppliers “remains one of the top challenges across our supplier base,” said Cindi Marsiglio, Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s vice president for U.S. manufacturing and sourcing. Wal-Mart partnered with Monster Moto and several other U.S. companies in a drive to increase spending on American-made goods by $250 billion by 2023 in response to consumer demand for American-made goods.

Their experience has shown Americans’ patriotic shopping habits have limits, namely when it comes to price.

Take Monster Moto’s bikes, which sell for between $249 to $749. Keechle, the CEO, says he can’t raise those prices for fear his price sensitive prospective customers will turn to less expensive rivals made in China.

“Consumers won’t give you a free pass just because you put ‘Made in USA’ on the box,” Keechle says. “You have to remain price competitive.”

Keeping a sharp eye on labor costs in their factory is one thing these U.S. Manufactures can control. They see replacing primarily lower-skilled workers on the assembly line with robots on American factory floors as the only way to produce here in a financially viable, cost-competitive way. It’s a trend that runs against the narrative candidate Donald Trump used to win the U.S. presidency.

Since taking office, Trump has continued promises to resurrect U.S. manufacturing’s bygone glory days and bring back millions of jobs. On March 31, Trump directed his administration to clamp down on countries that abuse trade rules in a bid to end to the “theft of American prosperity.”

But it’s more complicated on the ground for companies like Monster Moto.

“It’s almost as if people think you can just unplug manufacturing in one part of the world and plug it in to the U.S. and everything’s going to be fine,” said David Abney, Chief Executive Officer of package delivery company United Parcel Service Inc., which helped Monster Moto reconfigure its supply chain to bring its Chinese-made parts to Ruston.

“It’s not something that happens overnight,” he said.

A White House official said that the Trump administration’s efforts to encourage manufacturers to reshore production will be focused on cutting regulations and programs to provide new skills to manufacturing workers.

“We recognize that the manufacturing jobs that come back to America might not all look like the ones that left,” a White House official said, “and we are taking steps to ensure that the American workforce is ready for that.”

Making robots great again

In Monster Moto’s cavernous warehouse in Ruston, boxes of imported parts that are delivered at one end then become bikes on a short but industrious assembly line of a few dozen workers.

A solitary, long-bearded worker by the name of Billy Mahaffey fires up the bikes to test their engine and brakes before a small group of workers puts them in boxes declaring: “Assembled in the USA.”

Helped by that label, Monster Moto has experienced a recent boom in demand from major customers that include Wal-Mart. The company expects to double production to 80,000 units and increase its assembly workers — who make $13 to $15 an hour — to 100 from around 40 in 2017.

The most likely components Monster Moto could produce in America first are black, welded-metal frames for bikes and go-karts, but they would have to automate production because human welders would be too expensive.

“We can’t just blow up our cost structure,” said Monster Moto President Rick Sukkar. “The only way to make it work in America is with robotics.”

The same principle applies for much larger manufacturers, such as automotive supplier Delphi Automotive PLC’s.

Chief Financial Officer Joe Massaro told analysts in February that 90 percent of the company’s hourly workforce is in “best-cost countries.”

When asked about shifting production to the United States from Mexico, Massaro said depending on what happens to trade rules “it would have to be much more of the sort of the automated type manufacturing operations just given… the labor differential there.”

That trend is already showing up in data compiled by Economic Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank.

According to senior economist Rob Scott, not only did America lose 85,000 factories, or 23.5 percent of the total, from 1997 to 2014, but the average number of workers in a U.S. factory declined 14 percent to 44 in 2014 from 1997. According to Scott, much of the decline in workers was due to automation.

“We’re going to see more automation in this country because it makes good sense economically for every company,” said Hal Sirkin, a managing director at the Boston Consulting Group. “You can spend a lot of time bemoaning it, but that’s not going to change.”

Manufacturers say automated production requires fewer, but more skilled workers such as robot programmers and operators.

The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) estimates because of the “skills gap” there are 350,000 unfilled manufacturing jobs today in a sector that employs over 12 million people.

In Ruston, Mayor Ronny Walker bet on Monster Moto by guaranteeing the company’s lease because he wants to diversify the city’s economy, and envisions suppliers setting up alongside Monster Moto’s assembly plant.

“Could it take a long time to bring manufacturing back here?

Sure,” he says. “But you have to start somewhere.”
…

China’s economic recovery is gaining traction, with growth rising to its fastest pace in over a year in January-March.

The 6.9 percent annual pace of expansion for the world’s second-largest economy, reported Monday, surpassed economists’ forecasts and was an improvement from 6.8 percent growth in the last quarter of 2016.

Growth last was that strong in July-September of 2015.

Analysts said government spending and a property boom spurred by easy credit were the main factors helping to driving stronger demand.

China saw its slowest growth in nearly three decades in 2016, at 6.7 percent. The official full-year economic growth target for 2017 is 6.5 percent.

“Currently, China’s economy is demonstrating good signs of pickup in growth, overall price stability, expansion in employment and improvement in the international balance of payments,” Mao Shengyong, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters in Beijing.

Fears of being dragged into a trade and currency war with the U.S. have abated after U.S. President Donald Trump toned down his previously antagonistic comments against Beijing.

A summit earlier this month with Chinese President Xi Jinping ended calmly, and the U.S. Treasury Department did not label China a currency manipulator in its latest assessment.

During the first quarter, investment in fixed assets such as factories expanded 9.2 percent from a year earlier, while retail sales grew 10 percent. Industrial production rose 6.8 percent, including a stronger-than- expected 7.6 percent year-on-year gain in March.

Although exports have also shown sharp improvement, strong lending and investment figures suggest Beijing is relying on its traditional strategy of powering growth through government stimulus. China’s leaders have been trying to shift to an approach based more on consumer demand but tend to open the spending and credit taps at times when growth appears to be slowing too much.

“The question we need to ask is whether this investment-led model is sustainable as the authorities have trouble taming credit,” said Raymond Yeung and David Qu, economists at ANZ.

The latest figures indicate China’s economy is on track to meet its official growth target — a good sign for China’s communist leaders, who don’t like surprises and are preparing for a twice-a-decade party congress in the autumn to appoint new leaders.

“The 6.5 percent target this year, you could say it’s more important than ever, because of the political reshuffle later this year,” said Amy Zhuang, chief Asia analyst at Nordea Markets. “At least being able to maintain the stability in growth is very, very important for Beijing.”

On a quarter-to-quarter basis, which is how other major economies report data, the economy lost steam, expanding just 1.3 percent. That’s slower than 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016.

The economists at ANZ said such figures should be viewed cautiously because they might reflect changes in how the government made adjustments for seasonal factors.

Economists say they expect the boost from the government’s policies and the property boom to persist for a few more months before fading later in the year.

Real estate plays an outsize role in fueling growth in the wider Chinese economy by spurring knock-on demand in the manufacturing and service sectors.

House prices will likely start cooling this year as tighter restrictions finally kick in, but Beijing will probably take steps to offset that decline with more stimulus to meet its annual growth target, Zhuang said.
…